3-03 End of Day: Tariff Concerns Send Grains Lower Monday
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAY ’25 | 456.25 | -13.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 463.75 | -12 |
| DEC ’25 | 451.25 | -3.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAY ’25 | 1011.5 | -14.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 1025.75 | -14.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1018.75 | -10.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 547.75 | -8 |
| JUL ’25 | 561.25 | -8 |
| JUL ’26 | 621.25 | -4.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 562 | -11 |
| JUL ’25 | 576 | -10 |
| JUL ’26 | 627.25 | -6.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAY ’25 | 591.25 | -6.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 604 | -7 |
| SEP ’25 | 616.5 | -6.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| JUN ’25 | 5971.75 | -47.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAY ’25 | 67.78 | -1.56 |
| Gold | ||
| JUN ’25 | 2925.2 | 49.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn: Futures extended their decline on Monday as ongoing tariff concerns likely fueled continued fund liquidation.
- Soybeans: Soybeans extended their losing streak to four sessions, breaking below the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower, with soybean oil leading the decline.
- Wheat: Wheat fell to start the week alongside other commodities, weighed down by tariff concerns and lower Matif wheat futures.
- To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week two GFS precipitation forecast anomaly for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Steps up, Elevator down: The front-month contract climbed from 459.50 on January 2 to a high of 518.75 on February 19 — a steady 32-trading-day ascent. But in just 8 trading days, it tumbled back down to today’s close of 456.25. With such a sharp selloff from the high, the state of the broader uptrend from the August low is now in question.
- Resistance Concerns: At the start of February, Grain Market Insider flagged the heavy historical resistance clustered between 495–515 and made three sales recommendations on: February 4 at 494.50, February 18 at 512, and February 20 at 512.75.
- Hold: Given the severity of the recent selloff and the three prior sales recommendations, the guidance remains to hold off on making any additional old crop sales.
2025 Crop:
- Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and the recent call option recommendation, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.
- Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.
- Potential Put Options: Tomorrow or Wednesday, Grain Market Insider may recommend adding December ’25 put options. These options can be a valuable hedging tool, helping to protect against further downside price erosion on bushels that cannot be forward sold before harvest. If put options are recommended, they will combine with the existing call options to form a strategy known as a Strangle — a common approach when a significant price move is expected, but the direction remains uncertain.
2026 Crop:
- Active Window: The first 2026 upside targets could post at any time — stay tuned for updates!
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market saw a fourth day of selling pressure as concerns regarding tariffs and fund liquidation pressured the corn market. The weakness today erased all gains in the corn market for 2025 as the May contract closed at its lowest point since December 26.
- Managed funds have been aggressively selling their net long positions. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed a reduction of 16,000 net long contracts as of February 25, and estimates suggest an additional 60,000-70,000 contracts have been liquidated since then. The selloff extends beyond grains, affecting the broader agricultural commodity market as funds react to trade uncertainties.
- The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports remain scheduled to take effect on March 4. Negotiations between the three countries continue, with the possibility of a resolution. Mexico, the largest buyer of U.S. corn, could retaliate with tariffs or reduce purchases, adding uncertainty to the market.
- USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 114,000MT (4.5 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This was the first published corn sale since February 14.
- USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday afternoon. For the week ending February 27, US exporters shipped 1.351 MMT (52.6 mb) of corn. This total was near the top end of market expectations. Mexico was the top importer of U.S. corn during the week. Total shipments have a total of 1.073 bb, up 32% from last year and ahead of the pace to reach the USDA marketing year targets.
Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market had been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Late in February, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. Trendline support should come in near 470, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 16,079 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 337,454 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Range Breakout: Since January 13, the front-month continuous contract has traded sideways, mostly between 1066 and 1024. But today’s selloff pushed the May contract well below that 1024 lower boundary, closing at its lowest level since January 9.
- No New Recommendations: Two sales recommendations were issued back in January at 1047.50 and 1056.00. With those already in place — and the market down in six of the last seven trading days — today’s recommendation is to continue to hold off on making any additional sales.
- Call Strategy Target: February’s close reinforces 1079.75 as a key resistance level. If the May contract stages a strong reversal and closes above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider would recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations.
2025 Crop:
- No New Recommendations: Grain Market Insider issued its first 2025 crop sales recommendation on January 29 at 1063.50. For now, there are no new recommendations — current guidance is to hold steady.
- Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on previous sales recommendation.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: No initial recommendations or targets have been posted yet. The strategy may remain quiet for a while longer.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day in risk-off trade today that saw May futures break significantly below the 100-day moving average. Pressure has come from uncertainty over looming Chinese tariffs and potential retaliation on U.S. agricultural goods. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil posted the larger losses.
- President Trump was expected to place 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico tomorrow, but he just posted that the tariffs would go into effect on April 2 amid likely ongoing negotiations with the two countries. China, however, is not expected to negotiate and there have been talks that China would place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods if Trump doubled the Chinese tariffs to 20%.
- The USDA released the January soybean crush numbers today, which came out to 211.1 million bushels. This was right in line with the average trade estimates but has slowed from December by 3% when crush came in at 217.7 mb.
- Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 25.5 million bushels for the week ending February 27. This was within trade expectations but was below last week’s inspections. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.381 bb, up 10% from the previous year.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts. They were sellers of both soybean meal and oil by 10,420 and 6,200 contracts respectively.
Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,317 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net long 8,209 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Despite a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, wheat futures continued to struggle, closing lower alongside most agricultural commodities. A lack of supportive news and a lower close for Matif wheat added pressure. The primary market concern remains the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect tomorrow. Additionally, proposed tariff increases on China have raised fears of retaliatory measures, including reduced U.S. agricultural imports.
- Weekly wheat inspections of 14.3 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 574 mb, which is up 20% from last year. This is in line with the USDA’s estimated pace; wheat exports for 24/25 are estimated at 850 mb, also up 20% from the year prior.
- According to India’s meteorological department, much of their nation is expected to see heat waves through May 31. Additionally, it was reported that the month of February was their second warmest since 1901. The threat of above normal temperatures could ultimately reduce their wheat yields.
- Friday afternoon’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds increased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 10% to 67.6K contracts as of February 25. With the continued downtrend in the market, it is likely that the short position has grown further over the past few sessions.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month continuous contract has slipped back into negative territory for the year, closing below the December 31 close of 551.50. Over the last nine trading days, there’s been just one up day.”
- Hold: Grain Market Insider made one old crop sales recommendation in February, selling at 606.50 on February 19. Given the severity of the recent selloff, the guidance is to pause any additional sales for now.
2025 Crop:
- No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Head Fake
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range that marked the end of 2024. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 540, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rebound.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,037 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 67,614 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Six Straight Down Days: The front-month contract has closed lower for six consecutive trading days, with just one up day in the last nine. The December 31 close was 559.25, and today’s low saw the May contract trade down to 558.50.
- No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.
- Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.
2025 Crop:
- No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Breaks Lower Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. However, since the late February peak, wheat futures have retreated sharply, falling back into the previous trading range. Support is expected near the lower boundary of this range around 560, while the 200-day moving average is likely to act as resistance on any attempted rally.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 755 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 21,335 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- 2025 Rally Is Gone: The front-month contract has closed lower for nine straight trading days, slipping into negative territory for the year as May closed below the December 31 mark of 595.75.
- No Actionable Recommendations: For now, continue to hold steady — Grain Market Insider has no new actionable recommendations today.
- Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.
2025 Crop:
- No current targets: The severity of the recent pullback has clouded the trend, making the next move uncertain. Grain Market Insider will hold off on setting new targets until there’s a clearer indication of potential direction. Stay tuned for further updates.
- Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.
2026 Crop:
- No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
February Whipsaw
Spring wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforced the breakout, but late February weakness erased those gains, sending futures back below key moving averages. Moving forward, the 200-day MA is likely to serve as upside resistance, while previous lows near 580 should provide support.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 25. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,634 contracts between February 18 – February 25, bringing their total position to a net short 5,209 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
