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10-23 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s gains and are now trading at the very top of the recent trading range. December futures are up 1-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/2 and March is up 2 cents to $4.37-3/4.
  • U.S. corn harvest is estimated to be 60%–70% complete, though rains this week may slow progress. Basis levels around the country remain firm for harvest time, an encouraging sign of underlying demand.
  • Bloomberg estimates for the export sales report for the week ending October 16 that is postponed see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons which would compare to 4,184k tons a year ago.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures rebounded from the 410 level, a key area of structural support. Prices have since risen and started to consolidate under structural resistance near 424. Should prices break above, and with both the 50 and 100-day moving averages now acting as technical support, the next point of technical resistance lies near 430.

  • Soybean futures are higher this morning following mixed prices yesterday where front months were higher and deferred lower. November soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents to $10.38-1/2 and March is up 5-1/4 cents to $10.68-1/4. December soybean meal is down $0.70 to $289.30 and December bean oil is up 0.67 cents to 50.74 cents.
  • President Trump said he expects to reach a deal with China during the meeting with Xi on trade, soybeans, and potentially nuclear arms. This comes after a lot of waffling back and forth this week on whether or not a meeting would take place.
  • Bloomberg estimates for the postponed export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,200k tons. This would compare to 2,088k last year.

Soybeans Retest Overhead Resistance: Soybean futures found strength following dovish rhetoric regarding the current trade situation with China. Prices broke through strong technical resistance found in a band of major moving averages to retest the mid-September high. The next point of resistance can be found near 1062.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-1/2 cents to $5.05-1/4, KC wheat is up 3-1/4 cents to $4.91-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1-3/4 cents to $5.49-1/2.
  • It has been difficult to find supportive news for the wheat complex, but competitively priced U.S. offerings have kept export inspections running 20% ahead of last year’s pace as of Monday’s data.
  • Bloomberg estimates see export sales for wheat for the week ending October 16 between 350k and 750k tons with an average guess of 563k tons. This would compare to 533k a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Finds Support: Wheat futures found support soon after breaking below the 502 level and have since started to trend slightly higher. With support established near 491, the first point of technical resistance is near 517 at the 50-day moving average.

KC Wheat Reverses, Begins Trending Higher: KC wheat has trended higher following a strong daily reversal on October 14. Structural support lies below, near 477. The first point of technical resistance can be found at the 50-day moving average, near 506.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 569 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found at the 100-day moving average, near 589. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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