12-16 End of Day: Grain Markets Slide Amid Broad Fund Selling
Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures moved lower on Tuesday, weighed down by heavy selling in the wheat and soybean markets.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for a third straight session as fund selling persisted, with March futures filling the $10.76 gap and extending losses beyond that level.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat closed moderately lower, pressured by Paris milling wheat futures making new lows and spillover weakness from the corn and soybean markets.
- The USDA announced that farmers who qualify for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026
- To see updated U.S. and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 470 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March 2026 futures close above 475 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 457.875.
- Changes:
- A Plan A call target has been added.
- Notes:
- Key resistance for the macro trend sits at 475 vs March 2026. A close above 475 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 487 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- The Plan B call target has been raised from 483 to 487.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 487 vs December 2026. A close above 487 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures slid on Tuesday as heavy selling in wheat and soybeans spilled into the corn market. March corn fell 3½ cents to 436½, while May dropped 3¼ cents to 444½.
- The weakness in corn prices created some technical damage to the corn charts as March corn closed under the 100-day moving average for the first time since October 23. With the weak technical close, the corn market could be open to further selling pressure going into the end of the week.
- As the calendar turns toward 2026, South American weather will take on greater importance. Conditions in Brazil remain generally favorable for now, but longer-range forecasts hint at drier trends developing in Argentina. With January being a key window for weather risk, markets may look to add premium if conditions turn more challenging.
- Strong selling pressure in crude oil markets weighed on the broader commodity complex today. The lower crude oil prices impact corn as ethanol margins may tighten, limiting demand.
- Wheat futures broke to new contract lows on Tuesday, and low wheat prices could impact corn feed demand as wheat can be a substitute in some animal rations.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1194 against January 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if March 2026 futures break below 1075.75.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 1067.50.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1194 from 1200.
- A Plan B sell-stop target has been added.
- Notes:
- Key support for March 2026 futures is at 1075.75 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1257 against November 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.
- Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1161 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation has been made so far to date.
- Changes:
- The Plan A target has been lowered to 1257 from 1259.
- Notes:
- Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as funds continue to pressure the market. March futures finally closed their gap at $10.76 and continued lower. January soybeans lost 9 cents to $10.62-3/4 while March lost 9-1/2 cents to $10.71-3/4. January soybean meal lost $1.10 to $302.40 while January soybean oil lost 1.12 cents to 48.36 cents.
- Yesterday’s export inspections report was sluggish for soybeans at 796k tons, compared to 1,025k tons the previous week and 1,696k a year ago with inspections down 53.1% on the year. Top destinations were to China, Germany, and Vietnam.
- November NOPA U.S. soybean crush fell to 216.04 million bushels after hitting an all-time high in October of 227.6 million bushels. This was a drop of 5.1% from October, but crush was up 11.8% from the same month a year ago. With export demand only recently picking up, prices are relying on solid domestic demand to move higher.
- China’s state stockpiler Sinograin sold 323,000 metric tons, or 63%, of imported soybeans at auction on Tuesday at roughly $547/mt. The sales help clear inventory and could make room for additional U.S. soybean purchases.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat finished modestly to sharply lower in a risk-off session, with bear spreading evident in Chicago. March Chicago fell 11-1/4 cents to 509-1/2, Kansas City lost 7 to 505, and MIAX slipped 3-3/4 to 565. Pressure came from Paris milling wheat making new lows, weakness in corn and soybeans, and a softer stock market after U.S. unemployment ticked up to 4.6%. Added talk of progress toward a Russia-Ukraine peace deal further weighed on the wheat complex.
- Daily stochastics show all three U.S. wheat classes are now technically oversold. With managed funds estimated to be net short, the market is increasingly vulnerable to a bounce—but it will likely take a fresh piece of friendly news to spark a sustained rally.
- European Union soft wheat exports have reached 10.5 mmt as of December 14, which represents a decline of 3% year over year.
- Egypt’s supply minister said wheat imports for 2025 are running 17% below last year, largely because domestic procurement has surged to 4 MMT. Officials also noted that the country currently holds roughly six months’ worth of wheat stocks.
- The French farm ministry is estimating that their nation’s soft winter wheat planted area will reach 4.56 million hectares next year. This would be an increase of 2.3% versus 2025, though it would still be just under the five-year average. Their durum wheat area is also expected to increase from 197,000 to 199,000 hectares.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.25 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes above 594 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 631.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs December ‘25. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 592.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 563 to make the next cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March closes over 590.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 596.75.
- Changes:
- The market has rallied back within the targeted price zone of the previous sale recommendation. If you were unable to make the previous sale, the sale opportunity has reactivated.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 against March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if March KC closes over 590.50 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs December 2025. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Other Charts / Weather
Above: U.S. temperature outlook courtesy of ag-wx.com.
Above: South America 7-day temperature outlook courtesy of National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.