11-11 End of Day: Corn and Beans Fail to Extend Friday’s Gains as Wheat Breaks Lower
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 430 | -1 |
| MAR ’25 | 442.75 | -1.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 445.75 | -3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| JAN ’25 | 1022.25 | -8 |
| MAR ’25 | 1035.25 | -8.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1045 | -7.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 565.5 | -7 |
| MAR ’25 | 580.5 | -7 |
| JUL ’25 | 598.25 | -6.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 559.5 | -4.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 573 | -4.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 591.5 | -4 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 592 | -5.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 612.25 | -5 |
| SEP ’25 | 643.25 | -2.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 6027.25 | 2 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| JAN ’25 | 68.03 | -2.08 |
| Gold | ||
| JAN ’25 | 2640.5 | -66.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures failed to gain traction to the upside and settled mid-range, weighed down by lower wheat, strength in the US dollar, and a still sizable US supply.
- Soybeans closed at the low end of its range following another failed test to stay above the 100-day moving average. Carryover weakness from a bearish reversal in soybean oil, and a lower close in meal contributed to the day’s decline.
- Much needed rain over winter wheat areas this weekend triggered early selling across the wheat complex. While the complex closed lower overall, December contracts for all three classes settled in the upper-middle of their respective ranges.
- To see updated US and South American precipitation forecasts, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
- Grain Market Insider sees an opportunity for catch-up sales on a portion of your 2024 corn crop. The corn market has traded back towards the top of the 397 – 434 range that it has been in since September. If you missed any of our three previous sales recommendations from earlier in the season, this rally represents a good opportunity to begin to catch up.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market finished lower on the day, pressured by heavy overall supplies, a strong US dollar and selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets.
- December corn futures failed to find some follow through buying after Friday’s USDA report. Despite the reduced yield and production, the corn carry out was only 8 mb below market expectations, which limited the market’s upside. Prices did hold support at 425 in the December contract, finishing in the middle of Friday’s price range.
- With the Veteran’s Day Holiday, the USDA will release weekly export inspections on Tuesday. The expectation for those shipments is for them to be in the 700,000 to 900,000 mt range.
- The corn market may be limited as it moves closer to the First Notice Day for December futures, and producers holding December basis contracts will need to either price those bushels or roll them to the March contract
- Managed funds have become long in the corn market for the first time since August 2023. They built a long position of approximately 22,000 contracts, completely erasing the record short position they held this past summer.
Above: December corn tested the October high and retreated, signaling resistance in that area. A breakout above this level set the market up for a move toward 475, with potential resistance between 450 and 455. Below the market, If prices retreat, support below the market may come in between 415 and 409.
Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 39,746 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net long 22,043 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our previous sales recommendations, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the fall to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Jan ‘25 could provide a good opportunity. For those with capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Jan ‘25. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower after trading higher in the morning, which brought January futures up to the 100-day moving average before sliding back for the second consecutive day. Friday’s WASDE report was friendly with a cut to yield and a decrease in ending stocks. Despite these cuts, the US is still on track to produce a very large soybean crop.
- This morning, soy products initially moved in opposite directions, with soybean meal rising and soybean oil falling. However, both slipped throughout the day and closed lower, with soybean oil posting larger losses. Recent increases in crush have met demand for soybean oil but have created a surplus of soybean meal.
- Friday’s WASDE report showed soybean yields dropping more than expected, from 53.1 bpa last month to 51.7 bpa. As a result, total production declined to 4.461 billion bushels from 4.582 billion, with 24/25 US ending stocks falling to 470 million bushels from 550 million. Export demand was reduced by 25 million bushels despite strong recent sales, and global ending stocks also dropped, coming in below the lower range of analyst estimates.
- Friday’s CFTC report indicated that, as of November 5, funds had bought back just 2,114 contracts, leaving them net short 70,112 contracts. It’s estimated that funds have bought back an additional 28,000 contracts since then.
Above: The breakout above 1018 on Nov. 7, suggests the market has the potential to test the September highs near 1070. Before reaching that point, prices may encounter nearby resistance between 1044 and 1050. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near the 50-day moving average and again near 975.
Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,114 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 70,112 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat was under pressure today and, though it still posted a negative close, managed to finish well above session lows. Much of the weakness stemmed from good rains that moved across the US winter wheat belt over the weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and improve crop prospects. Adding to the weakness, the US Dollar Index pushed to a new near-term high today.
- According to SovEcon, Russia exported 770,000 mt of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 720,000 mt of that total. This was well below the 1.12 mmt of wheat exported the prior week. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values ended last week at $228 per mt, down from $232 the week before and well below the government’s suggested $245 price floor.
- Ukrainian grain exports for the first week of November rose about 5% from the previous year to 902,000 mt, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. Since the season began on July 1, total grain exports have reached 15.3 mmt, up 52% from last year. Wheat alone accounts for 8 mmt of that total, which is an increase of 60% from last year.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy is targeting the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The break below 558 and close just above indicates that support may still lie between 558 and 552. If prices remain above 558 and rally, they may target the 600 – 617 area, though heavy resistance remains between 580 and 586. Otherwise, a close below 552 may suggest further weakness and a test of 521 – 514 support area.
Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 391 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 30,781 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The break below 561 appears to have found initial support around 547. Although a close below this level could lead to a market test of support near the August low of 527. Should prices turn back higher, they may still encounter heavy resistance near 580 – 583 before testing the 593 – 603 resistance area.
KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,920 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 14,080 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The market break below 595 may have found support near 583. If this support holds and prices turnaround, they may still find heavy resistance between 615 and 624, a rally above which could set the market up to test the October highs with intermediate resistance near 637. Otherwise, a retreat through 583, could lead to a test of the 563 August low.
Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, Nov. 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,127 contracts between Oct. 30 – Nov. 5, bringing their total position to a net short 17,108 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Brazil, N. Argentina 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.