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10-20 Opening Update: Soybeans Surge Higher, Corn and Wheat Trade Quietly

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn futures are unchanged to slightly higher but are still above the 100-day moving average. December is unchanged at $4.22-1/2 while March is up 1/2 cent to $4.37.
  • In Brazil, corn prices are moving higher on the spot market as producers are focused on the 25/26 planting season and are less focused on closing deals. Values at ports have remained firm.
  • While the Commitment of Traders report is indefinitely delayed due to the shutdown, it is estimated that funds were buyers of 25,500 contracts of corn over the past 5 trading days. Funds are estimated to be short around 70,000 contracts.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

  • Soybean futures are sharply higher to start the day on hope for a China deal. November soybeans are up 9-1/2 cents to $10.29 while March is up 10 cents to $10.60-3/4. December soybean meal is up $4.30 to $285.30 and December soybean oil is down 0.12 cents to 51.01 cents.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last Friday that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier to avoid an escalation of US tariffs on Chinese goods. President Trump is also expected to meet with President Xi within two weeks.
  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 17,500 contracts of soybeans which may have brought them back to a small net long position. They were likely buyers of both soybean meal and oil.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • Wheat is trading quietly lower with December wheat down 1/4 cent to $5.03-1/2, Dec KC wheat down 1/2 cent to $4.91, and Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent to $5.48-1/2.
  • In Australia, projections for the wheat crop continue to improve as harvest begins. Analysts have raised their estimates according to a Reuters poll due to better than expected yields. Estimates call for around 35.7 mmt of wheat produced or more.
  • Over the past 5 trading days funds are estimated to have bought back 4,500 contracts of what which would leave them with a net short position of approximately 90,000 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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