3-05 End of Day: Grain Markets Rebound Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Weaker U.S. Dollar
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’25 | 455.75 | 4.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 463.25 | 4 |
| DEC ’25 | 446.75 | 0 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’25 | 1011.75 | 12.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 1025 | 11.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1009.5 | 6 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 548.25 | 11.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 562 | 10.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 623 | 4.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 557 | 8.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 571.25 | 8 |
| JUL ’26 | 625.5 | 5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 588 | 8 |
| JUL ’25 | 601.75 | 7.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 614.25 | 7 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5913.25 | 70 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’25 | 65.94 | -1.76 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’25 | 2957.9 | 9.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: Futures closed mixed, with buying support lifting old crop contracts higher, while new crop contracts finished near unchanged.
- Soybeans: The entire soybean complex rebounded on Wednesday, erasing Tuesday’s losses in both soybeans and soybean meal, while soybean oil posted a modest gain.
- Wheat: Wheat futures recovered today as a sharply lower U.S. dollar and reports of a potential delay in tariffs on Mexico and Canada provided support.
- To see the updated 14-day ECMWF precipitation anomaly for South America as well as the 7-day U.S. precipitation outlooks, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Enter(Buy) DEC ’25 Puts:
420 @ ~ 21c
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Catch-Up Opportunities: If you missed some or all of the February sales recommendations, watch for a retracement to 480–490 — approximately a 50%-62% recovery from the drop between the February high of 518.75 and today’s low of 442.50.
2025 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY: Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 420 corn puts for approximately 21 cents, plus commission and fees.
- Downside Protection: Put options serve as a valuable hedging tool, protecting against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. Combined with the existing call options, this creates a Strangle strategy — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.
2026 Crop:
- Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market saw mixed trade on Wednesday as some buying strength returned to the old crop side of the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar, potential front-end demand strength, and some relaxation from tariff fears helped support the grain markets.
- The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since November, improving U.S. export competitiveness amid trade tariff concerns.
- Ethanol production hit a record high for this week of the year, averaging 1.093 million barrels per day — up 1.1% from last week and 3.4% year-over-year. Estimated corn usage for ethanol was 110.28 million bushels, staying ahead of USDA targets.
- Weekly export sales, set for release Thursday, will offer insight into demand trends. Recent sales have remained supportive, though high prices near 500 previously softened demand.
- The market will be very headline-focused regarding any changes to the current trade policy. The grain markets found some buying today as the “talk” was that President Trump would lighten his stance on Mexico and Canada tariffs.
Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Support for corn should hold near the 450 area. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.
Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to re-own previous sales recommendations.
2025 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher in a reversal from yesterday’s trade taking back all of the previous day’s losses. The move comes after President Trump said he would delay the Mexican and Canadian tariffs by another month. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, but soybean meal posted the larger gains.
- Volatility has ruled the markets over the past two weeks after President Trump said the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect yesterday. Earlier today, he walked this back, saying that he will grant a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers from new tariffs on these imports. Trump reportedly had a “friendly” conversation with Canada’s Trudeau.
- While concerns over Chinese retaliatory tariffs initially pressured the market, their impact on old crop sales is expected to be minimal. Optimism remains for a resolution before new crop sales are affected.
- China has reportedly increased their grain output target as a result of the potential looming trade war. The country aims to produce 700 million tons of grain in 2025, which compares to 650 million tons the previous year.
Soybeans Fall on Tariff Worries
Front-month soybean futures continued to test the 200-day moving average in early 2025, a key resistance level that has limited gains for over 18 months. Improved weather conditions in South America and newly announced tariffs from the Trump Administration at the start of March triggered a sharp decline in prices. Support is expected around 1000, with stronger backing near recent lows of 950. If prices rebound, initial resistance is likely at 1030, with the 200-day moving average serving as a more significant hurdle.
Above: From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat rebounded today, with the aid of a sharply lower U.S. dollar and easing of tariff related news. The U.S. commerce secretary issued comments that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be pushed back. In addition, it is being reported that Trump will give a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers for new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
- A major storm system is delivering a mix of rain and snow across the central U.S., providing beneficial moisture for winter wheat as it emerges from dormancy. Warmer March temperatures should further aid crop conditions.
- Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced plans to expand the 2025 crop area to 84 million hectares, 1 million more than last year, with 55.8 million hectares allocated to spring crops. Additionally, 87% of winter crops are rated good or satisfactory, up from 82% in January.
- The European Commission has reported that EU soft wheat exports as of March 2 have reached 13.9 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 37% decline from last year’s 22 mmt shipped in the same timeframe.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
2025 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
2025 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Breaks Lower
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Down Streak Ends: After ten consecutive down days, the May contract finally snapped the streak with an eight-cent recovery today.
- Guidance Unchanged: Despite today’s bounce, the May contract remains 72 cents below its February high. The guidance remains to sit tight and wait for a stronger recovery before taking next actions.
2025 Crop:
- Guidance Unchanged: No new targets or recommendations to report.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.
Above: From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)
Other Charts / Weather
