Corn surrendered earlier gains and is now trading near the bottom of its 5 ½ cent range, pressured by sharply lower soybeans despite reports of another flash sale and solid ethanol production.
The USDA reported private exporters sold 135,000 mt of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
A federal budget bill under consideration includes a provision for nationwide, year-round sales of 15% ethanol blends, which could add 35–40 mb of corn usage to the US balance sheet.
Ethanol production for the week ending Dec. 13 averaged 1.103 million barrels/day, with estimated corn use at 111.28 million bushels, well above the 104.41 mb needed to meet USDA projections.
Soybeans remain sharply lower at midday, under pressure from both products. Soybean meal is currently down over $6/ton, while bean oil is about 100 points lower.
The USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia during the 24/25 marketing year.
The 40B tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expires this year, and without 45Z guidance, biodiesel and SAF production may decline, reducing soybean oil demand and pressuring bean oil and soybeans.
One factor in this sell-off, which has driven soybeans to new contract lows, is the devaluation of the Brazilian real against the rising US dollar. This has made Brazil significantly more competitive in global exports.
The wheat complex remains higher across the board, though off session highs, as it gains support from Russian production cuts and higher Paris milling wheat.
Ukrainian grain exports are up 22% year-over-year, including 9.2 mmt of wheat, a 37% increase from last season.
SovEcon reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop to 78.7 mmt, the lowest since 2021 and down 3 mmt. This reduction in Russian production could support higher wheat futures.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
