10-17 End of Day: Markets Recover Earlier Losses to Close Mostly Higher Across the Board
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| DEC ’24 | 406.75 | 2 |
| MAR ’25 | 421.25 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 437.5 | -1 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 988.75 | 8.75 |
| JAN ’25 | 998 | 4 |
| NOV ’25 | 1031 | 1.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 589.5 | 4.5 |
| MAR ’25 | 609.5 | 4.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 625.5 | 4.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 596 | 7.25 |
| MAR ’25 | 610 | 6.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 626 | 5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| DEC ’24 | 628.75 | 8 |
| MAR ’25 | 650 | 7.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 669.5 | 6 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| DEC ’24 | 5889.5 | 2.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| DEC ’24 | 70.04 | 0.22 |
| Gold | ||
| DEC ’24 | 2705.7 | 14.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- After holding support near the key 400 level (December), the corn market likely benefited from technical buying and short covering due to oversold conditions, closing well off its lows with the December contract leading the rebound.
- Boosted by bullish turnarounds in both soybean meal and oil, along with bull spreading from the November contract, soybean prices rebounded to close higher after hitting a fresh 2-month low. Bean oil settled just below its highs, rallying 117 points from its daily low with moving average support just beneath the market. Soybean meal also recovered from earlier lows, extending gains from yesterday’s firm close.
- Like the corn and soybean markets, the wheat complex rebounded from earlier session lows, finding support once again near key moving averages, along with additional support from higher Matif wheat prices.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, US Drought Monitor, and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market finished mixed to slightly higher in the front end of the market as December corn prices saw a small bounce after holding the key 400 support level. Strength in the wheat and soybean markets likely triggered some technical buying and short cover going into the end of the week. So far, going into Friday, December corn is 9 cents lower on the week.
- The 400 level on Dec corn has seemed to trigger some export demand. The USDA announced large purchases yesterday, and today posted two new export sales. Mexico added 197,180 mt (7.6 mb) and Unknown destinations added 101,000 mt (4.1 mb) in US export sales for the current marketing year.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning, delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 1.2 – 2.2 mmt. Last week, export sales were 1.222 mmt.
- Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, in line with analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production, keeping the pace needed to meet USDA usage targets by the end of the marketing year.
- Corn harvest will likely continue to move along at a steady pace as weather conditions remain favorable. The addition of new bushels in the pipeline will limit upside price potential in the corn market.
Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher after trading lower throughout most of the morning. When soybeans began to recover around midday, they were led higher by the November contract while the deferred contracts trailed behind. This narrowed the spread and could be pointing to traders rolling out of their November short positions for later months. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.
- On Friday’s CFTC report, funds had reportedly slimmed down their net short position to just 21,000 contracts as of October 8. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold an additional 30,000 contracts which would leave them net short nearly 50,000 contracts at this point. When soybeans reached their lows in August, funds held a net short position of just over 175,000 contracts. If fundamentals continue to be bearish with a strong US harvest and good Brazilian weather, funds have the potential to take prices significantly lower.
- In China, the soybean harvest in the major producing area of Heihe is nearly finished and is expected to see a bumper harvest. While China has been a buyer of US soybeans recently, this could impact future business to a small degree. China remains reliant on Brazil and then the US for soybean imports.
- In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.
Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat reversed from early losses to close mostly higher across all three classes. Once again, Matif wheat futures appeared to lead the US market, gaining another 1.25 to 2.50 euros per metric ton by today’s settlement. The grain complex as a whole also recovered, with higher closes across the board, including soybean products and oats. From a technical standpoint, most of these markets were at or near oversold levels, and wheat in particular bounced off support near the 40 and 50-day moving averages (as it did yesterday).
- Drought conditions in US wheat-growing regions continue to worsen. According to the USDA, as of October 15, an estimated 52% of winter wheat acres are experiencing drought, up from 47% the previous week. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas increased from 29% to 32% during the same period. However, rains are forecasted for the US Southern Plains by this weekend, which should help replenish soil moisture in key winter wheat-growing regions.
- SovEcon reportedly reduced its Russian wheat production forecast to 81.5 mmt, down 1.4 mmt from the previous estimate. If accurate, this would mark the smallest harvest in four years. In related news, Russia will reportedly allow Kazakhstan to transport grain through Russia to other importers, though Russia itself will not permit imports.
- French soft wheat exports for the 24/25 season have been reduced to 10.025 mmt from 10.100 mmt previously, according to FranceAgriMer. The decline is said to be tied to a 61% drop in sales outside of the EU. Additionally, the estimated stockpiles were reduced from 2.75 to 2.50 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The recent break below the 100-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.
Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.