Corn is trading lower this morning as the rally seems to have come to a temporary peak in last week’s trade. Prices are consolidating around the 100-day moving average, but better Brazilian weather and harvest pressure in the US are suppressing a further rally.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is unchanged from last week. 87% of the crop is mature which compares to 87% a year ago, and 30% is now harvested.
In Ukraine, SovEcon has cut the forecast for the 2024 corn crop to 23.5 mmt from 24.6 mmt in its previous forecast citing dry weather. The export forecast for corn was also cut by 1.1 mmt due to lower production.
Soybeans are trading significantly lower this morning as radar and forecasts continue to show rain falling in Brazil with an emphasis on Mato Grosso which has been extremely dry. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that the good to excellent rating in soybeans fell 1 point from last week to 63%, but was in line with the trade estimate. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 91% a year ago, and 47% of the crop is now harvested.
In Brazil, soybean planting is 4.1% complete which compares to 7.8% last year and the 5-year average of 5.5%. In the largest growing state, Mato Grosso, planting is only 2.1% complete which compares to 14% last year at this time. Planting is certainly behind but should pick up pace as weather improves.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning and are nearly unchanged. Wheat has had more supportive fundamental news that corn and soybeans recently with global weather issues.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the winter wheat crop is 51% planted which is below the average trade guess and compares to 52% a year ago. 25% of the crop is emerged which is on par with last year’s pace as well as the 5-year average.
SovEcon has revised the Ukraine 24/25 wheat crop higher to 21.8 mmt and has also raised exports due to strong EU demand. The EU has been too wet and in Australia too dry. The southern plains in the US have been too dry as well.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
