11-12 End of Day: Markets Close Lower Across the Board
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 428.5 | -1.5 |
| MAR ’25 | 440.25 | -2.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 442.75 | -3 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JAN ’25 | 1010.5 | -11.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 1022.5 | -12.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1031.75 | -13.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 552.25 | -13.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 567 | -13.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 584.75 | -13.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 546.5 | -13 |
| MAR ’25 | 560.75 | -12.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 579.25 | -12.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 592 | -5.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 612.25 | -5 |
| SEP ’25 | 643.25 | -2.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 6024.5 | -7.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JAN ’25 | 68.15 | 0.23 |
| Gold | ||
| JAN ’25 | 2618.2 | -11.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market closed near the bottom of the day’s range, with relatively small losses as it continues to consolidate inside Friday’s trading range. Selling pressure came from lower wheat and soybeans, and a higher US dollar.
- Soybeans followed through on Monday’s weak close from technical selling and sharply lower soybean oil, which has reversed its recent up trend.
- Soybean oil followed palm oil lower, which lost 3.2% overnight after reaching 2 ½ year highs. Meal also closed down on the day as it continues to drift sideways to lower.
- The wheat complex settled with double-digit losses across the board after rejecting Monday’s late day strength. Expectations of more rain in the US Plains, carryover weakness from lower Matif wheat, and a rising US Dollar Index contributed to the weakness.
- To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures finished lower for the second straight session, pressured by selling momentum across the soybean and wheat markets, as the US dollar remains strong.
- The US dollar continued its breakout move after the election, trading higher in four of the past five sessions and reaching its highest level since June. The strong dollar has triggered some producer selling in Brazil and Argentina and may have weakened the competitiveness of US grains against global competition.
- The USDA released weekly export inspection for corn today. Inspections last week totaled 793,012 mt (31.2 mb), down slightly from the previous week’s total. Total inspections are now at 324 mb, up 31% over last year.
- The USDA announced a flash sale of corn on the export market this morning. Mexico purchased 110,500 mt (4.35 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.
- The weekly crop progress report will be released later this afternoon, delayed due to the Veterans Day holiday. The market expects the corn harvest to be nearly 95% complete as producers wrap up this year’s work.
Above: December corn continues to see resistance in the 435 area. A close above this level could put the market in position to rally toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. If prices retreat, support below the market may lie between 415 and 409.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive day, likely due to technical selling after failing to close above the 100-day moving average twice in a row. Most of today’s pressure came from sharply lower soybean oil, which reversed the recent trend of soybean oil gains while meal slipped. However, with meal prices so low, demand may now be kicking in.
- Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 83.7 mb for the week ending November 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 560 mb, which is up 6% from this point last year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.825 bb for 24/25 which would be up 7% from last year.
- In Brazil, the soybean crop is reportedly 67% planted as of Nov 7, according to AgRural. This compares to 54% a week ago and 61% the previous year. It has been impressive to see how quickly planting has rebounded after the weather delays.
- Since the election results were announced, there has been a sharp rise in the US dollar. Many of the export sales seen by the US ahead of the election are now being diverted to South America as soybeans there have become cheaper as a result of the difference between the US Dollar and Brazilian Real.
Above: The reversal in January soybeans suggests that the 1044–1050 resistance area remains intact, with prices potentially retreating toward the October lows, where support may be found near 975. Psychological support could emerge around the 1000 level before that. If prices regain their strength, a close above 1044 could lead to a test of the 1070 area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes. Pressure again came from a lower close for Matif wheat, another rise in the US Dollar Index, and spillover weakness from lower corn and soybeans. Additional precipitation expected in the US Plains states over the next week or so also added weight to the wheat complex.
- Weekly wheat export inspections of 12.8 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 372 mb, up 40% from last year. This is ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace; they project total wheat exports at 825 mb, an increase of 17% from the previous year.
- According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, winter grain plantings are 96.3% complete, with about 5 million hectares sown out of the expected 5.19 million. Of that total, wheat is reportedly planted on 4.4 million hectares, or 97.2% of the estimated area. Notably, around 95% of Ukraine’s wheat output is winter wheat.
- Wheat prices in Brazil reportedly increased last week, partly due to speculation that the government might make domestic purchases. Current prices are said to be below the government’s minimum thresholds of 78.51 BRL per 60 kg bag in the south and 80.00 BRL in other regions. The federal government has indicated it may purchase up to 200,000 mt of wheat from producers in Rio Grande do Sul.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The market’s apparent rejection of the potential reversal on Nov. 11 and close near 552, suggests that lower prices may be ahead in the near term, though they may find support in the 521 – 514 area. Should the market turn around, heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586 before they can continue to higher.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market’s close below 547 support suggests prices may be at risk of testing major support near the 527 ¼ August low. A reversal back higher may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The close below 583 in the December contract puts the market at risk of trading down towards major support near the August low of 563. If a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher, heavy resistance remains between 615 and 624.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Brazil, N. Argentina 2- week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.