Corn, along with the rest of the grain complex, is rebounding this morning after yesterday’s bullish reversals off the lows. This bounce may be mostly technical in nature, as the market corrects from oversold conditions and funds cover short positions.
Talk that China purchased a significant amount of Ukrainian feed corn may be what stimulated yesterday’s rally. Though it was not a purchase from the US, it indicates that they are stepping up to buy, and the US could capture some of that business.
Yesterday’s corn export inspections data of 48.9 mb was certainly helpful in the rally. Inspections are 36% above last year at 768 mb.
South American weather looks mostly favorable. Some dryness in the west-central part of Brazil should aid in their soybean harvest but could become a concern if it persists into March. Brazilian soybeans are estimated to be about 40% harvested.
Private exporters reported sales of 123,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
There is talk that China purchased between five and seven cargoes of soybeans from Brazil. It is also believed that they may be looking to make more purchases, offering hope that some of the business may be captured by the US. That may be a bit of a long shot though, as US soybeans remain uncompetitive with South America.
Much of the continental United States has seen above-normal to record warm temperatures this month. However, there is expected to be a big drop in temperature over the next 24 hours or so, which could bring frost damage concerns for the wheat crop.
Russian wheat prices are said to be the lowest since 2020, and Ukrainian wheat is said to be even cheaper than Russian wheat. This may limit the upside potential for US wheat futures.
Yesterday afternoon, select states reported winter wheat conditions. Top producer, Kansas, rated the crop at 57% good to excellent (with 13% poor to very poor). In general, most states saw improvements, but there were slight declines in Colorado and Nebraska.
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