All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	404.75	3.5
MAR ’25	420.5	3
DEC ’25	438.5	1.5

Soybeans
NOV ’24	980	-11
JAN ’25	994	-9.5
NOV ’25	1029.25	-6.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	585	5.5
MAR ’25	605.25	4.5
JUL ’25	621	4.5

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	588.75	5.75
MAR ’25	603.5	4.75
JUL ’25	621	4

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	620.75	4.5
MAR ’25	642.75	4.75
SEP ’25	663.5	1.75

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5889.5	26.75

Crude Oil
DEC ’24	69.75	-0.26

Gold
DEC ’24	2691.6	12.7

Grain Market Highlights

A higher wheat market and two flash sales—one sizable, though anticipated, to Mexico and the other to unknown destinations—lent support to the corn market, which held the key 400 support level and closed higher amid the fast harvest pace.
A quick harvest pace and improving planting conditions in Brazil continue to weigh heavily on the soybean market, which has closed lower in eight of the last 10 sessions as funds reestablish short positions. Selling in soybean oil, which also ended the day lower, added to the weakness, while meal consolidated from its recent selloff, and closed firm with minor gains.
All three classes of wheat closed with modest gains after holding support above key moving averages, as Matif wheat lent additional support with its higher daily close.
To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the South American 1-week forecast total precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since hitting a peak in early October, corn prices have fallen off as harvest continues at a rapid pace with record yields according to the USDA, and South American weather has turned more seasonal. Now that managed funds have covered most of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or deterioration in South American growing conditions could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields remain strong and South American weather turns more favorable, prices could be at risk of retreating.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market into harvest, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally. Until we post new sales targets, if you are looking to make additional early sales for next year, you could consider targeting the 455 – 475 area versus Dec ’25 to take advantage of any post-harvest strength.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market ended its four-day selling streak as prices held the key 400 level in the December futures and back tested resistance during the session. A large export purchase, and a firm wheat market helped support corn futures.
The USDA announced two flash sales of corn this morning. Mexico purchased 1.623 mmt (66.9 mb) of corn split between the current and the next marketing year; 1,043 mmt (41.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 579,120 mt (22.8 mb) for the 25/26 marketing year. In addition, unknown destinations purchased 332,000 mt (13.1 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. The large Mexico purchase was anticipated as Mexico seasonally makes a large purchase in this window, which limited any price gains.
US corn harvest continues to move a long rapidly. On Tuesday’s Crop Progress report, the USDA stated that corn harvest was 47% complete, up 17% from last week and 8% above 5-year average. Harvest pressure and a large crop forecast will continue to limit prices in the corn market.
Brazil Ag Agency, CONAB, released its forecast for the 24/25 corn crop on Tuesday. CONAB expects corn production to increase to 119.74 mmt, up 4 mmt (3.5%) from last year’s totals despite a slightly lower planted area forecast.

Above: The recent decline in prices from the early October high has been met with support near the psychologically significant 400 area. If this area holds and prices turn higher, the rally may be met with resistance around 415, with more significant resistance towards 428 – 434. Otherwise, a breach of 400 and close below 397 could signal a further decline with support near 385, and again around 372.

Above: Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After hitting a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market rose steadily, reaching its peak in early October, driven by drier conditions in the US during the later stages of crop development and continued dryness in key soybean-growing regions of South America. During this time, managed funds covered over 80% of their significant short positions, creating the potential for volatility in either direction. Prices could rise if South American conditions worsen, encouraging further fund buying, or decline if conditions improve, prompting funds to potentially rebuild short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and the market begins to price in any potential South American weather premium.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower for the fifth consecutive day as funds continue to pressure markets as a result of improved South American weather. Both the November and January contracts are now below $10.00 and are technically oversold. November soybeans have lost over 85 cents from their high at the beginning of the month. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher while soybean oil was lower.
This morning, the USDA reported a private export sale of 175,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. While this followed yesterday’s flash sale to China of 131,000 metric tons, it has not been enough to support futures.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that the soybean crop is now 67% harvested. This was ahead of the average trade guess of 64%. The harvested number is also above last year’s pace of 57% and the 5-year average of 51%. Dry weather has enabled producers to accelerate harvest.
In Brazil, rain has fallen steadily over the past 7 days with more in the upcoming forecast. The central regions which contain the primary soybean producing states had previously been very dry but have gotten over 1 inch in most areas.

Above: The recent downtrend appears to have found support near 980 in the November contract, and with the market showing signs of being oversold, prices could rebound toward recent highs near 1070. Before that, prices may encounter resistance around 1025. If prices break the 980 support level, they could find additional support near 955 and again around 940.

Above: Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat gained roughly 3–5 cents across all three US classes today. As has been the case recently, US wheat may have followed Matif contracts, which rose 0.50 to 1.50 euros per mt in today’s session. The rally could also be attributed to a bounce off technical support levels, as December contracts in all three classes tested support near their 40 and 50-day moving averages before recovering.
As of October 13, 64% of the US winter wheat crop is planted, according to the USDA. This is slightly behind last year’s pace of 65% and the 5-year average of 66%. Additionally, 35% of the crop has emerged, also trailing last year’s 36% and the average pace of 38%.
Russia’s grain exporters union has set a consensus indicator price of $240 per mt FOB for wheat exports in October, increasing to $245 in November and $250 in December. In theory, exporters should not sell below these levels, but it remains unclear whether they will adhere to these restrictions.
The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports are down 29% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports have reached 6.64 mmt, compared to 9.3 mmt during the same period last year. Nigeria, the top importer, took 991,000 mt, followed by other North African countries, including Egypt and Morocco.
The Indian government, through its farm ministry, has raised the minimum purchase price for domestic wheat for the 24/25 season to 2,425 rupees per 100 kg, up from 2,275 rupees last year. The reported cost of production is 1,182 rupees. The minimum prices for other crops, including rapeseed, lentils, and barley, have also been increased.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine, and dryness in the US plains. The nearly 100-cent rally from the August low to October high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While cheaper Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through early October also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although more competitive Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The December contract’s break below 592 suggests that prices could decline further toward 561, with initial support likely around the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. On the upside, initial resistance is expected near 592, with stronger resistance around 623.

Above: Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded up to its 200-day moving average and its highest level since mid-July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 75% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While more competitive export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break below the 200-day moving average suggests that prices could drift further toward the 604 support area, with additional support near the 50-day moving average before reaching that level. If prices turn higher, overhead resistance may be around 632, with stronger resistance near 655.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather