12-17 End of Day: Grain Complex Divided: Corn Firms on Demand, Soy Weakens, Wheat Struggles
Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: The corn market fought off selling pressure from wheat and soybeans to finish higher on Wednesday, supported in part by a 6.9 mb flash sale to Mexico announced this morning.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans appeared to find support at the 200-day moving average but still finished lower for the fourth straight session, extending the recent downtrend.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat finished mixed on the day after news broke this morning that China cancelled purchases of US white wheat.
- The USDA announced that farmers who qualify for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026
- Â To see updated US and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 470 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March 2026 futures close above 475 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 457.875.
- Changes:
- A Plan A call target has been added.
- Notes:
- Key resistance for the macro trend sits at 475 vs March 2026. A close above 475 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 487 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- The Plan B call target has been raised from 483 to 487.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 487 vs December 2026. A close above 487 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market fought of selling pressure in the wheat and soybean market to finish higher on the session. Strong underlying demand helped lift prices and snapped a three-session losing streak. March corn settled 4 cents higher at 440-1/2, while May gained 3-1/4 to close at 447-3/4.
- USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Mexico purchased 177,055 MT (6.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.
- US corn continues to hold the most competitive export values versus global competitors, and today’s flash sale marks USDA-reported business in four of the past five sessions.
- Weekly ethanol production ramped up last week to set a new all-time high for weekly production. For the week ending December 12, production rose to a weekly production of 332.5 million gallons. Corn usage for the week was 112 mb, trending ahead of the pace to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
- The EPA announced Wednesday afternoon that it expects to finalize biofuel policy rules in the first quarter of 2026. Biofuel markets are looking for clearer direction from the current administration.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1186 against January 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if March 2026 futures break below 1075.75.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 1067.50.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1186 from 1194.
- A Plan B sell-stop target has been added.
- Notes:
- Key support for March 2026 futures is at 1075.75 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1252 against November 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.
- Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation has been made so far to date.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1252 from 1257.
- Notes:
- Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day as selling pressure continued, but prices found support at the 200-day moving average which was $10.65 for March. January soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents to $10.58 while March beans were down 3 cents to $10.68-3/4. January soybean meal lost $4.20 to $298.20 and January soybean oil gained 0.16 cents to 48.52 cents.
- Export sales were solid today, with private exporters reporting 198,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 and another 125,000 mt sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26. Flash sales have been reported nearly every day for the past week, and the US Treasury Secretary now expects China to fulfill its 12 mmt purchase commitment by the end of February.
- Supportive to soybean oil today was news that the EPA is now expected to finalize its biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027. These were initially thought to be released in October, but now they are expected in the first quarter of next year.
- China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 323,000 metric tons, or 63% of the total offered, of imported soybeans at auction on Tuesday at roughly $547/mt. These sales help clear inventory and could make room for additional US soybean purchases.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The wheat market had a mixed close, with March Chicago slipping 3-1/4 cents to 506-1/4, Kansas City gaining 2-3/4 cents to 507-3/4, and MIAX closing 3 cents lower at 562. In the face of a firmer US Dollar Index, another lower close for MATIF wheat, and a generally negative tone, the market held up relatively well. With some contracts posting fresh lows today and technical conditions extremely oversold, wheat may be nearing a short-term bottom.
- China reportedly cancelled the purchase of 132,000 mt of US white wheat, which added to negativity in the marketplace. The reason behind the cancellation is unknown, but with ample global supply and stiff price competition, it is not necessarily surprising.
- According to the Ukrainian farmer’s union, UAC, their nation’s wheat exports have been curtailed by Russian attacks on ports in the Black Sea, as well as energy facilities. About 70% of their wheat exports go through these ports, but they have exported only about 359,000 mt of wheat this month compared with the 1 mmt contracted for export during December. UAC added that the port is functioning at only 20% capacity.
- LSEG commodities research increased its 25/26 Canadian wheat production estimate to 39.9 mmt, a 9.3% boost from its prior projection. The higher estimate aligns more closely with updated Stats Canada figures and reflects supportive satellite vegetation imagery.
- LSEG also released an update for US 26/27 wheat crop production but kept their estimate steady at 51.7 mmt. Additionally, the winter wheat planted area estimate was unchanged at 33.01 mmt with production for that class forecasted at 36.6 mmt. Furthermore, LSEG added that there is currently little risk for winterkill in US wheat growing regions.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.25 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes above 594 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 631.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 588 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 563 to make the next cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes over 590.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 596.75.
- Changes:
- The market has rallied back within the targeted price zone of the previous sale recommendation. If you were unable to make the previous sale, the sale opportunity has reactivated.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 against March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if March KC closes over 590.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December 2025. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Other Charts / Weather
