All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25	479.75	-2.75
JUL ’25	499.25	-2.75
DEC ’25	470	-0.75

Soybeans
MAR ’25	1031.25	2.25
JUL ’25	1063.5	0.25
NOV ’25	1051	-0.75

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25	572.75	-6.25
JUL ’25	602.25	-5.75
JUL ’26	655.75	-4

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25	591.75	-4.75
JUL ’25	618.5	-3.5
JUL ’26	660.25	-3.75

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25	613	-8.5
JUL ’25	642.25	-7
SEP ’25	653.5	-6.25

S&P 500
MAR ’25	5975.75	-25

Crude Oil
APR ’25	69	-1.7

Gold
APR ’25	2923.9	-39.3

Grain Market Highlights

Corn: Futures closed slightly lower today, pressured by improved South American weather forecasts and seasonal market weakness.
Soybeans: Soybeans closed mixed on Tuesday, with front-month contracts higher and deferred months lower. Ongoing harvest pressure from Brazil and improving crop conditions in Argentina continued to weigh on the market.
Wheat: A lack of fresh supportive news and ongoing tariff concerns pressured wheat futures on Tuesday, while forecasts for beneficial moisture in the Plains added to the weakness.
To see the updated South America 10-day precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Enter(Buy) DEC ’25 Calls:

510 @ ~ 26c & 550 @ ~ 17c

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Last week Grain Market Insider made two sales recommendations for your 2024 corn crop.
Hold Recommendation: Following last week’s two sales recommendations, the advice is to pause making any additional sales for now. The May contract is undergoing a correction, having closed lower in four of the last five sessions.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying December ‘25 510 corn calls and December ‘25 550 corn calls in equal quantities, with a total net spend of approximately 43 cents plus commission and fees.
Scenario Planning: With the existing sales recommendations and this call option strategy, Grain Market Insider aims to be positioned for any market direction. Given the many unpredictable wild cards that will influence the market in the months ahead — especially weather — it is critical to be prepared for both $7–$8 corn on the upside and $3–$4 corn on the downside.
Balanced Approach: Last week’s sales recommendations provide a stronger buffer against downside price scenarios, while the active call options strategy reopens upside opportunities on those prior sales recommendations. This balanced approach ensures flexibility in an unpredictable market.
Looking ahead: Next week, Grain Market Insider will evaluate a potential put option recommendation — details to come.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No sales targets are expected to post for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another week.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures finished lower for the third consecutive day as prices finished with marginal losses. Improved weather forecasts in Argentina and seasonal weakness pressured the corn market during the session.
The last week of February is historically a period of weakness in the corn market. This week is typically a pricing period for March basis contracts as producers need to decide to price bushels or roll contracts to future months. In addition, first notice day for March futures is on Feb 28, which can trigger additional volatility.
South American weather continues to pressure corn prices. Forecasts for Argentina remain favorable, helping to stabilize the corn crop after hot and dry conditions. Models indicate the potential for widespread rainfall in key growing regions.
Brazil’s top corn producing state of Mato Grasso, analyst have stated that improved weather has allowed planting of the second crop corn to advance to nearly 70% complete. This has corn planting back on schedule versus the 5-year average after early season delays.

Corn Rally Pauses
The corn market has been performing well in 2025, with steady demand keeping buyers engaged and driving prices to 16-month highs. Last week, technical indicators reached overbought levels, and without new positive developments, prices began to pull back. If this correction continues, support is expected around 475, with stronger support near 450. On the other hand, if buyers step back in, the next target would be 535, with more significant resistance at the spring 2023 lows near 550.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.
Potential Call Strategy: If May soybeans close above 1079.75, Grain Market Insider may recommend a call option strategy to reown previous sales recommendations…stay tuned.

2025 Crop:

Sales Target Range: 1090 – 1125 remain the upside target range vs November ‘25.
Call Option Target: The target to exit all the 1100 Nov ‘25 call options is approximately 88 cents in premium. If the 1100 calls can be exited for that price, it should cover the cost of the 1180 Nov ‘25 calls, providing a net-neutral cost position that can continue to protect the upside on the recent sales recommendation.

2026 Crop:

No Change: Still no sales recommendations expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the three front months closing higher, while the deferred months were lower. Futures came back significantly from this morning’s lows, which saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Prices then bounced off the 100-day moving average, which has been support. Soybean meal was higher, while soybean oil was lower.
In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 39% complete as of February 20. This compares to 23% completion a week ago and 40% at the same time last year. The soy output is now estimated at 168.2 mmt compared to 171 mmt last month.
In Argentina, soybeans on the national level are reportedly seeing better than expected crop ratings after a period of drought that lowered crop conditions. There have been three weeks of rain following the drought that have slowed down yield losses in the country’s core growing zone.
While the 100-day moving average has provided support over the past two months, soybean prices have been under pressure due to declining export demand. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper than U.S. offers, and renewed tariff concerns following statements from President Trump have added uncertainty to the market.

Soybeans Continue Sideways Grind
Front-month soybean futures continue to flirt with the 200-day moving average, a formidable resistance that has capped gains for over 18 months. A decisive move past this level could trigger bullish momentum, paving the way for a rise toward the key 1100 mark. Should prices dip, reliable support is expected near 1030, with a more stable floor around 1000.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed lower across the board. The grain complex was under pressure today on talk that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will move forward next week. Furthermore, a lack of fresh friendly news and anticipation for rains in the U.S. plains brought weakness into the wheat market.
Egypt’s supply minister reported that the country has enough soybean oil and wheat to cover five months of usage. Domestic wheat consumption stands at 750,000 metric tons per month, with total grain storage capacity at 5 million metric tons.
SovEcon has decreased their estimate of Russian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.6 mmt to 42.2 mmt. For reference the USDA’s estimate is still sitting at 45.5 mmt.
As of February 23, winter wheat ratings in Texas increased by 4% vs last week to 37% good to excellent. However, conditions in Oklahoma declined by 6% from the prior rating to 34% good to excellent. Of note, the last released crop condition data for Oklahoma was on February 2.
According to the Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, European Union winter crops are in mostly fair to good condition. However, January weather in northwest France was unfavorable, which could affect their wheat crop. Additionally, surrounding regions including Ukraine and northern Africa may have seen greater yield losses.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Recent Sale: Last Wednesday Grain Market Insider issued the first sales recommendation for your 2024 SRW wheat crop since May of last year.
Hold: The May contract has closed lower in four of the last five sessions and is down about 35 cents from its recent high. Current guidance is to hold off on additional old crop sales for now.
Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

Next Target: If the July contract can maintain its uptrend, the next sales target range would be 690-715 vs. July ‘25.
Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

No Change: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Surges Past Resistance
Chicago wheat broke out of its prolonged sideways trend with a strong February rally, reaching key resistance at the early October highs just above 615. A decisive weekly close above the 200-day moving average now positions it as a potential support level on any near-term pullbacks. The next upside targets are near 650, with stronger resistance in the 680-700 range.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Hold: Given the recent sale recommendation, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.
Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

Hold: Given the recent sales recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.
Maintain Put Options: Continue holding the final quarter of July ’25 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

Hold: No first sales targets or recommendations are expected until the late May, early June window.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Signals Breakout Potential
Kansas City wheat futures surged into February with strong bullish momentum, closing above the 200-day moving average and testing multi-month highs near 620. A breakout above the October peak of 623 could fuel a rally toward the key 700 level. On the downside, the 200-day moving average provides initial support, with stronger backing around 575.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.
Maintain Call Options: Continue to hold onto the July ‘25 KC 860 and 1020 call options.

2025 Crop:

Hold: Given recent recommendations, the current guidance is to continue to sit tight for now on any additional sales.
Maintain Put Options: Continue to hold the last quarter of July ‘25 KC 620 put options.

2026 Crop:

No Change: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Confirms Breakout
Spring wheat broke free from its prolonged sideways range in late January, signaling bullish momentum. A mid-February close above the 200-day moving average reinforces the breakout, with initial support at the 200-day MA and stronger backing near 615 — the top of the previous range. On the upside, 650 is the next key resistance before bulls target the elusive 700 level.

Other Charts / Weather

Courtesy of ag-wx.com