12-5 End of Day: Grains Higher Across the Board Thursday
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAR ’25 | 435 | 5 |
| JUL ’25 | 443 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 434 | 5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JAN ’25 | 993.75 | 10 |
| MAR ’25 | 999 | 9.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1007 | 6.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 558.25 | 10 |
| MAY ’25 | 566.75 | 9.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 572.5 | 9.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 552.5 | 10 |
| MAY ’25 | 560.25 | 10.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 567.5 | 9.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 598.5 | 9 |
| JUL ’25 | 614 | 8.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 623.5 | 8.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| MAR ’25 | 6162 | -5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| FEB ’25 | 68.01 | -0.18 |
| Gold | ||
| FEB ’25 | 2652.2 | -24 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Buying strength, bolstered by wheat market momentum and robust export sales, pushed March corn to its highest close in seven sessions.
- Soybeans were able to reverse yesterday’s losses, adding double digit gains in January futures today. Strong export sales and strength across the grain complex helped aid in the rally.
- Wheat posted double-digit gains in Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis close behind, supported by a weaker dollar and spillover strength from corn and soybeans.
- To see the updated US Drought Monitor as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- If you missed our previous sales recommendations, consider targeting the 460 area in March ‘25 for any catch-up sales. Additionally, selling additional bushels into market strength may be beneficial if you have capital needs.
- We are now in the window when seasonal opportunities tend to improve and we anticipate posting target ranges for new sales soon, but they could be as late as early spring.
2025 Crop:
- If you missed previous sales recommendations for next year’s crop, consider targeting 455 – 475 versus Dec’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
- As we enter the time of year when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we will begin posting target ranges for additional sales, though this may not happen until late winter or early spring.
- Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Buying strength stepped into the corn market supported by strength in the wheat market, and strong export sales on Thursday morning. March corn closed at its highest level in the past seven sessions.
- March corn futures posted a bullish reversal today, trading above and below Wednesday’s range before closing near the session’s high. This may trigger additional technical buying overnight.
- The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Sales remained strong as new sales totaled 68.2 mb, which was above trade expectations. Mexico continues to be the largest buyer of U.S. corn. Total corn sales are up 33% YOY as the overall sales pace remains strong.
- Tuesday’s December WASDE report may reveal stronger corn demand for exports and ethanol, likely reducing carryout for the sixth consecutive month.
The corn market has, so far, held support near the 425 area and the 200-day moving average (ma), and could potentially retest the 442 area with the possibility of trading towards 465. If prices break through and close below the 50-day moving average (ma), near 422, they run the risk falling further and testing more major support near the 410 area and 100-day ma.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- If you missed prior sales recommendations, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 area versus Jan’25 could provide a good opportunity to make catch-up sales. For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.
- Additional sales could also be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan’25 if prices rally beyond the 1070 area.
- This is the period when seasonal opportunities typically improve, and we plan to post target ranges for new sales soon, though it could be as late as early spring.
2025 Crop:
- We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
- Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans recovered all of yesterday’s losses, closing near the high end of their range. Export sales were strong, and the dollar dipped lower today, both things being supportive of soybeans. Soybean meal finished the day just slightly lower while soybean oil traded higher and led soybeans.
- USDA reported soybean sales at the high end of expectations — 85.0 mb for 24/25 and 200 metric tons for 25/26. Last week’s shipments of 89.2 mb far exceeded the 28.5 mb needed weekly to meet USDA projections, with top buyers including China, unknown destinations, and Spain.
- The incoming administration’s potential policies on biofuel use in the US may be preventing soybean oil from rallying to the same degree as palm oil. It is unlikely that this will have any long-term effect on demand, as global biofuel use has trended significantly higher over recent years.
- Significant rains continue to benefit Brazil’s soybean crop, though excessive moisture could pose risks later. Production estimates remain on the rise.
The soybean market continues to trend sideways just above 975 support. Should the market close below there, it could be at risk of sliding toward the 940 support area near the August low. Conversely, if prices gain traction and rally, they could resistance near the 50-day moving average and 1013 before retesting 1045.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat had a good day, with double digit gains in both Chicago and Kansas City, with Minneapolis not far behind. Wheat was aided by a sharply lower US Dollar Index and spillover support from corn and soybean futures.
- USDA reported 13.9 mb of wheat sales for 24/25 last week. While weekly shipments of 11.8 mb were behind the 16.5 mb needed to meet the 825 mb goal, commitments are up 19% year-over-year at 571 mb.
- Drought currently affects 29% of U.S. winter wheat acres, up 1% from last week but sharply improved from 62% in late October. Favorable conditions may cap price gains.
- Statistics Canada raised its wheat production estimate to 34.96 mmt, slightly above the 34.3 mmt trade guess and aligning with USDA’s 35 mmt forecast. Spring wheat accounts for 26 mmt of the total.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Target the 740 – 760 range versus March ‘25 to make additional sales. While this range may seem far away, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research as we approach winter dormancy.
- For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Continue holding open July ’25 620 puts to maintain coverage for unsold bushels. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling the first half to offset the cost of the now remaining puts.
- Target the 650 – 680 range versus July ’25 to make additional sales.
- Look to protect current sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 775 range if signs of an extended rally appear. This will give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Front-month Chicago wheat continues to hover just above support at the 540 level. If a bullish trigger emerges, pushing prices through the 50- and 200-day moving averages and closing above 586, it could be poised to retest the 617 area. Conversely, if it slides lower and closes below 536, it may retreat toward the 521–514 support zone.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
- If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
- Continue to hold the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Since failing to trade above the 50-day moving average (ma), March KC wheat has trended lower and is testing the bottom of the 536 – 577 range. A close below this level could put the market at risk of testing the August low of 527 ¼. Should a bullish catalyst emerge to push prices higher, they could encounter resistance near 567 before re-testing 577.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Target a rally back to the 710 – 735 range versus Sept. ’25 to make additional early sales on your 2025 crop. While this target area may seem far off, it aligns with the market’s potential based on our research. conditions improve seasonally. This could be as early as late November or December.
- Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
- Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Since late November, Minneapolis wheat has drifted lower, finding support just above the March contract low of 584 ½. If the market closes below this level, it could risk trading down to the 563 support area. Conversely, if a bullish trigger pushes prices higher and close above 613, they could be poised to test the October highs near 655.
Other Charts / Weather
