10-9 End of Day: Soybeans Find Support on Wednesday
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
Corn | ||
DEC ’24 | 421 | 0.25 |
MAR ’25 | 438 | -0.25 |
DEC ’25 | 453.5 | -0.5 |
Soybeans | ||
NOV ’24 | 1020.25 | 4 |
JAN ’25 | 1037 | 2.5 |
NOV ’25 | 1069 | 3.25 |
Chicago Wheat | ||
DEC ’24 | 599 | 4.25 |
MAR ’25 | 622.25 | 4 |
JUL ’25 | 641.5 | 3 |
K.C. Wheat | ||
DEC ’24 | 608.75 | 5 |
MAR ’25 | 625 | 4.75 |
JUL ’25 | 641.75 | 4.25 |
Mpls Wheat | ||
DEC ’24 | 648.25 | 3.25 |
MAR ’25 | 668.75 | 2.5 |
SEP ’25 | 687 | 1.5 |
S&P 500 | ||
DEC ’24 | 5830.25 | 29.75 |
Crude Oil | ||
DEC ’24 | 72.62 | -0.36 |
Gold | ||
DEC ’24 | 2626.1 | -9.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The Wednesday session for corn started with another daily export flash sale announcement of corn sold to unknown destinations but ended with corn closing near unchanged across all contact months.
- Soybeans managed to find support on Wednesday after Tuesday’s poor price action. Soybean meal was lower for a sixth consecutive session while soybean oil closed near unchanged on the day.
- With a mostly dry two-week outlook for nearly the entire Corn Belt, corn and soybean harvest will be able to continue progressing rapidly.
- Higher world wheat prices lifted US wheat futures higher across the board on Wednesday. Weather worries around the globe have continued to provide support to wheat over the last six weeks.
- To see the updated US Weeks 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year, and we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn
- Overall, it was a quiet session in the corn market on Wednesday as Dec corn seems to be pinned to the 420 area on the chart. Slight buying strength in wheat and soybeans helped support corn prices. Trading range from high to low on Dec corn was 3 ½ cents during the session.
- USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Tuesday morning. Uknown destinations bought 126,000MT (5.0 mb) of U.S. corn for the current marketing year.
- Weekly US ethanol production continues to show strength. Production last week increased by 23,000 barrels per day to 1.038 million. Current corn usage is ahead of the expected pace for the current marketing year.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for corn export sales from last week are to range from 900,000 – 1.7 MMT of new sales. On last week’s report, corn export sales totaled 1.684 MMT.
- The USDA will release the next Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Friday morning. Expectations are for corn yield to decrease slightly to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month. With improved demand, and slightly lower potential production, corn carryout for the marketing year is looking to be lowered for the fourth consecutive month to just below the key psychological level of 2.000 billion bushels.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans managed a positive close today, despite yesterday’s negative price action and continued improvements to Brazil’s rainfall outlook. Technical support levels may have aided today’s small rally. For the November contract, both the 40- and 50-day moving averages are converged around the 1010 level – this was tested yesterday and again today, indicating it may be a key area of support.
- The decline in the Chinese stock market on Wednesday may cause concerns about their economy, and thus their demand for soybeans. Beijing’s attempt at economic stimulus has reportedly been disappointing, and this could pressure US commodity and equity markets.
- On a bullish note, the potential for higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia could lead to a tightening supply of palm oil. This, in turn, could support US soybean oil futures. Currently, Indonesia has a 35% mandated palm oil blend in their biodiesel, but that could be increased to 40%. It is estimated this would lead to 1.5-1.7 mmt additional palm oil use.
- Brazil weather stays as a focus in the soybean market. Rain chances continue to improve, especially for the middle to last half of October. Brazil soybean planting is 4.5% complete according to Brazil analyst, AgRural. This was up 2% week over week, but down 5.5% from last year.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for news sales last week are to range from 800,000 – 1.7 MMT. Last week’s report posted sales of 1.444 MMt, which was within the range of estimates for the report. Current soybean demand has been good, supporting prices.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat was again the upside leader today in the grain complex. Initial strength came from a gap higher in Paris milling wheat futures. However, the Matif wheat ended up closing in the red, yet US futures rejected that negativity. Support also came from higher Ukrainian export quotes after the recent attacks on grain vessels.
- The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have called for an emergency meeting of grain exporters on Friday. The focus of the meeting will be discussion surrounding potential export restrictions. Part of the reason for this could be dryness in southern Russia, especially with winter grain planting finishing soon.
- According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, recent rains in key growing regions of Argentina have not been enough to reverse potential losses in many wheat fields. In the last 24 hours Argentina is said to have received 2-10 millimeters of rain, but as stated by the exchange, 25-30 millimeters were needed. In addition, the exchange is estimating their 24/25 wheat production at 20.5 mmt, but has said they will likely cut that estimate due to dryness.
- According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year on year, since the season began on July 1. As of October 6, their exports have reached 6.35 mmt compared with 8.9 mmt the year prior. The top importers were north African nations, led by Nigeria at 937,000 mt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:


Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production. July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:


Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:


Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.
Other Charts / Weather


