11-6 End of Day: Grain Markets Shrug off Election Negativity to Close Well of the Lows
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 426.25 | 7.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 439 | 7 |
| DEC ’25 | 445.75 | 3.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JAN ’25 | 1003.75 | 2 |
| MAR ’25 | 1014.75 | 0 |
| NOV ’25 | 1032 | -3.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 573.25 | 0.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 591 | 0 |
| JUL ’25 | 607 | -0.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 574 | -2.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 585.75 | -3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 603 | -3.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 605.5 | -5 |
| MAR ’25 | 627.5 | -4.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 653 | -4.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 5951.75 | 139.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JAN ’25 | 71.32 | -0.24 |
| Gold | ||
| JAN ’25 | 2688.7 | -73.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- December corn closed at the top of its range and at the highest level since early October as technical buying, positive money flow, and strong demand kept buyers active following the election.
- Soybeans settled mixed and near the top of the day’s nearly 26-cent range in the January contract, with support from sharply higher soybean oil, after initially trading sharply lower on election results.
- Strong palm oil prices and concern regarding potential Trump tariffs on imported used cooking oil drove soybean oil prices to fresh 4-month highs. Meanwhile, December meal closed with only mild losses after printing fresh contract lows.
- Despite the sharply higher US Dollar index, the wheat complex managed to trade well off the day’s lows, closing with relatively minor losses overall, supported by higher corn and Matif wheat.
- To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- December corn futures closed at the top of the day’s trading range and posted its highest close in nearly a month as buyers stepped into the corn market. The markets in general saw a rebalancing after last night’s election results, and the corn market benefited from some positive money flowing into it.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Corn sales have remained strong, providing support to the corn market. A large portion of tomorrow’s sales are known from announced daily sales over the last week as Mexico and unknown destinations have been active buyers in the export market.
- Corn export sales could remain friendly and support the market. The available export supplies of corn in Brazil are limited, keeping the US the most competitive export market. For the month of October, Brazil corn export shipments were 6.4 mmt (252 MB), down 24% from last year, but still above the average for the month. Only 2% of that corn went to China, but non-China corn exports were up 25% year over year.
- Weekly ethanol production remained strong with production slightly higher week over week at 1.105 million barrels per day, up 5% over last year. A total of 111 mb of corn was used for production last week, which is still ahead of the target pace to reach USDA projections for the marketing year.
- The US dollar surged to its highest point since early July as it traded sharply higher after the election results. If the dollar index can maintain its strength, that could be a headwind for higher corn and commodity prices in general.
Above: December corn once again found support near the 50-day moving average and rallied to the 425 resistance area and 200-day moving average. A close above this level could set a target of 434 ¼ for the next move. Should prices retreat and close below the 50-day ma, initial support may be found between 409 and the 100-day ma, with further support near 397.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day mixed with the front months trading higher and deferred contracts slightly lower. Soybeans recovered sharply from overnight lows that were up to 21 cents lower following the election results and concerns over future tariffs. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was sharply higher.
- Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month. World ending stocks are expected to be lowered slightly.
- In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean crop is reportedly 53.3% planted, compared to 38% last week and 48% last year, according to Conab. This is the second-highest planting percentage for this time of year, despite an earlier drought that had caused some delays.
- The Argentina’s soybean production is expected to be revised slightly higher to 51.3 mmt from 51.0 mmt last month, with Brazil’s production expected to be lowered to 168.6 mmt from 169.0 mmt last month. South American weather has remained rainy and beneficial for this time of year.
Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat ended mixed to slightly lower, showing resilience despite a strong surge in the US Dollar Index, which closed up 1.64 at 105.06, a level last seen in early July. Typically, wheat has an inverse relationship with the Dollar, making its performance, particularly with a close well off session lows, notable. Strength from higher US corn and Paris milling wheat likely supported today’s trade.
- With the presidential election over, traders will likely focus to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s WASDE report. The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Although no major changes are anticipated in US wheat numbers on Friday, global supply and demand figures could be a wildcard.
- The US southern plains are expected to get another two or three inches of rain by the end of the weekend, which should go a long way in reducing drought conditions. However, more will be needed as traders will be keeping a close eye on updates to the drought monitor map.
- Russian wheat stocks were at 38.7 mmt as of October 1, down 14% year-over-year, according to SovEcon. This decline is attributed to a combination of reduced production and record exports, which reached 15 mmt from July through September—a pace considered unsustainable.
- The European Commission reported a 32% drop in EU soft wheat exports year-over-year as of November 3. Exports since the season’s start on July 1 reached 7.76 mmt, down from 11.33 mmt a year ago. Nigeria was the top buyer at 1.26 mmt, followed by Egypt and Morocco with smaller volumes.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Initial resistance lies near 580 with more significant resistance around 595 – 600.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market has largely been sideways since rallying off 561 support on Oct. 29. A close above 583 could set the market up to rally toward the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. Otherwise, a break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: So far, the 615 – 624 resistance area has held. A close above this area could set the market up for a rally towards the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.