The corn market is trading towards the bottom of its current 5-cent range in the December contract as it continues to digest higher production estimates than were expected in Friday’s USDA WASDE report.
On Friday the USDA updated its supply and demand numbers for the 24/25 marketing year. Yield was raised slightly to 183.8 bpa, which put production above trade estimates at 15.203 billion bushels. While 24/25 ending stocks were lower than the September projection, they too were above the average trade guess at 1.999 billion bushels.
The CFTC also issued its Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon, showing that Managed funds covered another 44,000 contracts of their net short positions in the corn futures market. This brought the Managed funds’ net short position to a minimal 23,729 contracts.
Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.
November soybeans are trading a little lower, though in the middle of their trading range, caught between a rebound in soybean meal, which is currently trading higher and at the top end of its range, and lower bean oil, which is trading at its lows following weaker crude oil.
Soybean planting has reached 9.3% complete in Brazil, according to consulting firm Patria Agronegocios, versus 17.4% complete at the same time last year. While the current planting pace is behind, it is expected to pick up now that the country’s rainy season has arrived.
Friday’s WASDE report was largely unchanged from September’s projections and contained no surprises for the trade. Yield and production were left nearly unchanged at 53.1 bpa and 4.582 billion bushels, while ending stocks were also unchanged from September at 550 million bushels.
Updated Commitment of Traders data released Friday showed Managed funds covering another 13,088 soybean futures contracts, bringing total net short positions in the soybean market to 21,798.
The wheat complex is trading lower across all three futures classes as sellers remain active following Friday’s weak trade, as rains are expected to move through HRW regions later this week.
In Friday’s updated WASDE report, the USDA only made minor changes to the US balance sheet, lowering it to 812 million bushels, where the trade expected 819 mb. The World balance sheet for wheat increased to 257.72 million metric tons, where the trade expected a reduction to 256.14 mmt.
Friday’s COT update showed that Managed funds sold just under 6,500 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which brought their total net short position in Chicago wheat to 29,449 contracts.
According to a Reuters report, Russia is setting a floor of $250 per metric ton on exported wheat to international buyers. This appears to be an effort to slow export sales as the nation deals with lower production forecasts. To that point, SovEcon lowered its projection of Russian wheat production for the 2024 season to 81.5 mmt, from 82.9 mmt.
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