March corn futures broke four-dollar support and are trading below that level this morning. Front month corn futures have not traded below four dollars since late 2020.
According to the CFTC, funds are now net short a record 340,732 contracts of corn as of February, 20.
Some scattered showers fell over South America this weekend – later this week, heavier amounts are expected Argentina and southern Brazil. According to Ag Rural, 80% of the safrinha corn crop is now planted in Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report indicated higher placements and on feed numbers which may indicate stronger domestic feed demand.
According to Ag Rural, Brazilian soybean harvest is now about 40% complete. Additionally, they lowered their Brazilian bean production estimate from 150.1 to 147.7 mmt.
There is concern that China may import fewer soybeans than what the USDA is forecasting. With the US uncompetitive with Brazil, this may mean that the lack of Chinese demand will be a larger factor for the US.
Globally, there are not major weather problems, and in the US, there is not a lot of concern as we go into March. The Midwest is perhaps a bit too dry in parts, which could increase the chance for a drier summer. However, the market likely won’t trade this until the April / May timeframe.
Matif wheat futures are trading lower for the second consecutive day, offering weakness to the US market.
Russian wheat export values are said to have fallen again to around $210 to $213 per mt FOB. This apparent freefall will make it quite difficult for wheat to rally.
South Korea did buy 172,300 mt of wheat, which was sourced from the US, Canada, and Australia. The fall in US wheat prices may encourage more world importers to step up and make purchases.
Although not a record like corn, funds are still said to be net short a hefty 110,000 contracts of combined Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
