All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25	491.5	4
JUL ’25	507.5	3
DEC ’25	471.25	5.25

Soybeans
MAR ’25	1049.5	0
JUL ’25	1080.5	-0.5
NOV ’25	1057.5	0

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25	579.5	-3.25
JUL ’25	604.5	-1.75
JUL ’26	652.75	0

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25	596.75	-7.5
JUL ’25	616.5	-6.5
JUL ’26	654.25	-4

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25	625.25	-2.5
JUL ’25	647.75	-1
SEP ’25	658	-1.5

S&P 500
MAR ’25	6089.25	39.75

Crude Oil
APR ’25	72.14	1.4

Gold
APR ’25	2934.3	46.7

Grain Market Highlights

Corn: A daily flash sale to Mexico gave corn a positive start to the week, with traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report.
Soybeans: Futures closed near unchanged Monday as the market awaits fresh insights from the upcoming WASDE report.
Wheat: Despite strong weekly export inspections and gains in Paris wheat futures, all three U.S. wheat contracts ended the session lower, led by losses in Kansas City wheat.
To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the week 2 South America precipitation forecast scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell MAR ’25 Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
Sales Target Range: With the March ‘25 contract facing continued resistance at the lower end of the 495 – 515 target range, Grain Market Insider recommended making a sale on Tuesday. The upper end of the target range at 515 remains a key level to watch. If March ‘25 corn can close over the recent high of 498.50, Grain Market Insider will consider the 515 area as another potential sales target.
Resistance Levels: Key resistance on the front-month continuous chart remains between the recent high of 498.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.

2025 Crop:

Be Ready: Stay alert for a sales recommendation in the 473–479 range vs December ‘25.
Downside Support: Key support for the December ‘25 contract remains at 453.75 — an important level to watch in the current uptrend.
Upside Resistance: Major resistance stands at 479 for December ‘25. A strong close above this level could open the door to broader upside potential as we head into the spring planting window.
Buying Call Options: If prices break through 479, stay tuned for a potential recommendation to purchase call options. This strategy would provide a hedge against existing sales and get you repositioned to the topside in the event of an extended rally.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 1–3 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures started the week on a positive note, clawing back some of Friday’s losses as strong demand and tightening supply prospects kept the market supported.
USDA announced a flash export sale of corn om Manday morning. Mexico stepped into the export market and purchased 365,000 MT (14.4 MB) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.
Weekly export inspections remain solid in a seasonally strong window. For the week ending February 6, the USDA reported 1.334 MMT (52.5 MB) inspected, landing at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year now sit at 909 MB — up 34% from last year and ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA export projections.
On Tuesday, the USDA will release the next WASDE report. Expectations are for a slight reduction in corn carryout, reflecting the good pace of demand. The grain markets may be more interested to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to South American production.

Corn Rally Holding Strong as Buyers Stay Engaged
The corn market’s uptrend has been firing on all cylinders since harvest, fueled by eager fund buying and solid demand. Support is firmly in place at 475, with an extra layer of reinforcement near the breakout zone around 450. On the upside, prices are knocking on the door of 500, a key resistance level that could determine the next leg of this rally. For now, the bulls remain in control, but the market is watching closely to see if momentum can push corn through the next hurdle.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,496 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net long 364,217 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Enter(Buy) NOV ’25 Calls:

1100 @ ~ 55c & 1180 @ ~ 32c

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Recent Sales Recommendations: Grain Market Insider recommended selling portions of your 2024 soybean crop on January 14 at 1047.50 and again on January 22 at 1056.00, both against the March ‘25 contract. The average of these two sales is 1051.75, which is 2-½ cents above today’s March ‘25 closing price. If you missed either of the January sales recommendations, now is still a good time to catch up, as the March ‘25 contract remains within that price range. Additionally, with a USDA WASDE report set for release tomorrow, securing a sale ahead of time could be wise—especially if the USDA reports numbers that put pressure on the soybean market.
Off Highs: The March ‘25 contract finished last week up nearly 8 cents, but 30 cents off the high of 1079.75.
Resistance: The March ‘25 contract was again unable to secure a weekly close above the start of the resistance band at 1060 last week. The last time the front-month contract closed above this level on a weekly continuous chart was the week of September 23 last year.

2025 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ‘25 1100 soybean calls and November ‘25 1180 soybean calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 88 cents plus commission and fees. Buying these call options will reopen the topside on the sales recommendation made two weeks ago. Also, buying two strikes provides the option to leg out of the lower strike once it covers the cost of the upper strike.
Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of your 2025 soybean crop on January 29 at 1063.50 vs November ‘25.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months unchanged and the deferred contracts slightly lower. Prices rebounded from overnight lows that followed President Trump’s announcement regarding new tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. Both soybean meal and oil finished the day slightly lower.
Estimates for Tomorrow’s WASDE report suggest U.S. soybean ending stocks will decrease by 3 mb to 378 mb, while a potential increase in export demand is also expected. Global ending stocks are projected to remain unchanged or slightly lower. Big changes are not expected after last month’s bombshell yield adjustment.
In Brazil, weather has begun to dry up as producers continue with harvest. 16.78% of the planted area has now been harvested, and this compares to 23.83% last year at this time. The largest delays are in the country’s biggest producing state of Mato Grosso.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of just 533 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 57,029 contracts as of February 4. Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have kept that position mostly unchanged.

Soybeans Attempting to Breakout
Front-month soybean futures have repeatedly tested but failed to clear resistance at the 200-day moving average in recent weeks — a stubborn ceiling that has limited upside momentum for over 18 months. A decisive close above this level would be a strong signal for potential further upside. Support is expected to be near 1000 on a pullback. Initial resistance lies near the 1100 level, with larger resistance near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 533 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a netlong 57,029 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed lower led by Kansas City futures; this was despite the gains in Matif wheat and good export inspections. The US contracts were likely under pressure from expectations for better US and Black Sea snow cover this week, in addition to futures having become technically overbought. Also, tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat and did not stir up any buying interest today.
Weekly wheat inspections at 19.7 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections figure to 535 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and 24/25 exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.
While frigid temperatures are expected across the U.S. Southern Plains this week, incoming snow should help insulate the winter wheat crop and prevent significant damage, potentially contributing to today’s market weakness. Similar conditions are expected in the Black Sea region.
On a bullish note, IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values finished last week $2 higher at $245 per mt. They also decreased their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 43 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 46 mmt figure. Meanwhile, APK-Inform increased their forecast of Ukrainian 24/25 wheat exports by 0.1 mmt to 14.5 mmt.
According to consultancy ProZerno, the Russian 2025 grain harvest is estimated at 122.9 mmt, which would be down 1.7% from 2024. Wheat specifically is expected to fall 6% to 77.4 mmt. Additionally, they are expecting about 8.2% of the winter wheat crop to be lost, with a harvest on 16.1 million hectares.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Sales Target Range: The target range remains 680-705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.
Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in SRW supports 680–705 as a realistic and achievable target. In the last three instances where the Funds held a similar net short position and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 140 cents, 90 cents, and 170 cents.
Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

No Change: The next target range for a sale remains 690–715 vs. July ’25.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current strategy is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

Sales Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop remains 700–720 vs July ‘26.
Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop on January 13th.
Carry & Increased Volume: With growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to July ’25, the July ’26 contract is shaping up as an early opportunity to watch closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Stuck in Neutral – For Now
Chicago wheat continues to tread familiar ground, locked in a tight range between 530 and 577. The market is searching for a spark, and a breakout above the 577–586 resistance zone could open the door for a push toward 617. On the flip side, if support at 536 cracks, sellers may take control, driving prices down toward the 521–514 support zone. For now, wheat remains in wait-and-see mode, poised for its next big move.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 20,340 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 90,442 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell MAR ’25 Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
Weekly Gain: The March ’25 contract closed the week 25 cents higher, making it a solid opportunity for a sale. If the market continues its upward momentum, the next target range is 650–700.
Short Covering Potential: The massive net short position of the Funds in HRW reinforces 650–700 as a realistic and achievable target. Historically, when the Funds held a net short position exceeding 40,000 contracts and were forced to cover, the front-month contract rallied approximately 100 cents, 100 cents, 160 cents, and 70 cents in the last four instances.
Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June, providing ample time for potential upside.

2025 Crop:

NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat crop today.
WASDE tomorrow: The July ’25 contract has risen nearly 67 cents from its December low, closing at 616.50 today. With tomorrow’s USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates report adding uncertainty to the market, this current rally presents a good opportunity to sell another portion of your 2025 KC wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation for 2025 KC wheat since October 2 of last year.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The current plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Shows Signs of Life
KC wheat has traded between 536 and 583 since November, with the early February rally above the 200-day moving average a test of the October highs near 620 looks likely, support should appear at the top end of the recent range near 580.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,405 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 35,981 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell MAR ’25 Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop today.
Rally: The front-month contract has climbed nearly 50 cents from its January low, closing today at 625.25 vs March ‘25. Over the last four trading sessions, the March ‘25 contract has struggled to break through the 630 level, and with upside momentum stalling and the uncertainty of tomorrow’s WASDE report, this year-to-date rally presents a good opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. This is the first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider has made for the 2024 Minneapolis wheat crop since June 7 of last year.
Open Call Options: If you’re holding the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, stay the course. While actionable targets remain distant, these options still have about four months until expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

No Change: The target range remains 700–750 vs. September ’25.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the originally recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations for the other three-quarters were issued in July and December. The plan is to hold the remaining position for now.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Breakout: Rally or False Start?
After months of treading water, spring wheat finally found its spark in late January, surging beyond its previous range and signaling a potential breakout. The next big test lies at the 200-day moving average near 625, a level that could either fuel further momentum or stand as a stubborn ceiling. However, any near-term weakness or a close back below 613 could snuff out the rally, pulling prices back into their familiar rangebound pattern.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, February 4. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,158 contracts between January 28 – February 4, bringing their total position to a net short 15,084 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America week two forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.