10-07 Opening Update: Grains Mixed, Dollar Retests Recent Highs

• Corn futures are trading in a mixed fashion this morning. December corn futures are up 1/2 cent to 422-1/4 and March futures are down 1/4 cent to 438.
• The FGIS can continue to release export inspections despite the government shutdown. For the week ending Oct. 2, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.599 MMT. Cumulative 2025/26 inspections have reached 264.1 mb, up 56% from a year ago.
• The U.S. Dollar is retesting the highs from yesterday’s trading session as political and fiscal concerns outside the U.S. have foreign traders seeking a stable safe haven. Continued strength in the dollar could begin acting as a headwind to U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 2-1/4 cents to 1020 and January futures up 1-3/4 cents to 1037-1/2.
• China continues to shun U.S. soybeans as the trade war continues. The Trump administration is expected to announce a farmer bail out plan as early as today.
• Brazil’s soybean planting is advancing at the second-fastest pace on record. Dry conditions have supported steady fieldwork, though the return of showers next week could begin slowing progress.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/4 cent to 512-1/2. December KC wheat is down 1/2 cent to 495, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.56.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.6 mb bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 374.0 mb, up 18% from last year. Shipments are running ahead of USDA’s projected pace, with total exports forecast at 900 mb, up 9% year over year.
• Market analysts have estimated U.S. winter wheat planting progress at 50% complete as of Sunday. USDA’s crop progress report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

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