10-30 End of Day: Dominated by Choppy Trade, Corn Ends Mixed, with Beans and Wheat Higher
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 411.5 | -2.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 425.5 | -1.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 440.5 | 0.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 976.5 | 11.25 |
| JAN ’25 | 991.25 | 12.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1027.25 | 10 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 573.25 | 2.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 593.5 | 3 |
| JUL ’25 | 611.5 | 4.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 575.75 | 1.5 |
| MAR ’25 | 589.75 | 1.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 609 | 2.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 609 | 2.5 |
| MAR ’25 | 632.75 | 2.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 662 | 3.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 5865 | -6 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| DEC ’24 | 68.66 | 1.45 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’24 | 2799.4 | 18.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Despite the report of fresh export sales and solid ethanol production, the corn market failed to gain traction in today’s session as the December contract consolidated for the third consecutive day between overhead resistance at 415 and 410 support.
- Sharply higher soybean oil, influenced by higher palm and crude oil, along with another flash soybean sale lent support to the soybean market, which reversed yesterday’s losses to close higher.
- The wheat complex ended the day with small gains across the board following choppy trade on both sides of unchanged, despite expectations of much needed moisture in the southern Plains and lower Matif wheat.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 7-day total precipitation and 1 week forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- December corn traded lower, leading the corn market down for the session. Corn futures struggled to gain support despite buying strength in the soybean and wheat markets on Wednesday. Harvest pressure and the pricing of grain supplies limited the potential for price gains in the corn market.
- The corn market has consolidated over the past three sessions within a narrow trading range. Prices are being held in check by resistance at 415 and support near 410 in the December contract. A potential bearish flag formation is developing on the chart; if prices break below this level, a test of the 400 price level could be possible.
- As fresh supplies of harvested corn are moving down the supply chain, the strong basis bid at the Gulf of Mexico has begun to soften, trending lower than last week.
- A possible new streak of export sales started today with an announced flash sale of corn. Unknown destinations purchased 273,048 mt (10.7 mb) of corn for the current marketing year.
- Weekly ethanol production remains strong. For the week ending October 25, it averaged 1.082 million barrels. This was up 0.1% from last week and up 2.9% from last year. Total corn used for ethanol production last week was estimated at 109.17 million bushels, which is ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.
Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher, breaking a 4-day losing streak as First Notice Day approaches tomorrow and crude oil recovers from its recent sell-off. The fundamental picture remains mostly bearish with ongoing harvests and improved Brazilian weather, but flash sales this morning provided support. Soybean meal closed slightly lower, while soybean oil finished higher.
- This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. They also reported a sale totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 24/25. Export demand for grains has been active ahead of the US election.
- This week’s export inspections were strong for soybeans, and estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report are also expected to be impressive at 69.8 million bushels. While slightly below the previous week if realized, this figure demonstrates an overall improvement in export demand.
- In Brazil, soybean exports are expected to reach 4.58 mmt for October. Weather conditions have become significantly more favorable for planting, allowing progress to catch up quickly from earlier delays. Estimates for total production are as high as 169 mmt.
Above: Since mid-October the soybean market has been largely rangebound between 1018 on the topside and 980 down below. A breakout above 1018 could suggest a rally back toward the September highs, with intermediate resistance near the 100-day moving average. Whereas a close below 980 could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three US wheat classes traded on both sides of unchanged but still posted small gains for the day. The US Dollar Index was modestly lower at the grain close, easing pressure on wheat prices, though a lower close across the board for Matif contracts offered no support. Additionally, storms moving across the Midwest and parts of the southern Plains may have limited any upward price movement due to the potential for improved crop conditions.
- SovEcon is reported to have decreased its estimate of Russian 24/25 wheat exports by 1.7 mmt to 45.9 mmt, reportedly due to intervention by Russia’s agriculture ministry. For reference, the USDA currently projects Russian wheat exports at 48 mmt (as of the latest WASDE report).
- According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports declined 33% year over year as of October 25. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 7.26 mmt, compared to 10.9 mmt for the same period last year.
- As reported by Interfax, railway operator Rusagrotrans anticipates that Russia’s October wheat exports will reach 5.9 mmt, setting an October record and surpassing last year’s 5.12 mmt. Additionally, they estimate exports for July through October to also be a record at 20.8 mmt and expect November exports to exceed last year’s levels.
- Daily stochastics for all three wheat classes indicate that their respective December contracts are technically oversold. Furthermore, each shows a potential crossover buy signal in this territory, suggesting that wheat may have found a near-term bottom and could see a larger correction to the upside.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, resistance may be found near 595 – 600.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, considering the early October rally, we advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 640 – 665 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. Now that we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 630 – 655 range to recommend making additional sales. Additionally, given the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 7-day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.