10-2 End of Day: Wheat Supports Corn, as Beans Flounder
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 432.5 | 3.5 |
| MAR ’25 | 450 | 3.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 458.25 | 0.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1056 | -1.25 |
| JAN ’25 | 1074.25 | -1.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1096.25 | 0.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 615.25 | 16.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 637.25 | 17.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 654.75 | 17.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 619.25 | 21 |
| MAR ’25 | 634.25 | 20.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 650 | 20.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 649 | 14.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 670 | 13.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 688.25 | 12.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 5759 | -0.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| DEC ’24 | 69.85 | 0.46 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’24 | 2674.2 | -16.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- With support from a strong wheat market, the corn market kept its rally intact for the fourth consecutive day, as it printed fresh daily highs and settled with the highest close in the December contract since late June.
- The soybean market closed mixed with relatively minor losses in the front months after rallying off lows set just before the morning pause. Forecasts for rain in Argentina and Brazil weighed heavily on soybean meal and soybeans early, while sharply higher palm oil and stronger crude oil supported bean oil.
- The wheat complex posted its third consecutive day of higher closes across the board, with today’s front month closing prices the highest since early to mid-June. Buyers remain active with continued crop concerns and geopolitical uncertainty as war premium likely gets factored into prices.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 2-week percent of normal precipitation forecast for South America, courtesy of NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June, we recommended purchasing Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, due to their relative value and the typically high market volatility during that time of year. Although we no longer have an upside objective for additional sales for now, we continue to target a value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting at this level will allow you to lock in gains that offset much of the original position’s cost, while holding the remaining 510 calls at or near a net-neutral cost. This strategy should continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence for further sales during an extended rally. Since harvest time is not an advantageous sales window, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures stayed on their upward path as prices followed strong buying in the wheat market to close December corn at its highest price levels since June.
- The USDA will release its next Crop Production report on Friday, October 11. Before that time, we will see private analysts posting potential corn yield projections. One private analyst group in their producer survey raised the corn yield to 184 bushels per acre as their producers highlight strong yields at harvest this fall. This will likely be a trend as projections come in before the report.
- Weekly ethanol production recovered to 1.015 million barrels per day last week. A total of 102 million bushels was estimated to be used for ethanol production last week. Although this total is behind the pace to reach USDA corn usage targets, it is early in the marketing year.
- The corn market will be watching to see if corn export sales rebound after last week’s disappointing total. Last week, US exporters sold 535,056 bushels of corn, which was below the range of expectation. Expectations for new sales range from 600,000 – 1.0 mmt in Thursday morning’s export sales report.
- The US Dollar Index has turned the corner higher and is trading at its highest point in weeks. The stronger dollar plus the rally in corn prices could price US bushels out of the export market versus cheaper global competition.
Above: With December corn showing upward momentum, a close above the 200-day moving average could set the market on course to test the June high around 465. Below the market initial support remains between 416 and 420 with further support near 401 – 397.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. While we don’t currently have a target range for additional sales, because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous prices, we will begin evaluating market conditions once it concludes and will target areas for additional sales recommendations in late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day mixed, with front-month contracts slightly lower and deferred contracts closing either unchanged or slightly higher. They traded within a relatively wide range again today, rallying off early morning lows. Soybean meal traded significantly lower throughout the day, while soybean oil closed higher.
- Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its updated estimates for soybean yields and production. The yield estimate was raised slightly to 53.5 bpa, compared to the USDA’s previous estimate of 53.1 bpa. Iowa’s yield was pegged at 64.5 bpa, Illinois at 67 bpa, and Indiana at 62 bpa.
- Forecasts for South America predict significant rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 15 days. While scattered showers have fallen intermittently, the extremely dry central region is expected to receive over an inch of rain, with southern regions likely to get even more.
- With dockworkers at ports from Maine to Texas now on strike, exports of agricultural products could be affected. While soybeans and soybean meal are typically shipped from the West Coast, rerouting other trade through western ports may cause bottlenecks, potentially impacting soybean exports negatively.
Above: November soybeans’ strong close above 1031 ¼ resistance suggests that prices could run toward the late July high between 1080 – 1085. Above there, further resistance could be met near the 100-day moving average. If prices retreat, initial support may be found near 1030, with further downside support between the 50-day moving average and 995.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat had a banner day with double-digit gains in all three futures classes, and Kansas City contracts led the way higher with gains of over 20 cents. This may have been driven by another sharply higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, as well as additional war premium and uncertainty continuing to be factored into the marketplace.
- Declining estimates of the Australian wheat crop have been bullish to the market. While the USDA raised their forecast last month to 32 mmt, some private estimates are now in the range of 27-30 mmt. Frost damage and dryness are the causes for the declines, with some estimating that Australia may have lost 1 mmt of wheat in key growing regions.
- GASC, Egypt’s state grain purchasing authority, is said to have bought 3.1 mmt of wheat, which is believed to be sourced from Russia. News outlets are reporting that 510,000 mt will be shipped from the Black Sea each month until the deal is fulfilled.
- According to Russia’s weather bureau, some wheat producing regions are in worse shape than usual due to a recent lack of rainfall. Additionally, Russia’s grain export union is requesting for a reduction of grain exports, with wheat making up the majority of Q1 shipments for the 24/25 marketing year. SovEcon is also reported to have reduced their Russian wheat export estimate by 0.5 mmt to 47.6 mmt; for reference the USDA is using a 48 mmt figure.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: With the December wheat close above 600, the market is poised to test the 640 – 645 resistance area. Should prices turn back lower, support could be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, around 585. Below that, further support could be found near the 50-day moving average.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell JUL ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 675 – 700 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 HRW wheat production. July ’25 KC wheat is now about 100 cents off the August low, which represents nearly a 50% retracement back towards last spring’s highs. Considering the extent of this rally and that there may be considerable resistance overhead, we suggest taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on a portion of your anticipated 2025 hard red winter wheat crop, using either July ’25 KC wheat futures, or a July ’25 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: With the close above 604 ¼, and the 100 and 200-day moving averages, December KC wheat could be on track to run towards 637. Down below the market, if prices turn lower, initial support may be found near the 100 and 200-day moving averages, and again between the 50-day ma, and 561.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. While we are at the time of year when market lows often occur, we will consider posting upside targets in late September or early October when market conditions often become more advantageous, and harvest is mostly behind us.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The recent breakout above 637 puts the market on track for a potential run towards 685, with initial resistance near the 200-day moving average. To the downside, a break below the 100-day ma could put the market at risk of trading to the 50-day ma, near 600.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Above: Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.