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10-17 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Heading Into Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning as harvest hits around the halfway mark . December futures are up 2-1/2 cents to $4.24-1/4 and are up 11 cents on the week. March corn is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.38.
  • Although with the government shutdown, USDA export sales are delayed indefinitely, estimates have still been released. Corn export sales as of October 9 are forecast to come in between 1,200k and 2,000k tons with an average estimate of 1,450k tons which would compare to 2,226k a year ago.
  • Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

  • Soybean futures are higher to start the day with November up 4-1/4 cents to $10.15 and is up 8-1/2 cents on the week. March soybeans are up 4-1/4 cents to $10.48, December soybean meal is up $2.90 to $279.80 and December bean oil is down 0.35 cents to 50.50 cents.
  • Estimates for the export sales report ending the week of October 9 see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 1,400k tons with an average estimate of 975k tons. This would compare to 1,703k a year ago.
  • The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging given Chinese absence.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

  • All three wheat classes are higher this morning with December Chicago wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $5.04-1/4, KC wheat is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.90, and Minn wheat is up 2-3/4 cents to $5.52-1/4.
  • Estimates for wheat export sales ending the week of October 9 see sales between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 538k tons. This would compare to 504k tons a year ago.
  • Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

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