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10-08 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans Start Higher, Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning. December corn futures are up 1 cent to 420-3/4 and March futures are up 1/4 cent to 436-1/2.
  • Private analysts released their own estimates for yield and national production. Current expectations call for yield to be lowered to 185 bushels per acre, with total production projected at 16.645 billion bushels. Ending stocks would remain burdensome at 2.231 billion bushels.
  • The U.S. Dollar is has broken through resistance this morning. A daily close above the resistance level could spark additional dollar strength, potentially limiting export demand.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

  • Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 3 cents to 1025 and January futures up 1-3/4 cents to 1040-3/4.
  • Harvest continues to advance rapidly across the U.S., with progress estimated at nearly 40% complete. This figure comes from private analysts, as the Crop Progress report has not been released due to the government shutdown.
  • Harvest pressure remains a key headwind for soybeans with weather in much of the Midwest expected be be ideal for further progress over the next five days.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat has started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are up 1/4 cent to 507. December KC wheat is down 1/4 cent to 491-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.52.
  • Bangladesh has agreed to purchase 220,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat at $308/mt on a DNF basis, as part of a government-to-government trade agreement established earlier this year between the two nations.
  • The dollar’s strength this week, reflecting a drop in the euro amid pollical turmoil in France, has curbed the competitiveness of U.S. grain on the world market.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

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