The corn market is trading near the upper end of the day’s range despite pressure from a stronger US dollar and threats of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they move away from using the US dollar as their reserve currency.
Favorable weather in South America continues to support crop development. With Brazil’s soybean crop nearly planted, the risk of a late-planted safrinha corn crop has been significantly reduced, increasing the likelihood of a large harvest.
Although US export demand has been strong, there is speculation that current sales are front-loaded. This could align total sales more closely with historical averages as the marketing year progresses, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Soybeans remain lower at midday, as it comes under pressure from lower meal and oil and prospects of large crops in South America.
The USDA reported private export sales of 134,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
Growing weather in South America remains mostly favorable for crop development. Estimates suggest Brazil’s soybean crop could reach 172–176 mmt, while Argentina’s crop is estimated at 52–55 mmt. This higher potential supply continues to pressure US soybean and meal prices.
The wheat complex has turned mostly higher at midday, with all three classes trading near the upper end of the day’s range after finding buying support near Friday’s lows.
Interfax reported that Russian customs officials approved a lower wheat export quota of 11 mmt for the second half of the country’s export season. This reduction is largely due to a 10% smaller wheat harvest, which could open the door for higher US exports.
Argentina is aiming to make its first wheat sales to China since the 1990s. With a bumper wheat crop and the possibility of US tariffs on China, Argentina’s export potential could increase at the expense of US market share.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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