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10-03 Opening Update: Grains Slightly Lower as the Government Shutdown Persists

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/2 cent to 421-1/4 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 437-1/4.
  • Although the October WASDE report is unlikely to be released next week due to the government shutdown, private analysts continue to release corn yield projections. Two major firms have lowered estimates below the September forecasts, reinforcing the market’s expectation of declining yields that would likely have been reflected in the next WASDE.
  • Strong export demand is expected to support corn cash prices as new bushels enter the pipeline. With government data unavailable, the cash market will be the key driver for corn futures.

Corn Futures Break Support: Following the release of the September Grains Stocks report, corn futures broke through the 100-day moving average and the lower end of the recent range. The 50-day moving average near 410 will now act as first support. A break below this level could open the door to a retest of the August lows near 370.

  • Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 2 cents to 1021-3/4 and January futures down 2-1/4 cents to 1039-1/2.
  • The soybean market continues to experience support from President Trump’s tweet indicating he intends to make soybeans a major topic of discussion when he meets with the Chinese president in four weeks.
  • StoneX raised its soybean yield estimate by 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa, lifting production by 69 mb to 4.326 bb. This is 25 mb above USDA’s September WASDE estimate.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat has started the day relatively quiet. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/2 cent to 514-1/4. December KC wheat is unchanged at 499, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.61.
  • Export sales data remain unavailable amid the U.S. government shutdown, and the October 9 WASDE report is at risk if the closure persists.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry now estimates 2026 winter wheat plantings at 5.2 million hectares, up 9% from its prior outlook, as farmers shift acres away from corn and sunflowers following recent drought.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

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