All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23	477.25	13.25
MAR ’24	492.75	13.75
DEC ’24	517.5	10.75

Soybeans
JAN ’24	1382.5	35
MAR ’24	1395	34.25
NOV ’24	1307	27.25

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23	579	3.75
MAR ’24	602.25	3
JUL ’24	630	1.25

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23	641.5	1.5
MAR ’24	652	1.25
JUL ’24	664.75	1

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23	728.75	-1.75
MAR ’24	744	1.5
SEP ’24	770.5	2

S&P 500
DEC ’23	4431.5	1

Crude Oil
JAN ’24	78.39	1.24

Gold
JAN ’24	1961.5	13.5

Grain Market Highlights

Sharply higher soybeans and Brazilian weather concerns supported the corn market into the close with a bullish reversal and some likely short covering, after making a fresh new low for the move.
A slow planting pace due to hot and dry weather in Brazil, along with sharply higher soybean meal, took soybeans to a 35 cent gain on the day, after a 6 ¼ cent gap open Sunday night.
Expectations of strong US meal demand due to potentially shrinking South American crops continues to underpin soybean meal, which printed a new contract high as it briefly locked limit up. Meanwhile, spillover strength from soybeans and meal rallied bean oil 1.71 cents off its low to close .34 cents higher on the day.
Carryover support from corn and soybeans rallied most of the wheat complex to close in positive territory, except for December Minneapolis. Though the closing gains were minor, the market collectively settled between 6 and 11 cents off the respective lows, and may have triggered some short covering on the rally.
To see the US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week precipitation forecasts, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

It was a strong day in the corn market to start the week, as concerns over Brazil weather and heavy buying in the soybean market spilled over into the corn market, triggering short covering. The strong close and positive price action could lead to some additional follow-through buying going into tomorrow’s session.
Weather forecasts stay extremely hot and dry for Brazil grain producing areas for the next 10-days. Weather models are looking at some potential rains at the end of that time period, but accuracy of longer-range models is questionable. Brazilian corn futures traded sharply higher on the day, trying to encourage producers to plant the important 2nd crop Brazil corn.
Weekly corn export inspections were within analysts’ expectations during Monday’s USDA Inspections report. Last week, U.S. exports shipped 609,000 mt of corn (24 mb), year to date, total inspections are at 6.161 mmt, up 23% over last year.
The USDA Crop Progress report will likely show that corn harvest is in the last legs. Last week, the harvest was 81% complete. That total should be closer to the 90% window with just the northern states lagging in harvest.
With the bump in prices, rallies may stay limited due to harvest pressure and large supplies available after the completion of a potential near record 2023 corn crop.

Above: Front month corn posted a bullish key reversal after printing a new low for the move on Nov. 13. The market continues to show signs of being oversold, which is supportive to the reversal. If prices can push through overhead resistance near 484, prices could move higher to test 500 – 509 ½. If not, support below the market remains 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.
No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day with big gains thanks to a sharp rally in soybean meal, as export demand heats up. Hot and dry conditions in Brazil have been very supportive, while southern Brazil deals with excessive rains. Soybean oil managed to close slightly higher, along with crude oil.
China has become a much more active buyer of US soybeans since Brazil’s stores began getting emptied with China and unknown destinations purchasing nearly 100 mb of soybeans just last week. A flash sale was also reported today of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybean planting in Brazil is now estimated at 57% complete by Safras & Mercado, which is behind last year’s pace of 67%. There are also estimates that 20-25% of Brazilian soybeans will need to be replanted due to the dry conditions.
Last week’s WASDE report was slightly bearish, but received a much more negative reaction, which may have been offset today. Yields were increased by 0.3 bpa to 49.9 bpa, which increased production by 25 mb and that went right to increasing the ending stocks to 245 mb.

Above: January soybeans closed sharply higher following a gap higher open on Nov. 13. The development is bullish, though resistance remains overhead between 1385 and 1410, and the market may seek to fill the gap left from 1349 ¾. If the market can close above 1410, it would be poised to make a run toward 1490 – 1505. If not, initial support below the market rests between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1317.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed in positive territory, despite trading lower this morning. Today’s gains in wheat were minimal, and it was likely pulled higher by corn and especially the sharply higher soybean market. If the wheat export inspections were better, there may have been more of a rally. However, inspections of just 7.6 mb were poor; this brings the total 23/24 inspections to 274 mb, still down 26% from last year.
Russia’s wheat FOB export values are said to have risen by about $5-$7 per metric ton. For now, they are still very competitive and getting much of the world’s export business. However, this change could indicate that wheat prices may begin to rise globally. On the other hand, the USDA report last week did result in a 5 mmt increase to Russia’s crop to 90 mmt, so they will likely remain competitive on exports.
Although there are problems in Brazil, Argentina’s weather has turned more favorable. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat production is estimated at 15.4 mmt, with their harvest now 14.4% complete, compared with 9.3% last week.
China looks like it will remain the world’s top wheat importer for the second year in a row. On last week’s report, the USDA estimated that China will purchase 12 mmt of wheat for the 23/24 season. Elsewhere, Egypt is struggling with economic issues that are curbing their wheat imports, as a result of their currency losing about half its value since the beginning of 2022.
According to FranceAgriMer, as of November 6th, 67% of the French soft wheat crop has been planted. That is behind both the average and last year’s pace. The slowdown is attributed to wet weather and muddy fields. The heavy rainfall they have seen could reduce the planted acreage and lead to an increase in prices.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: December wheat rejected the bearish reversal from November 7 and traded sharply higher. It is now in range to test the October high of 604 ½ and possibly resistance near 618. If the market turns back lower, support below the market, may be found between 564 and 554.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and tested minor support which has held so far with the low at 625 ½. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.
No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 7 the December contract posted a bearish reversal, which may indicate lower prices ahead unless bullish information enters the market to turn prices higher. Currently, upside resistance now lies between 735 and 755, with initial support below the market near 703. The next major level of support is near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather