10-29 End of Day: Turnaround Tuesday as Wheat and Corn Close Higher
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 413.75 | 3 |
| MAR ’25 | 427 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 439.75 | 0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 965.25 | -8.75 |
| JAN ’25 | 979 | -7 |
| NOV ’25 | 1017.25 | -4.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 570.5 | 11.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 590.5 | 11 |
| JUL ’25 | 607.25 | 9.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 574.25 | 12.75 |
| MAR ’25 | 588.5 | 13 |
| JUL ’25 | 606.25 | 12.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 606.5 | 11.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 630 | 12 |
| SEP ’25 | 658.75 | 11 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 5878 | 16.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| DEC ’24 | 67.15 | -0.23 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’24 | 2785.4 | 29.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- With help from a higher wheat market and fading harvest pressure, December corn held support at the 50-day moving average and recovered most of Monday’s losses.
- The soybean market continued its slide lower for the third consecutive day as the improved weather and planting pace in South America reduced crop concerns and encouraged sellers.
- The wheat complex reversed course to close higher on the day, surpassing yesterday’s losses, as initial crop ratings for the season came in at the second-lowest level since 1986, well below expectations.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 1-week forecast precipitation for Brazil and N. Argentina, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed any of our past sales recommendations, there may still be good opportunities to make additional sales for this crop. While this time of year doesn’t often provide the best pricing, a rally back toward the 429 – 460 area versus Dec ’24 could provide a solid opportunity to make any catch-up sales. Also, if storage or capital needs are a concern, you could consider selling additional bushels into market strength. We don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when seasonal opportunities tend to improve.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2025 crop. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. If you happened to miss those opportunities and are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength. For now, considering the seasonal weakness of the market around harvest time, we will not be posting any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winte. Although we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to buy upside calls to protect current sales in case the market experiences an extended rally beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Traders used the strength in the wheat market and a faster-than-anticipated corn harvest to push corn futures slightly higher for the session. The market saw light bull spreading, with strength in the December contract versus deferred contracts.
- The USDA reported in Monday’s Crop Progress report that 81% of this year’s corn crop has been harvested. This was 1% above expectations and 17% above the 5-year average, as dry weather has allowed for rapid harvest progress.
- The corn market has been supported by an uptick in demand, with a series of export sales announcements and strong weekly totals. Although the daily run of export sales announcements ended today with no reported sale, the US corn export book at this time is the fourth best in the past decade.
- The rapid improvement in Brazil’s soybean planting pace, due to improved weather, has eased concerns about a delayed start for the key second-crop corn planting. Traders are now more confident the crop will still hit key weather windows.
Above: Since early September, the corn market has found support near the 400 area while posting a low of 397 on September 12, and a high of 434 ¼ on October 2. A close above this range could put the market on course for a larger move, potentially to the June high near 465, while a close below 397 could put it on track to test support near 385.
Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After peaking in early October, the soybean market declined as harvest activity and hedge pressure increased rapidly, driven by warm, dry conditions in the US and improving planting conditions in Brazil. With the harvest now in its final stages, we are entering a period when selling opportunities tend to improve as hedge pressure eases, and South American weather becomes a more dominant factor in their growing season. That said, managed funds hold a relatively small net short position, which creates the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions decline or US demand improves, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if South American conditions improve and US demand remains stagnant, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions.
- Catch-up sales opportunity for the 2024 crop. If you missed the June sales recommendation triggered by the market’s close below 1180, there may still be an opportunity to make a catch-up sale. While we don’t expect the current harvest period to offer the best pricing, a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 could provide a good opportunity. For those with storage or capital needs, consider making these catch-up sales into price strength. If the market rallies further, additional sales can be considered in the 1090 – 1125 range versus Nov ’24. No further sales recommendations are anticipated until seasonal pricing opportunities improve, likely late fall to early spring.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower, as bear spreading pushed front-month contracts lower than deferred months. January futures are now just 5 ½ cents away from their contract low in August, with improved South American weather and planting activity pressuring prices. Soybean meal ended the day lower, while soybean oil was slightly higher.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the soybean harvest is now 89% complete, slightly below the average trade estimate of 91%. This compares to 81% complete last week and the 5-year average of 78%.
- Additional selling pressure today likely came from Brazil’s accelerated planting pace, which has now reached over 36%, up 18% from the previous week. Although drought previously delayed progress, planting is now only 4 points behind the pace at this time last year. The USDA estimates Brazilian production at 169 mmt, while CONAB’s estimate stands at 166 mmt.
- Export demand has been firm ahead of the election, as some countries are likely stocking up before potentially facing tariffs. Yesterday, it was rumored that China purchased between 4 and 6 cargoes of US soybeans and 1 cargo from Brazil for February delivery.
Above: The market reversal on October 24, and subsequent follow through suggests that overhead resistance lies near 1018, and prices may retest support down near 980. A break below this level could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.
Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat recovered today with double-digit gains in all three US classes. Strength stemmed from further consolidation in the US Dollar Index, a higher close for Matif wheat futures, and, perhaps most impactfully, US winter wheat crop ratings that came in below expectations.
- According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat was 80% planted as of October 27, compared with 82% last year, and 84% on average. Additionally, 56% of the crop has emerged, which falls below 61% for both last year and the average. Most importantly, the crop was rated just 38% good to excellent and 23% poor to very poor, reflecting worsening drought conditions in key growing areas. The trade had expected a GTE rating closer to 50%, and the actual figure remains well below last year’s 47% GTE rating.
- According to UkrAgroConsult, Ukraine exported 6.1 mmt of wheat during the July-September timeframe, nearly doubling the amount shipped over the same period last year. Including preliminary data from October, Ukraine has already shipped 50% of their total 24/25 export potential within just four months.
- In a statement by Egypt’s supply minister, Sherif Farouk, a Russian wheat shipment of 430,000 mt will be delayed from October to November; the deal was reached in September. He did not indicate why the shipment was delayed, and no other details were provided. Egypt is attempting to build its wheat stocks amid a struggling economy and a recent foreign currency crisis.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since reaching its recent high in early October, the Chicago wheat market has gradually moved lower as conditions in the Southern Hemisphere improved. While some production concerns in Australia appear to have eased, dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Despite more competitive Russian and Black Sea wheat prices, US export demand remains firm, though these lower prices may still limit US prices. However, any US crop concerns or increased demand could support higher prices. Additionally, the managed funds’ net short position is much smaller than it was in late July, giving them the flexibility to either extend their shorts or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the coming weeks.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Currently, our strategy remains to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales. While this range may seem far off, based on our research, it represents the potential opportunity that this crop year can present as we move into the planting and winter dormancy windows of the next crop cycle. Considering this potential, we also continue to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. In September, we recommended taking advantage of the rally in wheat to make additional sales on your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding July ’25 620 puts—after advising to exit the first half back in July—to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, our Plan A strategy continues to target a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales. Should the market show signs of a potentially extended rally, our Plan B strategy is to protect current sales and target the 745 – 775 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The swift turnaround on October 29 suggests initial support below the market may rest near 558. A close below this level could put the market at risk of trading down toward the 521 – 514 support area, with intermediate support possibly around 544. Overhead, initial resistance may be found near the 50-day moving average, before encountering heavier resistance around 595 – 600.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since peaking in early October, the wheat market has gradually declined, influenced by improved crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Production concerns in Australia have eased somewhat, but dryness remains an issue in the US Plains and the Black Sea region. Although Russian and Black Sea wheat prices are more competitive, US export demand remains steady, though lower global prices could still limit US prices. However, potential issues with the US crop or a rise in demand could push prices higher. Additionally, managed funds’ net positions could now be considered mostly neutral, allowing flexibility to either extend short positions or go long, which could amplify market movements in either direction in the weeks ahead.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current Plan A strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while our Plan B strategies involve targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts if the market turns toward new lows and targeting the 745–770 area to buy upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market’s reversal from the 561 support level could put it on track to test the 593 – 603 resistance area around the 200-day moving average. A break below 561 could find minor support near 555, with major support around the August low of 527.
Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Above: Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (brown).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
After peaking near the 200-day moving average in early October, Minneapolis wheat has been retreating toward its August low. At the same time, managed funds have started rebuilding some of their net short positions. While more competitive Russian export prices continue to limit upward potential, concerns about global wheat supplies persist, potentially increasing opportunities for US exports and driving prices back higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not target any specific areas for additional sales until November or December, when seasonal opportunities tend to improve, we continue to hold the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June for downside protection. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts. Additionally, should the wheat market show signs of an extended rally, we are targeting the 745–770 area in July ’25 KC to buy July ’25 KC upside calls in case the market rallies significantly beyond that point.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal off the 598 – 595 support level suggests prices could rally back and test the 615 – 624 area. To the downside, a close below 595 could set the market up to break further and test the August low of 563.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.