All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23	475	-3.75
MAR ’24	489.75	-3.25
DEC ’24	511.25	-1.75

Soybeans
JAN ’24	1315	4.5
MAR ’24	1328.75	4
NOV ’24	1268.25	1.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23	561.75	5.5
MAR ’24	589.5	4.25
JUL ’24	623.5	4.25

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23	640	10.75
MAR ’24	650.5	9.25
JUL ’24	664.75	8.75

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23	709	-0.25
MAR ’24	728.5	0
SEP ’24	762.25	-0.25

S&P 500
DEC ’23	4231.25	19

Crude Oil
JAN ’24	80.21	-0.29

Gold
JAN ’23	1928.6	-0.5

Grain Market Highlights

Sellers remain a dominant force in the corn market with harvest pressure continuing to weigh on prices and a general lack of fresh bullish news to bring in new buying interest.
After trading lower on this morning’s open, soybeans recovered along with meal to close 10 ¼ cents off the low and 4 ½ cents higher, despite sharply lower bean oil.
While the improving weather outlook for Argentina spurred some profit taking in soybean meal, higher domestic demand, and the prospect for increased exports, it kept the market supported as it recovered from early losses to close the day just 60 cents below unchanged. Whereas, soybean oil resumed its slide lower as it broke through the June 22 low of 51.36, despite strong biofuel use numbers.
Despite strength in the US dollar and weakness in the corn market, the wheat complex staged a bit of a recovery today led by KC and Chicago, with short covering spread action possibly weighing on Minneapolis which finished mixed and near unchanged across the board.
The US dollar followed through on yesterday’s strong gains to post its highest level in four weeks before retreating and is within striking distance of testing October’s high. Much of the dollar’s strength is coming from generally weak economic data out of Europe.
To see the November US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the South American 1-week total precipitation for South America, courtesy of the NWS, CPC, and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. On October 19, December corn closed above 500 for the first time since the end of July. While the market was unable to follow through to the upside, the overall trend remains positive with successively higher lows, from mid-August. If the market can maintain a close above 500 and the 100-day moving average, it may aim to test resistance near 547. Otherwise, if the market closes below the 50-day moving average near 485, it may run the risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, with a worst-case scenario being a sideways to lower trend into late November, or even early January. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds about a 30 cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has held the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn prices saw weak price action as futures broke support under the most recent trading range. December futures lost 3 ¾ cents but held the next level of support at 475 on the close. Corn prices remain pressured by the ongoing harvest, and the lack of fresh news overall to bring buying into the market.
Weekly ethanol output rose to an 11-week high at 1.052 million barrels/day for the week ending October 27. This is up from last week and the multi-year average. Last week ethanol production used 101.7 mb of corn, up from last week, but slightly below last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks remain low at 21.0 million barrels. This was the lowest week for ethanol stocks since December 2021.
Demand overall remains a concern in the corn market. The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week saw a jump in sales to 1.35 mmt for corn. The market will be watching to see if that stronger sales trend can continue.
The weak price action and negative close will likely keep short sellers active in the corn market. The downside trend under the December contract points to a test of the fall low and possibly the 460 level if selling pressure continues.
South American weather is forecasted to stay dry and hot for areas of Brazil, and parts of Argentina are seeing signs of last year’s drought persist. While South American weather is still in its early stages, weather will grow more important in the weeks ahead. If soybean planting stays delayed, that could push planting of the key 2nd corn crop past the ideal weather window.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with only minor short covering moving the market higher until recently. With the market trading up to 509 ½ and failing, the next major resistance level now sits at that recent high, with further resistance near the July 31 high of 516 ¼. If the market retreats, the next major support level remains near 460.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract rallied through resistance near 1287 on its way to the recent high of 1334 and testing the 50-day moving average. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.
No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop for nearly its entire contract life and that discount extended out to 142 versus the Jan ’24 contract in late July, with it recently trading between 17 ¾ and 66 cents. Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has mostly traded between 1250 and 1320 and is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans traded either side of unchanged today but ultimately ended higher. There was early support from both soybean meal and oil, but both fell with soybean oil closing sharply lower due to a decline in crude oil that followed the Fed’s rate announcement.
The Federal Reserve announced today that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% but indicated that another rate hike could be implemented in December, but that they need to see how the economy performs in the meantime. Crude oil took a hit from this news which dragged soybean oil lower.
NOPA crush numbers will be released later today with the average trade estimate at 175 mb. This would be above the 169 mb crushed in August, and also above the 167.6 mb a year ago. Crush margins have been very profitable lately and domestic demand has been firm.
In South America, excessive rain in the southern region and dryness in the northern regions of Brazil have some analysts expecting that the final soybean crop will be closer to 150 mmt rather than the 163 mmt that the USDA has estimated. Lower South American production coupled with tight US ending stocks could give soybeans momentum to rally.

Above: In the middle of October, the market traded up to 1334 and pierced the upper end of resistance, and the 50-day moving average, before retreating lower. If the market can maintain a close above resistance at 1334, it would be poised to make a run to test 1370. Otherwise, initial support to the downside may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Both Chicago and Kansas City put some green on the board today, despite the rise in the US Dollar Index and lower corn futures. Whereas Minneapolis futures ended with a mixed close. The relative weakness of Minneapolis in today’s trade could be the result of spread action.
Brazil continues to be too dry in the north and central areas, while the southern region has received too much rain and has had flooding issues. And though they received recent rains, the US ag attaché in Argentina is still predicting their wheat production to fall to 14.5 mmt.
China has reportedly made purchases of 2 mmt of wheat from Australia, with another 2.5 mmt from France. Floods are said to have damaged about 20% of China’s wheat crop, and they may look to import more down the road.
For this marketing year that began July 1st, as of October 27th the EU’s soft wheat exports are down 24% from last year, representing a decline from 12.6 to 9.6 mmt.
According to their agriculture ministry, as of October 31st, Ukraine has planted 4.2 million hectares of winter grain. This includes 3.7 million hectares of wheat, a year-over-year increase of 6%.
Russia’s wheat export duty has reportedly dropped 14%, as of November 1st, to 4,923.4 rubles per metric ton, down from 5,297.7 rubles. This could help Russia maintain their dominance in the world wheat market.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Since making a mid-summer high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend, but after finding support at 540 on September 29, the market has steadily rallied, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. With weak US export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600’s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On October 20, the December contract posted a bearish reversal after making a new recent high of 604 ½. The market has retreated and solidified resistance above the market that now stands between 604 ½ and 618. Without bullish input, the market is likely to trend sideways to lower with the next major support level between 547 and 540.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. With prices falling below the October 12 low of 655 ¼, the Dec ’23 contract continues to search for support as it resumes the downtrend that has been in place since late July. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. The July ’24 contract is currently trading near a 25-cent premium to July ’23, which is up significantly from last July’s 60-cent discount. Weak fundamentals have driven spread activity to push July ’23 toward its contract lows, while July ’24 has been able to maintain more of its value. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed impetus to move prices back toward 750 – 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since breaking through the bottom of the consolidation range at 655, the market has drifted lower and is now testing minor support near 630, with the next level of major support remaining near 575. Major resistance above the market remains around 690 – 700, with minor resistance near 655.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, the Dec ‘23 contract has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if 707 ½ is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.
No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a 50-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains off its low from last May. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July KC 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.
No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since the beginning of October, the market has been consolidating, with the upper end of the range acting as resistance. Initial support below the market lies near the October 2 low, between 711 and 707, with major support remaining near 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather