All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	408.25	-7.5
MAR ’25	424.75	-8.25
DEC ’25	442.5	-7.5

Soybeans
NOV ’24	996	-9.5
JAN ’25	1011.5	-9.5
NOV ’25	1047	-8.75

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	585.25	-13.75
MAR ’25	607.25	-14.5
JUL ’25	624.75	-14.75

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	590	-14.5
MAR ’25	606	-15.25
JUL ’25	624.5	-14.5

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	626.5	-17.25
MAR ’25	647.75	-16.75
SEP ’25	669.5	-16

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5906.75	47

Crude Oil
DEC ’24	73.32	-1.53

Gold
DEC ’24	2666.8	-9.5

Grain Market Highlights

Sellers maintained control in the corn market to start the week, encouraged by sharp losses in the wheat market and clear weather conditions to maintain a healthy harvest pace.
Sharply lower soybean oil prices and an improved South American weather outlook weighed heavily on the soybean market, which closed at the bottom of the day’s 13-cent range in the November contract. Soybean meal on the other hand settled mid-range and near unchanged following a day of choppy two-sided trade.
A lack of fresh supportive news, combined with weakness across the commodity sector—including Matif wheat and crude oil—along with a firm US dollar, weighed heavily on the wheat complex, which closed with double-digit losses, just off their respective lows for all three US classes.
To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks as well as the South American 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

With little fresh news to push prices higher, the corn market began the week with sellers in control, led by weakness in the wheat market, and good harvest weather that helps keep harvest pressure in place.
FranceAgriMer data indicated that the French corn harvest is only 6% complete as of October 7, due to wet conditions. This is the slowest pace in 11 years and compares to 50% completed last year.
Crop analyst APK-Inform, lowered its corn export forecast for Ukraine by 11%, dropping it from 22.5 million metric tons to 20 mmt, largely due to lower production.
With the US currently being the cheapest source of corn on the global market, production and export losses in regions like Ukraine and France could shift some demand to the US, potentially supporting US corn prices.
Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace this week as midwestern weather forecasts remain mostly dry. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market. The USDA will release its updated crop progress report Tuesday afternoon with government offices closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Above: Since the beginning of October, the near-term trend has been down. Initial support may come in near 410, with further support near the 50-day moving average and again around 397-400. On the top side, initial resistance may come in near 428, with heavier resistance near the recent high of 434 ¼.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 43,970 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 23,729 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans continued with the momentum from Friday’s WASDE report and closed lower today with the November contract closing below 1000 for the first time in one month. Pressure has come from the ongoing US harvest and improved South American weather that is allowing planting to move at a better pace. Soybean meal closed higher today while soybean oil fell sharply.
In Brazil, the 15-day forecast shows strong probabilities of rain totaling over 2 inches in the central regions, including Mato Grosso, the largest producing state and one of the driest until recent rainfall. Friday’s WASDE report kept Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 169 mmt.
Since Brazil was previously too dry to begin planting, they are now behind at only 9.3% complete which compares to the pace of 17.4% at this time last year. If growing conditions remain favorable in South America following the US harvest, funds could be in a position to aggressively sell soybeans again now that they have pared down their net short position.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought 13,088 contracts of soybeans, leaving them net short 21,798 contracts. Over the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 11,000 contracts and likely have sold more today.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 13,088 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 21,798 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed the session with double-digit losses across all three US classes. Pressure came from a lower close for Matif wheat, weakness in corn and soybeans, a lack of fresh supportive news, and a rise in the US Dollar Index. Additionally, OPEC reportedly lowered its global crude oil usage estimate for 2024 and 2025. This marks the third reduction in as many months and may have added pressure to the grain complex.
From a technical perspective, December Chicago wheat closed below the 21-day moving average (587 ¾) for the first time since the end of August. Breaking this support level may trigger further liquidation, with the next support around 572, right between the 40- and 50-day moving averages.
Over the weekend, reports emerged of a new Russian missile attack on Ukraine. Two civilian vessels and a grain storage facility were damaged in the Odessa area, resulting in at least one death and several injuries. Despite this, the market showed little concern, as indicated by wheat’s lower close.
SovEcon reported that Russia shipped 1.1 mmt of grain last week, with wheat making up 1 mmt of that total. Additionally, IKAR noted that Russia’s wheat export price closed at $230 per metric ton FOB, up $7 from the previous week. In related news, Russia’s agriculture ministry announced a new minimum price floor for wheat exports, set at $250 per metric ton.
Industry analyst APK-Inform has reportedly decreased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports from 39.1 to 37.2 mmt. However, this pertains mostly to expected declines in the corn harvest. They actually raised the 2024 wheat harvest production to 21.5 mmt, compared to 21.2 mmt previously. Furthermore, they increased their estimate of wheat exports from 13.8 to 14.4 mmt.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,496 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 29,449 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,386 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 5,884 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,093 contracts between October 1 – 8, bringing their total position to a net short 7,661 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil and N. Argentina 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 1-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather