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10-06 Opening Update: Grains Start the Week Higher, U.S. Dollar Rises

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn futures are up 3/4 cent to 419-3/4 and March futures are up 1/2 cent to 436-1/4.
  • The U.S. Dollar saw a strong move this morning, with it recovering nearly all losses from the previous six trading sessions overnight. The dollar strengthening will serve as a headwind to U.S. grain exports as it makes U.S. products more expensive to foreign importers.
  • The increased corn stocks from last week’s Grain Stocks report will continue to weigh on the market. Harvest selling is expected to add further pressure. 

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

  • Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 2-1/2 cents to 1020-1/2 and January futures up 2-1/2 cents to 1039-1/2.
  • The soybean market will continue to look for guidance regarding any potential U.S. – China trade deals. So far, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans throughout the harvest window.
  • The U.S. Treasury Secretary made a statement last week that the federal government would support American farmers in light of China’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat has started the day higher. December Chicago wheat futures are up 1-1/4 cent to 516-1/2. December KC wheat is up 3/4 cent to 497-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.59.
  • The rebound in the U.S. Dollar will potentially limit wheat export strength. Additional strength in the dollar trade will begin to weigh on the wheat market.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that 93% of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated good to excellent, up 4 points from last week. BAGE also raised its production estimate to 22 mmt earlier this week, compared to USDA’s most recent forecast of 19.5 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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