All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	426	1.25
MAR ’25	442.75	1
DEC ’25	455.5	1.75

Soybeans
NOV ’24	1034	-3.75
JAN ’25	1052.5	-3.5
NOV ’25	1080.75	0

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	592.5	2.75
MAR ’25	616.5	3.75
JUL ’25	637.25	4.5

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	603.25	5.25
MAR ’25	620	5.5
JUL ’25	637	5.25

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	644.25	5.75
MAR ’25	665.5	5.5
SEP ’25	684.25	5.25

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5753.25	-46.75

Crude Oil
DEC ’24	76.55	2.87

Gold
DEC ’24	2664.7	-3.1

Grain Market Highlights

With support from the higher wheat market and another reported flash sale to Mexico, the corn market shrugged off overnight lows to close at the top end of its trading range.
Despite strong weekly export inspections numbers, another flash sale to unknown destinations, and strength in soybean oil, soybeans found themselves weighed down by lower soybean meal, which lost nearly 2% in the December contract as it continued lower on recent weakness.
With little fresh news to trade, all three wheat classes closed higher on the day, as support near the 100-day moving average held across all three classes, keeping buyers engaged. Additional war premium may have also been factored in, following reports of a Ukrainian cargo ship being hit by Russian missiles while in port.
To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures finished slightly higher to start the week supported by light buying strength in the wheat market and overnight activity in the export market.
Mexico purchased 155,000 mt (6.1 mb) for corn in an overnight flash sale. Mexico maintains itself as the top buyer of US corn for the 24/25 market year. This was the third published sale of corn posted in October.
Harvest pressure will continue to limit the corn market’s rally potential. Last week, the corn harvest was 21% complete, but expectations are for that number to climb as the weather has been very favorable for harvest progress. The harvest pace will be updated on the USDA Crop Progress report to be released Monday afternoon.
The weekly export inspections for corn were within analysts’ expectations. Last week, the US shipped 933,000 mt (36.7 mb) of corn. Early in the market year, exports totaled 168 mb, up 22% from last year and supportive in the corn market.
Managed money has covered a large portion of its net short position in the corn market. In last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds reduced their net short position to 68,000 contracts, trimming the position by 63,000 contracts as of Oct. 1. Funds were net short 350,000 contracts in early July and have since removed nearly 300,000 of them.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 63,000 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 67,699 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day slightly lower but recovered from earlier morning lows. There has been some pressure lately from an improved Brazilian weather forecast and US harvest pressure, but a flash sale this morning likely added some support. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher with support from higher crude oil.
This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 172,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This may be going to China despite the fact that they have been on their golden week holiday.
Today’s export inspections report was solid for soybeans as they came in above the high end of trade estimates. Inspections for soybeans totaled 52.6 mb for the week ending October 3 and put total inspections for 24/25 at 125 mb, down 1% from the previous year. The USDA estimates soybean exports to be up 9% from the previous year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of October 1, funds bought back 40,092 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 40,092 contracts. In the past three sessions leading up to today, funds are estimated to have sold 3,500 contracts.

Above: Since rallying above the 50-day moving average, the soybean market has largely traded sideways, between 1030 down below, and 1070 up top. A breakout to the downside could be met with support between the 50-day ma (near 1010) and 995. Conversely, a close above 1070, could be met with psychological resistance near 1100, with further resistance around the 200-day ma, currently near 1140.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 40,092 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 34,886 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat posted gains today in all three US classes. The market was aided in part by the US Dollar index taking a breather from the recent strong uptrend. There was not much fresh major news to drive today’s higher trade, which may indicate that speculative buying also played a part.
Weekly wheat inspections at 13.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 316 mb, which is up 35% from last year and running above the USDA’s forecasted pace. Additionally, US 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, which is up 17% from the year prior.
Weather-wise, Argentina has some rain in the forecast that should benefit its wheat crop. Elsewhere, Russia and Ukraine remain too dry overall, though a few showers in eastern Ukraine and western Russia have slightly eased drought conditions. Parts of Europe are also too wet, and Hurricane Kirk is headed that way. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it makes landfall but will still bring heavy rain to parts of France and Germany.
It was reported today that a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian ship in the port of Pivdennyi over the weekend. While this particular vessel was said to be filled with corn, it still may have affected the wheat market as more war premium was factored in.
According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $223 per mt, which would be up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 870,000 mt of grain last week compared to 1.3 mmt the week before. Wheat, in particular accounted for 800,000 mt of the total and compares with 1.29 mmt the prior week.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,516 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 22,953 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell JUL ’25 Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production. July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent rally was capped by resistance around 623. A close back above that level could put the market on track to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Down below, the market may find trendline support near 581, with further support between 571 and 561.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,676 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 15,270 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with trendline support near 610.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 1. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,910 contracts between Sept. 25 – Oct. 1, bringing their total position to a net short 13,754 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather