Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning after two consecutive days of gains to begin the week. Tomorrow is first notice day, and funds likely have a large portion of their net short position in March that they will need to roll out of.
Estimates for today’s EIA report see ethanol production lower than the previous week at 1.072m barrels per day. If true, this would be the first time that production has fallen in five weeks. Stockpiles are predicted to increase slightly to 25.641m bbl.
China has reportedly purchased a sizeable amount of corn from Ukraine. While the exact amount is unknown, Traders are estimating that the sale totaled around 240,000 metric tons with price estimates between $227 and $230 a ton.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning but unlike corn, have not moved sharply off their lows from Monday. Yesterday looked promising before prices faded, and prices are now just 8 cents off their contract lows.
First notice day for March grains is this Thursday, so there is an expectation to see spreading out of the March contracts and into the May, but so far that has not been evident. Spreading action may be holding off until tomorrow.
This February has been uncharacteristically warm which has not helped the situation on the Mississippi River where water levels are again too low. Levels on the River typically rise this time of year, and this could impact shipping.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with the majority of losses in the KC wheat contract. KC wheat prices benefitted from freeze concerns earlier in the week, but temperatures are expected to warm back up next week.
In the UE, soft wheat exports fell by 3% year over year in February to 20.5 mmt. This comes as Russia and Ukraine continue to compete with each other’s low prices and in turn are taking the bulk of global export business.
The International Grains Council has given an early projection to global wheat production at 799 mmt which was up 1% from its 23/24 estimate due to an expected increase in Russia’s crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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