Corn is trading higher this morning, recovering some of its losses from yesterday’s reversal lower, with support from higher soybeans and wheat.
Yesterday, strong selling in crude oil and talk of higher US and Ukrainian supplies weighed on prices.
CONAB updated its estimate for Brazil’s corn crop and put it at 119 mmt, 10 mmt lower than the current USDA estimate. Currently, Brazilian farmers are reluctant to make additional sales until more is known about the current crop, while exportable supplies are also on the decline.
The USDA will release its weekly export sales update later this morning. Estimates range from 725 mt to 1,500 mt versus 1,927 mt last week.
The soybean complex is trading higher this morning. Soybeans are higher, helped by a strong recovery in soybean oil, with meal slightly higher.
Yesterday, the USDA announced another purchase of US soybeans by China, totaling 136,000 mt. China’s total soybean imports for October and November were up 13% from last year and are expected to be record high in December.
A private analyst released an estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop near 155 mmt, down nearly 8 mmt from CONAB’s current estimate of 162.8 mmt and the USDA’s estimate of 163 mmt.
Export sales estimates for today’s USDA update range from 1,000 mt to 1,800 mt. Last week, soybean sales came in at 1,895 mt.
Wheat futures are mostly higher across the board as Minneapolis and KC attempt to regain some of yesterday’s losses and Chicago builds on yesterday’s small gain.
The USDA announced another large private sale of SRW wheat to China totaling 327,000 mt yesterday. This on the heels of two other purchases earlier in the week and brings total SRW sales to China near 145 mb, which equals the USDA’s estimate.
Estimates for today’s USDA wheat export sales update range between 250,000 mt and 800,000 mt. Last week, the USDA reported 635,000 mt in wheat sales.
With the added Chinese purchases, US SRW ending stocks are declining. This could be lending support to the Chicago contracts and triggering some fund short covering of their estimated 97,000 contract short position.
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