10-10 Opening Update: Soybeans Lead Grains Lower

• Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1 cent to 417-1/4 and March futures are down 1 cent to 433.
• The October WASDE report, originally due yesterday, was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The October report is critical for updating yield and production estimates as harvest progresses.
• The U.S. Dollar is trading lower this morning after closing at a two month high yesterday. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have fallen overnight with November futures down 8 cents to 1014-1/4 and January futures down 8-1/4 cents to 1030-1/4.
• China’s expansion of export restrictions on rare earth metals has created doubts that an agreement on soybean purchases can be reached.
• The lack of guidance from the October WASDE report is pressuring the soybean market. Analysts expected to see a yield cut in the October report if it was released.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1-3/4 cents to 504-3/4. December KC wheat is down 2-1/2  cents to 487-1/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1 cent to 5.57.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 23 mmt, which would mark a record high. The increase reflects strong yield potential and favorable soil moisture following above-average rainfall. For comparison, USDA’s latest forecast stands at 19.5 mmt.
• Market intelligence firm Expana raised its EU soft wheat production estimate by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, still below USDA’s 140 mmt forecast. If realized, the crop would set a record high and come in 22.8 mmt above last year’s output.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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