3-1 End of Day: Selling Resumes in Corn and Wheat to Start the Month
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’24 | 424.75 | -4.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 436.25 | -5 |
| DEC ’24 | 459.25 | -4 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’24 | 1151.25 | 10.5 |
| JUL ’24 | 1161.25 | 10 |
| NOV ’24 | 1139.75 | 6.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 557.75 | -18.5 |
| JUL ’24 | 561.25 | -18 |
| JUL ’25 | 612.75 | -11.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 564.5 | -22.75 |
| JUL ’24 | 555.5 | -18.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 599.25 | -14.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’24 | 643.75 | -15.25 |
| JUL ’24 | 648 | -14.75 |
| SEP ’24 | 654.5 | -14.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’24 | 5204.75 | 39.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’24 | 79.14 | 1.69 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’24 | 2115.4 | 40.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market was caught in the crosshairs again between sharply lower wheat and strong soybeans. After failing to follow through above the 20-day moving average, prices reversed lower in today’s trade in sympathy with the wheat complex.
- Soybeans closed higher on the day following two-sided trade that was mostly higher with support coming from higher meal. Soybeans continued to consolidate following last week’s break in prices with support still holding below the market around Thursday’s contract low of 1128 ¼.
- Soybean meal gained on oil again as the week came to a close. Strong weekly exports for meal kept support under the market as it followed through from posting a new contract low in yesterday’s trade. May soybean oil saw both sides of unchanged and mostly lower prices throughout the day before surging back to close with just a 0.05 cent loss.
- As the calendar rolled over to the month of March the sellers came out in mass in the wheat complex as it failed to close over the 20-day moving average in any of the three classes in recent days. Russian FOB offers as low as $209/mt continue to offer resistance to US prices and encourage sellers.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the 2-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, NOAA, and the NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. With a general lack of bullish news and an estimated US carryout nearing 2.2 billion bushels, front month corn has languished in a sideways to lower trend since printing a high last October. While the lack of a bullish catalyst has been disappointing, the market is in a significantly oversold condition, and managed funds continue to hold a substantial net short position. Either or both could trigger a short covering rally at any time heading into the spring planting window. As planting nears, and uncertainties increase, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales if prices recover back toward the 500 level.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In January, Dec ’24 broke through the bottom end of the 485 ¾ to 602 range that had been in place since February ’22. While this was a disappointing development, bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty ahead for the 2024 crop. Additionally, Dec ’24 is significantly oversold on the weekly chart, which is supportive for a technical rally to begin at any time as the spring planting window quickly approaches. Given the amount of time and uncertainty that remains for the 2024 crop, Grain Market Insider will consider recommending additional sales on a retracement toward the low to mid 500 level.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Strong selling in the wheat market pressured corn futures lower on the session. May corn futures lost 4 ¾ cents on the session. Despite the weakness to end the week, May corn futures gained 12 ½ cents for the week, posting a bullish hook reversal off weekly lows. This was the first time in 4 weeks corn traded higher, and only the 3rd time in the past 11 weeks.
- December corn has an improved technical picture as prices held support at the key 450 level this week. Weekly charts posted a bullish key reversal as December corn futures traded 9 ¾ cents higher on the week. Follow through strength next week will be key.
- The March contract is in delivery, but deliveries against the futures have been very small. Zero contracts on Thursday, and only 3 on Friday. The lack of deliveries is helping support the front end of the corn market. The past two sessions have seen some light bull spreading.
- China rumors have been a factor in the corn market this week. Talk of Chinese purchases of Ukrainian corn at lower prices has limited the corn market, but later in the week, whispers that China was looking for some corn exports out of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) has helped support prices. No flash sales have been announced and the market may have to wait until next week’s exports sales report. Regardless, those sales will likely be light and not move the demand needle much.
- Managed funds have been likely covering the record short position they hold in the corn market. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report had funds holding a net short position over 340,000 contracts. The updated Commitment of Traders report will be released on Friday afternoon.
Above: To begin the new month, the corn market reversed lower after hitting resistance just below 435, and it appears at this point that it may test downside support between 400 and 410 unless a positive input enters the scene to turn prices back higher.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Old crop soybeans continue to be in a downtrend that began with the early January breakout of the 1290 – 1400 range that had been in place since last fall. While South American weather has improved, questions remain regarding the crop size, and US planting season is now not that far off with its own potential concerns that could turn prices back higher. Given the potential of a downside breakout back in December, Grain Market Insider recommended adding to sales as prices remained historically good, and Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities heading into spring.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the beginning of the year, Nov ’24 has continued to recede alongside the 2023 old crop contracts as South American weather stabilized and the market deals with bourgeoning domestic supplies and slow demand. While this decline in prices is disappointing, planting season is not far off, and plenty of time remains to market this crop, with many unknowns that can rally prices yet ahead. Considering the amount of uncertainty that lies ahead with the 2024 soybean crop, Grain Market Insider recommended back in December buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls to give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production, and to protect any sales in an extended rally. Based on our research, the possibility remains that prices could retest the 2022 highs in the upper 1300s going into spring/summer, at which point Grain Market Insider would consider recommending additional sales.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher in another day of two-sided trade that saw prices lower earlier in the day before rebounding higher. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil was lower despite a sharp gain in crude oil. Despite today’s rally, soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past week.
- The CME reported a large number of deliveries against the March contract yesterday and reported more today with 502 against March soybeans, just 1 in soybean meal, and 37 against soybean oil. Today’s deliveries did not pressure prices lower like they did yesterday.
- For the week, May soybeans gained 9-1/2 cents but lost 92 cents during the month of February. May soybean meal gained $4.30 on the week while losing $34.90 in February, and May soybean oil gained 0.56 cents for the week while losing 1.33 cents last month. Over the past week, funds likely exited a portion of their net short position ahead of first notice day, and a temporary bottom could be in.
- Next week the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look to see if adjustments are made to South America’s expected production. Argentina is expected to produce double what was produced in the drought last year, and Brazil was estimated to produce 156 mmt of soybeans in the USDA’s February update despite most other analysts estimating the number closer to 149 mmt.
Above: Front month soybeans appear to have rejected the bullish reversal from February 26. However, for now, initial support between 1133 and 1140 still holds. If prices can rally back and recover from being oversold, they may hit resistance between 1190 and 1205. Otherwise, if they decline further, major support below the market may enter in around 1040 – 1050.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes today. Weakness originated from Paris milling wheat futures closing sharply lower, with losses of 3.75 to 8.00 euros per mt. This is the lowest it has traded since August 2020 and comes even though their crop ratings are relatively poor. As of February 26, just 68% of the French wheat crop was rated good to very good. This is a large decline from the 95% rating at the same time last year.
- To add to pressure today, Russian FOB values are said to be remaining steady at $209 per mt, keeping pressure on exports, and thus, futures. SovEcon has also said that Russian February wheat exports could be a record due to their very competitive prices. The exports are estimated at 3.8 mmt, which compares to 3.0 mmt last year and the 2.6 mmt average. As an aside, they are projecting 23/24 wheat exports at 48.6 mmt versus the USDA at 51 mmt.
- According to the European Commission, the EU 2023 wheat production was slightly trimmed. Harvest is estimated at 125.6 mmt compared to 125.9 mmt previously. Additionally, the wheat import forecast was increased by 0.5 mmt to 17.5 mmt. On a bearish note, though, India’s ag ministry has stated that their wheat production may exceed last year’s 110.6 mmt, with estimates of 112 mmt of production for the 23/24 season.
- Ukraine is said to have exported 8 mmt of cargo in February, with 5.2 mmt of that being ag goods. Reportedly, 113 vessels are now in Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk ports and are waiting to be loaded with about 3 mmt more cargo.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market has continued to be dominated by lower world export prices that have stymied US export sales and depressed US prices. In early December, Grain Market Insider recommended taking advantage and making a sale on a short covering rally which was sparked by several Chinese purchases of US wheat. Since then, China has been silent in the US wheat export market, and prices remain somewhat elevated. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the early December runup on Chinese buying, the July ’24 contract has gradually stair stepped its way lower and erased those gains. In the meantime, managed funds continue to hold a sizeable, short position that could trigger another short covering rally if a bullish impetus enters the market. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Although, if the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. In mid-February, July ’25 Chicago wheat broke through the bottom of the long established 632 – 685 trading range to a new low just below 600. For now, that new low is holding, and the market is correcting its oversold condition. So far, Grain Market Insider’s strategy for the 2025 crop year has been to sit tight. However, if prices rally toward the mid-600s, we will consider taking advantage of the still historically good prices to make sales recommendations.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: So far, downside support near 555 continues to hold. Funds also continue to hold a significant net short position in Chicago wheat, that could press prices higher into the 584 – 618 resistance area if they choose to cover. If prices continue above that, the next major resistance level may come in around 635 – 650. Otherwise, if they turn back lower, major support below 555 may come in around 540.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since December’s brief runup, prices have continued to erode as US exports continue to suffer from lower world export prices. Although fundamentals remain weak, considering the market is at levels not seen since spring of 2021, and funds continue to hold a considerable net short position, these factors could trigger a return to higher prices if any unforeseen risks enter the market. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices make a modest 20% retracement of the 2022 highs back toward 700.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Since the beginning of the year, the July ’24 contract has been in a downtrend alongside the front month contracts, while also setting new contract lows and becoming very oversold. During this time, managed funds have maintained a net short position in the front month of around 35,000 contracts. While this net short position is about 15,000 contracts smaller than it was at the end of November, it is still large enough to trigger a short covering rally, much like the one that began in late November, and could easily translate to higher prices for July ’24 as well as the front months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside, and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider also recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect any gains that have been made. Considering bullish headwinds remain, and the equity gained from the closed July 660 put position, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if July ‘24 retraces back toward the January highs in the mid-640s.
- No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: May KC wheat is correcting from being oversold as it consolidates after making a 556 ¾ low on Feb. 16, with nearby resistance just overhead between 590 and 600. So far, this support level is holding, and if prices break out to the upside, further resistance may come in around 610. If they break out to the downside, then the next major support area may be found around 530.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Since last summer, front month Minneapolis wheat has slowly stair-stepped lower with weaker world prices and little bullish news to move markets higher. During this time, the 50-day moving average has acted as resistance, above which the market has not been able to hold for very long. Managed funds have also established and maintained a record (or near record) short position for much of the same time. Although bullish headwinds remain, the market has become very oversold, and the large fund net short position continues to leave the market susceptible to a short-covering rally at any time here. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for a modest retracement of the July high and consider additional sales in the neighborhood of 675 – 700.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Much like the front month contracts, Sep ’24 has been in a downward trend since last summer. And just as Sep ’24 has been influenced to the downside by the front months, it could be similarly influenced to the upside by the front months if a bullish impetus enters the scene and triggers an extended short covering rally due to the fund’s large short position. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside (due to their higher liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis), and as the market got further extended into oversold territory, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Recently, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting the remaining 660 puts to protect the gains that have been made. From here, Grain Market Insider is prepared to consider recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop if Sep ‘24 posts a modest 22% retracement back toward the 2022 highs of 1400.
- No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted in the spring of next year. It may be late spring or summer before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: May Minneapolis wheat appears to be consolidating after posting a bullish reversal on February 26. If prices continue higher, they may run into resistance around 675 – 680. If prices turn back lower, the next major support level below 640 may come in near 600.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.