All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24	441.75	2
JUL ’24	453.75	2
DEC ’24	472.75	0.75

Soybeans
MAY ’24	1179.25	-4.75
JUL ’24	1191.75	-3.75
NOV ’24	1172.75	-1

Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24	547.25	9.5
JUL ’24	561	10.75
JUL ’25	627.5	10.5

K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24	598.75	10
JUL ’24	587.75	13.5
JUL ’25	628.75	11.75

Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24	670	7.25
JUL ’24	673.5	7.25
SEP ’24	678.75	7.25

S&P 500
JUN ’24	5181	-11.5

Crude Oil
MAY ’24	77.59	0.09

Gold
JUN ’24	2205.5	-0.8

Grain Market Highlights

Carryover strength from the wheat complex and a shot of hot, dry air in Brazil helped the corn market recover from overnight losses and close above the 20-day moving average for third consecutive day.
Soybeans were unable to gain from the strength in the wheat and corn markets. Instead, they chopped in two-sided trade that only briefly traded in the green, weighed down by the weakness from lower soybean meal.
A drop in Malaysia’s palm oil inventories and exports gave support to the soybean oil market which was the strong leg of the soybean complex with a higher close in today’s trade. Soybean meal on the other hand gave back more than half of yesterday’s gains and weighed on soybeans.
Despite another round of Chinese cancellations of SRW wheat totaling 9.7 mb. May Chicago wheat posted a bullish key reversal after printing a fresh contract low. KC and Minneapolis both also rallied back off their respective lows to settle higher for the third day in a row.
To see the updated US 5-day forecast precipitation, the 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 1 week percent of normal precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. In late February, after languishing in a downtrend that began last October and managed funds posting a record net short position exceeding 340,000 contracts, front month corn posted a bullish key reversal. Since that time, the market has rallied as the funds covered some of their short positions, though they remain heavily short the market, which could fuel an extended rally as we head into the spring planting window. As planting nears and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. After posting a bullish key reversal in late February, Dec ’24 rallied along with front month corn as funds exited some of their record net short position. As we quickly approach the spring planting window, a lot of uncertainty remains, and the near record short position that the funds continue to carry is supportive and could fuel further short covering and higher prices for Dec ’24. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be springtime of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market used the strength in the wheat market and South American weather concerns to finish higher on the session. May corn gained 2 cents and closed higher for the third consecutive day.
Technical indicators are showing some upward momentum building in the corn market. Short-term moving averages are looking to cross over, which could add additional short covering. May futures are challenging a key level of resistance around 440.
Weekly export inspection for corn have remained strong in this window. Last week, US exporters shipped 44.2 mb (1.122 mmt) of corn. Corn inspections are running ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA export targets, and up 33% over last year for this time.
Brazilian second crop (safrinha) corn planting is progressing quickly. Ag consultant group, AgRural, estimates that 93% of the second crop corn is planted, up 6% over last week. This is well ahead of last year’s pace of 82% for this time.
Brazil’s weather will stay a focus in the corn market. Forecasts for a ridge of heat building over central Brazil later in the week help support Brazilian and US corn prices. If weather conditions become less favorable, additional weather premium may be added into the corn market.

Above: On March 7th the corn market closed above the 20-day moving average for the first time since late December. If it can push through and close above the 435 – 445 resistance area it could test the January high of 452 ¼. If they fall back, and close below 421, the bottom of the recent range, then they may slide to test downside support between 400 and 410.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Mar. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 1,537 contracts between Feb. 28 – Mar. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 295,528 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower following impressive gains from Friday’s WASDE report despite the lack of much change from last month’s report. Soybean meal ended the day lower which was the main factor that brought soybeans lower, but soybean oil closed higher.
The USDA refused to lower its estimate for Brazilian soybean production much on Friday and only dropped it by 1 mmt to 155 mmt despite many private analysts expecting a number closer to 149 mmt. US ending stocks were lowered by 4 mb and export sales were kept unchanged despite slow export sales recently.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated at 55% complete, and the country has been receiving steady scattered showers. Argentine weather has been good as well, but on Friday, the USDA reduced its estimates for total production by 1 mmt for the two countries combined.
As of March 5, funds sold an additional 11,346 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 171,999 contracts as of Tuesday March 5. As in corn, this position is now likely much lower thanks to the higher move.

Above: After posting a low of 1128 ½ on February 29, soybeans rallied back higher on short covering. The market remains oversold on the weekly chart and continues to provide underlying support. For now, resistance above the market remains between 1190 and 1205, with initial support still just below 1130. If prices were to decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Mar. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,346 contracts between Feb. 28 – Mar. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 171,999 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three US wheat futures classes closed higher today, with double digit gains in both Chicago and Kansas City contracts. This comes despite another cancellation announced this morning of US SRW wheat to China for 23/24 in the amount of 264,000 mt.
Weekly wheat inspections at 14.8 mb bring the total 23/24 inspections number to 491 mb. On last week’s USDA report, they lowered their estimate of 23/24 wheat exports by 15 mb to 710 mb. This may be due to increased Russian competition as well as the recent Chinese cancellations.
Wheat was also higher today, despite a higher US Dollar Index, and appeared to form a near term bottom on the chart. This is potentially the result of short covering by the funds, who were short as of last Tuesday about 105,000 contracts of Chicago and KC wheat combined. With a relatively neutral report last week, traders may be feeling more confident about buying into the market.
Also aiding wheat today was a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. The Matif wheat contracts were able to rally above resistance at the 21-day moving average and were also able to close above it in September contracts forward. Chicago wheat futures remain below their respective 21-day moving averages, which may act as the next level of resistance.
The US plains states will see temporary warming before turning cooler again. Some snow will be possible next week in Colorado and the Dakotas. Looking at similar patterns in past years when March had colder than normal temperatures, it led to a dry summer. Although it is still too early to make a call on the weather, this is worth noting.
Stats Canada released data today in which they estimated all wheat acreage at 27.05 million. This is just above last year at 27.03 million, and above the average trade guess where the market was actually expecting a slight drop. Analyst estimates ranged from 26.00 to 27.40 ma. As an aside, all wheat acreage includes spring, winter, and durum wheat.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup, the July ’24 contract has suffered in a lower trend while going on to make new contract lows. Although the lack of any bullish information has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a significant net short position. Either or both could fuel a short covering rally at any time as we head into the more active part of the growing season. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July ‘24 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and recently recommended exiting half of those puts to lock in gains and get closer to a net neutral cost on the remaining position. If the market receives the needed input to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the remaining July ‘24 590 put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: With the market posting a bullish key reversal on March 11, the market may challenge the 50-day and the 100-day moving averages that coincide with the congestion area between 585 and 620. Down below the market nearby support comes in near the March 11 low of 523 ½, with further support around 470 – 488.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Mar. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,213 contracts between Feb. 28 – Mar. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 65,539 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The March 6th low of 551 ½ has held so far with the market testing the 50-day moving average. If the market can close above there, it could then make a run toward the congestion range between 610 and 640. If the market does turn lower, the next major level of support below 551 ½ may come in near 530.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Mar. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,236 contracts between Feb. 28 – Mar. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 40,886 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Feb. 27. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,830 contracts between Feb. 28 – Mar. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 24,138 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather