All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23	449.75	-1.75
MAR ’24	475.75	2.25
DEC ’24	507.75	2

Soybeans
JAN ’24	1347	0.5
MAR ’24	1365.5	0.75
NOV ’24	1292.5	-0.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23	556	12.25
MAR ’24	585.75	13.75
JUL ’24	613.5	11.75

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23	640	27
MAR ’24	634.25	16.5
JUL ’24	644.25	15

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23	696.75	2.25
MAR ’24	725.25	12
SEP ’24	754.5	13

S&P 500
DEC ’23	4567.5	4.5

Crude Oil
JAN ’24	77.91	1.5

Gold
JAN ’24	2057.1	6.6

Grain Market Highlights

December corn continues to trade lower on further liquidation ahead of tomorrow’s First Notice Day. March corn rallied back after making a fresh contract low to close higher on the day with a classic bullish reversal.
After trading on both sides of unchanged, the soybean complex settled mixed with the January beans closing fractionally better, unable to hold above the psychological level of 1350 from overnight, while meal and oil both settled lower on the day. Soybean meal continued its slide lower despite firm bids for export and oil turned lower after hitting resistance at last week’s highs.
The wheat complex continued its march higher with all three classes settling in the green as oversold markets and potential reductions to Australia’s wheat crop entice traders to cover short positions.
Before rallying back higher, the US dollar printed a fresh three-month low which may have added a layer of support to the grain markets, as the financial markets have begun to embrace the idea that the US economy may be slowing and in less need of further tightening from the Federal Reserve.
To see the updated US and South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator maps, courtesy nasagrace.unl.edu and the NDMC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

After posting new lows for the recent move, corn futures found some buying strength and prices reversed off session lows. March corn futures gained 2 ¼ cents on the session. The turn higher in prices marked a bullish reversal on corn charts, which could lead to some additional buying strength in upcoming sessions.
The First Notice Day for December corn is tomorrow November 30, and that may have added to the selling pressure in the December contract since the holder of long corn contracts needs to exit those positions or risk the prospects of delivery.
Ethanol production slipped to 1,011,000 barrels per day last week, down slightly from last week and last year. Ethanol stocks slipped to 21.4 million barrels. Total corn used last week was estimated at 100.6 mb. For the marketing year, corn used for ethanol production reached 1.238 billion bushels, up 32 mb from last year or 2.7%
USDA will release weekly exports sales on Thursday morning. Total new sales for corn are expected to range from 600,000 – 1,200,000 mt for last week. Overall corn export sales have improved but are still below the pace needed to meet USDA targets.
The weaker corn price, and strong premiums for Brazil and Argentina corn can improve the prospects of more corn export business for the US. A strong Brazilian real versus the US dollar will also be a contributing factor to possible improved sale pace.

Above: The nearby corn contract has rejected the 100-day moving average on the daily continuous chart and has slipped below the 50-day moving average. Initial resistance now rests just above the market near 496 with further heavy resistance between 500 and 509 ½. Support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales.
No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged today but ultimately ended the day mixed with the front months slightly higher and the November ‘24 contract slightly lower. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal under pressure from expectations of a normal Argentinian harvest.
After last year’s drought in Argentina, soybean production was severely cut which caused the normally number one exporter of soybean meal to run short on supplies. As a result, the US picked up a lot of that business, but now Argentina weather is looking favorable for this year’s soybean crop and could cause US meal prices to fall sharply.
In Brazil, weather is expected to improve over the next seven days with better chances for rain in central and northern Brazil and decreased chances in rain-soaked southern Brazil. The country is reportedly 8 to 10 days behind its normal pace of planting, but the worst of the El Nino pattern may be over.
While US exports have improved over the past few months, total export sales are still 20% behind year ago levels as we compete with last year’s record Brazilian harvest and cheaper prices. Meanwhile, domestic demand has been firm with profitable crush margins.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high. Since then, the market has retested the recent high and failed, creating a head-and-shoulders pattern which suggests a potential to test October’s 1250 low unless bullish input enters the market. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market near the 50-day moving average and again near 1297.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

All three US wheat futures classes closed higher with Kansas City leading the way. Support came from higher Matif futures, as well as correction from oversold conditions. There were also reports that heavy rain in southeastern Australia contributed to crop damage. This headline offered support to prices, with talk that their production may decline by 100,000 mt, and 1 mmt of wheat may be downgraded to feed.
Also supportive to wheat is the fact that Russian wheat values have moved higher, putting US and French soft wheat back on the playfield (in terms of the export market). Whether or not this will last is the question though; Russia’s ag minister stated that with 98% of the crop harvested, 99 mmt of wheat has been collected which would be the second largest crop on record.
According to SovEcon, the 2024 Russian wheat crop is estimated to fall to 89.8 mmt, versus 91.5 previously, due to expectations for declining conditions and poorer yields. A crop this size would still be above average, however, and Russia is likely to remain dominant on the export front.
India has announced a $142 billion plan to extend a free food program for 800 million people. The five year program extension will allow recipients to get five kilograms of rice or wheat per month. The extension will begin January 1st and is intended to help consumers face high internal food costs.
The US Dollar, while on both sides of unchanged today, has been in an overall downtrend. This may have also offered support to wheat and the grain complex today. Traders will await any news from the Federal Reserve regarding further interest rate increases versus pausing the hikes, which will have continued impact on the US Dollar index.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650. Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the Jul ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range, between 740 and 860, to the downside. Since that breakout, the market has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by managed fund selling, weak US export demand, and lower world wheat prices. As the selloff progressed, the funds built up the largest net short position in three years. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. Though as the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent resumption of the downtrend has left the KC wheat market oversold with resistance now above the market between 633 and 661. The market’s oversold status can be supportive if a catalyst enters the market to turn prices back higher. Without a bullish catalyst, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell SEP ’24 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop. Since late July, Sept ’24 Mpls wheat has been slowly stair-stepping lower, providing no rallies of substance to sell into. While we see improving conditions in the market that could provide fuel for a bottom and future upside sales opportunities, we also know historically, that if the market breaks support this time of year, it poses the risk that prices could continue to trend overall lower into spring of next year. All that said, a close below 743 support would signal that a trend lower into next year is a risk. Although Grain Market Insider still looks for higher prices, we know from our historical research the importance of having a “plan b” this time of year. With a daily close below 743, Grain Market Insider will recommend selling a portion of your 2024 crop while prices are still relatively elevated and historically good in case they erode further. While the mid-700s may not be the 1000 or higher that we’ve seen in the last two years, it remains much better than the possible 500 – 600 that the market saw back in 2020 and early 2021.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since the nearby contract rolled from the December to the March, prices have steadily declined through the October low of 703 ¼ and may be on track to test major support near the May ’21 low of 669. If prices turn back higher, resistance now stands between 721 and 740 with heavy resistance near 750.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather