All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23	477.25	7.25
MAR ’24	492.25	7.25
DEC ’24	517.5	7

Soybeans
JAN ’24	1351.75	23.5
MAR ’24	1366.5	24.5
NOV ’24	1297	19

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23	572.5	7
MAR ’24	599.25	6.5
JUL ’24	632	6.75

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23	643.5	2
MAR ’24	654.75	2
JUL ’24	669.75	2.5

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23	721	10.25
MAR ’24	739.5	9.75
SEP ’24	770.5	7.75

S&P 500
DEC ’23	4389.5	53.75

Crude Oil
JAN ’24	80.48	-1.68

Gold
JAN ’23	1928.6	-0.5

Grain Market Highlights

Technical buying and short covering dominated the corn market as money flow moved into the grain markets, sparked by a sharply lower US dollar, and led December corn to post a bullish reversal on the day.
Despite the sharp drop in soybean oil and lower crude oil, the report of another sale totaling 131k mt of soybeans to unknown destinations, along with sharply higher soybean meal and the lower US dollar helped soybeans rally to double-digit gains across the board.
Carryover strength from corn and beans, a reduction in world wheat stocks by FAO-AMIS, and the weak US dollar all contributed to the gains in the wheat complex that may have posted near-term lows if the rally can be sustained.
A weaker than expected US employment report rallied the stock market and interest rate futures (lowered int. rates) and pressed the US dollar lower to its lowest level since late mid-September. The break in the dollar in turn lent support to the grain markets. The weaker employment report reflects a weaker economy and reduces the need for additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
To see the US 7-day precipitation forecast, the South American 7-day total accumulated precipitation and 1-week forecast precipitation maps, courtesy of the NWS, and CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. On October 19, December corn closed above 500 for the first time since the end of July. While the market was unable to follow through to the upside, the overall trend remains positive with successively higher lows, from mid-August. If the market can maintain a close above 500 and the 100-day moving average, it may aim to test resistance near 547. Otherwise, if the market closes below the 50-day moving average near 485, it may run the risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, with a worst-case scenario being a sideways to lower trend into late November, or even early January. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds about a 30 cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has held the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Short covering and technical buying helped pull corn futures higher to end the week, as grain markets saw good money flow during Friday’s session. Overnight, December corn futures tested and held the September low and a strong break in the US dollar triggered fund short liquidation. Dec corn gained 7 ¼ cents on the day but was 3 ½ cents lower on the week.
The US dollar broke over a full basis point lower on Friday as the move lower in the dollar was triggered by weakness in today’s employment report and a more dovish (friendly) tone by the Fed regarding interest rates going forward. The Dollar Index posted a weekly bearish reversal on charts, which could lead to additional long liquidation.
Corn futures did post a technical reversal on daily charts during today’s session but failed at nearby overhead resistance. Trade early next week and the potential follow-through in price gains will be very key or sellers could take over the market again.
Price gains in the corn market were limited by continued hedge pressure. With harvest moving into the last 15% to be completed, fresh supplies of better-than-expected yields in some areas are hitting the cash market.
On November 9, the USDA will release the next crop production report. The market could be choppy next week with position squaring going into the report. Early expectations are for the USDA to slightly increase corn yield and production, which could add bushels back to an already heavy supply picture.

Above: On November 3, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal with a low of 468. The 50-day moving average is just above the market at 484, and the market is oversold. If prices can push over 484, they may move higher to test 500 – 509 ½. If not, support below the market rests between 468 and 460.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through nearby resistance and the 50-day moving average and may be poised to test the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.
No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop for nearly its entire contract life and that discount extended out to 142 versus the Jan ’24 contract in late July, with it recently trading between 17 ¾ and 66 cents. Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has mostly traded between 1250 and 1320. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans closed firmly higher to end the week following strong gains yesterday, as well. The US dollar moved sharply lower which helped support the grain complex today. Soybean meal posted huge gains with the Jan contract up 4%. For the week, Nov soybeans gained 30-1/4, Dec meal lost 0.30, and Dec bean oil lost 2.91.
This was a good week for export demand with a solid export inspections number, good export sales yesterday of 37.1 mb for 23/24, and huge shipments of 73.2 mb which were primarily to China. Today, private exporters also reported sales of 131,150 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.
US soybean yields are coming under more scrutiny as many producers report better than expected corn yields, but subpar soybean yields. StoneX recently revised their bean yield estimates lower than their last month’s guess, and next week the USDA will update their estimate in the WASDE report, which has the potential to be reduced.
In Brazil, weather is still a concern with the 10-day forecast turning very dry again. Argentina has received some beneficial rains, but southern Brazil is still too wet. There have been reports in Brazil of producers recently tearing up planted soybeans in favor of cotton.

Above: On November 3, January soybeans maintained strength above the 50-day moving average and closed above 1334 resistance, which now has become support. With the strong close, the market is poised to test 1370 – 1385. Below the market support is now between 1334 and the 50-day moving average, and again down near 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

The US Dollar Index was sharply lower today. As of this writing, it is down 1.07 at 105.05; this is quite a dip and certainly helped the grain markets to rally today with strong gains in corn and wheat. Soybeans were the leader with more than 20-cent gains and helped to pull wheat higher too.
All three US wheat futures classes could be considered at or near oversold levels, and with today’s move higher stochastics are indicating potential buy signals. If the rally can be sustained on Monday, a near-term bottom might be in.
Also helping wheat today was a cut to the estimate of world wheat stocks by FAO-AMIS. For 23/24 the projection is now at 315.1 mmt vs 319.3 mmt last month. With the next USDA report due for release this upcoming Thursday, traders will have to wait and see if they make any sort of similar revision.
While they have received recent rains that have benefited soil moisture levels, it hasn’t been enough to reverse the drought in Argentina. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is now forecasted down 4.9% to 15.4 mmt, vs 16.2 mmt previously. There could also be further cuts if the frost in the forecast is accurate.
Rain in France is slowing fieldwork, and as of October 30^th, an estimated 62% of their soft wheat crop is planted. According to FranceAgriMer, that is down from both last year and the five-year average. The short-term forecast may call for more rain, causing continued delays.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Since making a mid-summer high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend, but after finding support at 540 on September 29, the market has steadily rallied, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. With weak US export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600’s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On October 20, the December contract posted a bearish reversal after making a new recent high of 604 ½. The market has retreated and solidified resistance above the market that now stands between 604 ½ and 618. Without bullish input, the market is likely to trend sideways to lower with the next major support level between 547 and 540.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. With prices falling below the October 12 low of 655 ¼, the Dec ’23 contract continues to search for support as it resumes the downtrend that has been in place since late July. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and has now tested minor support near 630, which has held so far. The next level of major support below that remains near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700, with minor resistance near 655.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if 707 ½ is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.
No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since the last week of October, the December contract has resumed the downward trend that has been in place since the end of July and found nearby support near 703. If fresh bullish news doesn’t enter the market, prices could slide to the next level of support near 669, the May ’21 low. If prices turn higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather