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10-30 Midday: Soybeans Secure Small Gains at Midday, Corn and Wheat Retreat

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower at midday as the market continues to digest news regarding U.S. – China trade. December corn is trading 5 cents lower at 429-1/4.
  • Corn futures are likely retreating due to the trade deal with China not including corn. While the trade deal with China did not specifically include corn, prospects for future export opportunities have been improved.
  • U.S. ethanol production last week averaged 1.091 million barrels per day — slightly above the year-ago level, but still below the 4.2% year-on-year increase needed through the end of the 2025/26 corn marketing year to meet the USDA’s 5.6 billion bushel corn-for-ethanol usage target.
  • A Bloomberg survey estimates U.S. corn export sales for the week ending October 23 in a range of 1,100k to 2,100k tons, with an average expectation of 1,475k tons. This compares to 2,342k tons during the same week last year.

  • Soybean futures are trading higher at midday following the release of additional details about the U.S. – China trade deal. November soybean futures are trading 2-¼ cents higher at 1082-¾. Soybean futures have traded between a 44-cent range throughout the day, so far.
  • Following the highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, China pledged to expand agricultural trade with the United States, and Trump stated that Beijing would purchase ‘tremendous’ volumes of soybeans.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that China has agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans ‘during this season,’ which he clarified as the period between now and January. He added that China is expected to buy at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually over the next three years.
  • The prospect of substantial Chinese purchases, following months of stalled soybean trade amid the broader U.S. – China trade war, lifted Chicago soybean prices to a 15-month high this week.
  • Wheat futures have slipped lower at midday as attention shifts back to ample global supplies. December Chicago wheat is trading 10-¼ cents lower to 522-¼.
  • The U.S. dollar has risen to retest the highest level it has traded in nearly three months. This has primarily been driven by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at their October Meeting. Strength in the dollar could serve as a headwind for additional strength in the wheat markets.
  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports totaled 6.2 mmt as of October 26 since the marketing year began on July 1, down 21% from 7.9 mmt during the same period last year.
  • A private estimate places China’s 2026/27 wheat production at 141 mmt, with planted area steady at 23.62 million hectares from the previous season. Winter wheat is typically sown between September and November, but this year’s planting pace has been slowed by heavy October rains.

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