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10-28 Opening Update: Grains Higher Following Yesterday’s Momentum

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher again this morning on optimism over a Chinese trade deal this Thursday. Dec futures came within 1/4 cent of filling the gap from July 3rd. Dec corn is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.31-1/4 while March is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.46-3/4.
  • According to a Bloomberg poll, the corn harvest is estimated to be 73% complete with guesses ranging between 69 and 80%. This would compare to the survey average of 59% last week and 81% a year ago.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that the US inspected 1,188k tons of corn for export as of October 23. This compared to 1,325k last week and 860k tons a year ago at this time. This is up 38.1% year over year. Top destinations were to Mexico, Colombia, and Korean Rep.

Corn Futures Test Resistance: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since broken through resistance at the upper end of their short-term trading range near 424. However, prices were unable to break structural resistance near 430. The 430 level continues to serve as an area of strong technical resistance.

  • Soybean futures are higher again today as trade anticipates a trade deal with China incoming. Prices reached their highest levels since October 2024. November soybeans are up 9-1/2 cents to $10.76-3/4 and March is up 10-3/4 cents to $11.06-1/4. December soybean meal is up $3.90 to $302.10 and Dec bean oil is down 0.39 cents to 50.39 cents.
  • Surveys estimate that 84% of the soybean crop is now harvested with guesses ranging between 80 and 88%. This would compare to 74% at this time a week ago and 89% a year ago.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1,061k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 1,590k last week and 2,631k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Italy.

Soybeans Break Higher: Soybean futures have continued to move higher as the market takes an optimistic stance regarding trade tensions with China. Soybean prices gapped higher and closed near the upper end of their trading range from the past year. Strong psychological resistance should be expected as they approach 1100, with support at the gap, near 1063.

  • Wheat is higher this morning as funds exit short positions as they expect stronger export sales to come. December Chicago wheat is up 5-1/4 cents to $5.31-1/4, KC is up 4-1/2 to $5.19, and Minn is up 4-1/2 cents to $5.64-3/4.
  • Estimates see winter wheat plantings at 85% complete with a range of 81 to 89%. This would compare to last week’s progress of 76%. Crop conditions are estimated at 50% good to excellent with a range of 44-55%, and this would compare to 38% last year at this time.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections saw wheat at 259k tons which compared to 493k last week and 295k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to Korean Rep, Vietnam, and Japan.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Higher: Wheat futures broke through key technical resistance at the 50-day moving average in a strong fashion. Prices tested resistance at the 100-day moving average, but were unable to close above it. Support lies below at the 50-day moving average, near 517. The 100-day moving average continues to serve as resistance, near 528.

KC Wheat Continues Higher, Approaches Resistance: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Prices have since managed to break through technical resistance at the 50-day moving average but were unsuccessful at breaking through the 100-day. The 50-day moving average will now serve as technical support, near 505. The 100-day moving average serves as technical resistance, near 518.

Spring Wheat Builds Momentum, Tests Resistance: Spring wheat futures found support near 545 and reversed higher with enough momentum to begin retesting resistance at the 50-day moving average, near 567. A second point of resistance can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 587. Support lies below at 545.

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