All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
DEC ’24	415.75	-2.75
MAR ’25	433	-3.25
DEC ’25	450	-1.5

Soybeans
NOV ’24	1005.5	-9.25
JAN ’25	1021	-10.5
NOV ’25	1055.75	-10.5

Chicago Wheat
DEC ’24	599	-4.75
MAR ’25	621.75	-4.75
JUL ’25	639.5	-4.75

K.C. Wheat
DEC ’24	604.5	-6.5
MAR ’25	621.25	-6.5
JUL ’25	639	-5.5

Mpls Wheat
DEC ’24	643.75	-6.5
MAR ’25	664.5	-6.5
SEP ’25	685.5	-3

S&P 500
DEC ’24	5859.75	30.75

Crude Oil
DEC ’24	74.79	-0.32

Gold
DEC ’24	2673.8	34.5

Grain Market Highlights

Corn futures fell lower on Friday after the USDA increased the US corn yield slightly to come in at 183.8, a slight yield cut was expected by the trade going into the report. Corn ending stocks came in just below the psychological 2-billion-bushel level but above pre-report estimates.
Following a neutral WASDE report, soybean futures slipped lower to end the week. US soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from last month’s estimate but better rain chances in Brazil applied pressure to the soybean market throughout the week.
US weather is forecast to remain mostly favorable to continued strong harvest progress over the next week with above normal temperatures and normal to below normal chances for precipitation.
After a strong week, wheat futures pulled back on Friday after a mostly neutral USDA WASDE report. Weakness in corn and soybean futures as well as an unexpected increase in World wheat ending stocks pressured wheat to end the week.
To see the updated US 7-day moisture outlook as well as the Brazil and northern Argentina 2 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since printing a market low in late August, the corn market has rallied largely on fund short covering as the rush of old crop bushels into the market has slowed, US demand has picked up, and South American weather has been dry. While the harvest of an expectedly large crop could limit upside potential, it is a good sign that corn buyers have found value at these multi-year low price levels. Now that managed funds have covered a significant portion of their record short positions, they have flexibility to establish net long or net short positions. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated US supply or continued South American dryness could trigger managed funds to continue buying and rally prices further. However, if harvest yields are strong and South American weather turns more seasonal, prices could be at risk of retreating from recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Considering harvest time doesn’t typically offer the most advantageous sales prices, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until late fall at the earliest, or possibly as late as early spring when opportunities tend to improve. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider targeting a rally back to the 429 – 460 range versus Dec ’24 to make any necessary sales.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

A higher-than-expected corn yield and ending stocks total on Friday’s USDA report limited corn futures on the session. For the week, Dec corn futures lost 9 cents as the market will now stay focused on harvest progress and the South American weather forecast in the weeks ahead.
The USDA Crop Production report showed a slight increase in corn yield for this fall to 183.8 Bu/A, up 0.2 of a bushel from last month. Most of the strength in the yield came from the central and western corn belt, offsetting the dry conditions in the eastern corn belt. This put total production at 15.203 billion bushels, up slightly from last month
On the demand side of the table, the USDA raise 2024-25 corn exports by 25 mb from their September forecast. The combination of yield and higher demand, and the lower-than-expected grain stock lowered carryout to 1.999 billion bushels. This was 37 mb above the market expectation and weighed on prices.
The USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Unknown destinations purchased 577,928 MT (22.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. Expectations this was a sale to Mexico, who typically steps into the U.S. corn market more heavily during the harvest window to secure supplies.
Harvest will likely stay at a strong pace through the weekend as midwestern weather forecasts remain dry into next week. Harvest was 30% complete last week, but that is expected to jump as producers are finishing soybean harvest and move over to corn. Hedging pressure will likely limit prices in the corn market.

Above: The recent close above the 200-day moving average was met with resistance near 434 and prices retreated. Support below the market could come in between 420 and 416, near the 100-day ma. Below there, further support could be found between 410 and 400.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

After posting what appears to be a seasonal low in mid-August, the soybean market has gradually moved higher as growing conditions in the US became drier during the later stages of crop development and have remained dry in key soybean-growing areas of South America. During this time, managed funds have covered large portions of their sizable, short positions, setting the stage for potential volatility in either direction. Higher prices might occur if conditions deteriorate further, prompting more fund buying, or a downside break in prices could happen if conditions improve, leading funds to potentially reestablish short positions. Seasonally, once harvest is complete, prices tend to firm as hedge pressure subsides and a South American weather premium tends to build.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. In early June, when our Plan B strategy was triggered by the market’s close below 1180, we recommended making sales at that time due to the potential change in trend signaled by that weak close. Because harvest time typically does not present the most advantageous pricing opportunities, we don’t anticipate making any sales recommendations until seasonal opportunities improve, potentially as early as late fall or as late as early spring. For those who need to sell bushels due to space constraints or to raise capital, consider selling into price strength and targeting a rally back to the 1050 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 to make any necessary sales. Should the market rally beyond there, consider additional sales in the 1090 – 1125 area versus Nov ’24.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

With the exception of the November contract, soybeans posted double-digit losses for the session. Today’s WASDE report was relatively neutral for beans, so after the data was released, the market may have gone back to trading South American weather. The forecast continues to show better chances for rain in some of the dry central areas of Brazil next week. However, the USDA did leave both Argentina and Brazil production unchanged at 48.1 and 153 mmt respectively.
On today’s report, the USDA lowered the soybean yield just slightly, from 53.2 to 52.1 bpa. Production also dropped a bit, from 4.586 bb to 4.582 bb. Harvested acreage was kept unchanged at 86.3 million and US 24/25 ending stocks were also in line with last month at 550 mb. As far as global numbers are concerned, the 23/24 carryout increased from 112.3 mmt to 112.4 mmt while 24/25 ending stocks were also bumped slightly from 134.6 mmt to 134.7 mmt.
Though crude oil attempted to rally back to positive territory earlier in the session, as of writing crude futures are about 20 to 40 cents lower per barrel. The initial comeback off the session low was supportive to bean oil and the grain complex, but if it continues to fade lower it may offer resistance instead.
USDA announced another flash sale of soybean before the day session on Friday. Unknown destinations purchased 132,000 MT (4.85 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. Soybean export demand for the marketing year has started at a good pace. This was the 13th published soybean sale since the marketing year began on September 1.

Above: The break below 1030 support puts the market at risk of trading lower and testing support between the 50-day moving average and 995. Should this area hold, and prices turn back higher, overhead resistance remains near 1070 and the 100-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat posted modest losses in all three US futures classes, alongside a lower close for Matif wheat futures. US wheat has been a follower of Paris milling wheat, so this may account for some of today’s weakness, especially given the fact that the WASDE report was mostly neutral. And despite the lower close today, further tensions in the Black Sea region may continue to offer support to the complex.
On today’s report US 24/25 wheat carryout came in at 812 mb, down from the average trade guess of 821 mb and the September figure of 828 mb. In addition, global 23/24 wheat carryout was pegged at 266.2 mmt, compared with 265.3 mmt last month. For 24/25 world wheat ending stocks were estimated at 257.7 mmt versus 257.2 mmt in September.
In addition to the above data, US wheat exports were kept unchanged today at 825 mb. Harvested acreage was increased from 37.9 to 38.5 million. Globally, Russian wheat production declined 1 mmt from the September estimate to 82 mmt, but Ukraine production slightly increased from 22.3 mmt to 22.9 mmt. Production estimates for Argentina and Australia were unchanged at 18 mmt and 32 mmt respectively.
Today traders also received PPI data, which indicated that producer prices were unchanged compared to last month, while most were looking for a 0.1% increase. This has the US Dollar Index down slightly; if it now begins to trend lower, that would be supportive to wheat prices.
SovEcon also released an estimate of Russian wheat production this morning. They now project it at 81.5 mmt, which is down 1.4 mmt from their last estimate. As stated above, the USDA is now at 82 mmt. In addition to this, the Russian ag minister was said to have met with major grain exporting companies today, likely to discuss an export quota. Their ag ministry did reveal a 41% increase to their wheat export tax, now at 1,872 Rubles per mt. This may be in an effort to slow down their grain export sales.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

After posting a seasonal low in late July, the wheat market staged a rally that began in late August triggered by crop concerns due to wet conditions in the EU, and smaller crops out of Russia and Ukraine. The nearly 80-cent rally from the August low to September high also saw Managed funds cover about two-thirds of their net short positions. While low Russian export prices continue to be a limiting factor for higher US prices, a new season is upon us with many uncertainties ahead that could keep volatility in the market. Additionally, US export sales remain ahead of the pace set last year and in 2022, and any increase in demand from lower World supplies could rally prices further.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the rally in wheat back in May, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is recommended for 2025 Chicago wheat. Recently, we recommended taking advantage of the wheat rally to sell more of your anticipated 2025 SRW production. While we continue to recommend holding the remaining July ’25 620 puts — after advising to exit the first half back in July — to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, we are targeting a 10-15% extension from our last sale to the 650–680 area in July ’25 to suggest making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The upside breakout in Chicago wheat was met with resistance near 617. Should prices turn back higher and close above 617, they could make a run towards the 645 resistance area. Otherwise, if prices drift lower, they could find support between 575 and 560.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

After hitting a market low in late August, the wheat market has rallied driven by crop concerns in the EU and reduced production from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in prices from late August through September also prompted Managed funds to cover a significant portion of their net short positions. Although low Russian export prices continue to cap potential gains for US wheat, the onset of a new season introduces a range of uncertainties that could fuel market volatility. Moreover, US export sales are currently outpacing last year’s figures and those from 2022, meaning that any uptick in demand due to tighter global supplies could further lift prices.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the upside breakout in KC wheat back in May, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 635 – 660 versus Dec ’24 to recommend further sales, while also targeting a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. While we still recommend holding the remaining half of the previously suggested July ’25 620 puts for downside protection on unsold bushels, we recently advised selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 HRW wheat production in light of the early fall rally in the wheat market. Looking ahead, our current strategy is to target the 700–725 range for additional sales, while also targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of the remaining 620 puts, in case the market turns toward new lows.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: December KC wheat has been consolidating between the recent high of 623 and 592 down below. A close above 623 could set the market up to test the 50% retracement level of 637 back toward the May high. Whereas a close below 592 could put the market at risk of retreating further, with support coming in near 581, and again between 571 and 561.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since posting a seasonal low in late August, Minneapolis wheat has traded at the upper end of the range that was established in early July. During this period, managed funds have covered about 40% of their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. While low export prices out of Russia continue to limit upside opportunities, concerns regarding world wheat supplies remain, which could increase opportunities for US exports and potentially drive prices higher.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the close below 712 support in June, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Now that the spring wheat harvest is behind us, and we are at the time of year when seasonal price trends tend to become more friendly, we are targeting the 675 – 700 range to recommend making additional sales.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we made two separate sales recommendations in July to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent breakout was met with resistance just below the 200-day moving average, a close above which could put the market on track to run towards 685. Below the market, initial support remains near the 100-day ma, with further support near 604.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil and N. Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather