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10-02 Opening Update: Grains Quietly Lower Following Yesterday’s Reversal Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower to start the day after bouncing off sharp lows yesterday following a bullish tweet from President Trump.
  • December corn is down 3/4 cent at $4.15-3/4 while March is down 1/2 cent to $4.32-1/4. Prices are now back above the 40 and 50-day moving averages which should now act as support.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,400k and 2,000k tons with an average estimate of 1,700k tons. This would compare to 1,923k last week and 1,684k a year ago.

Corn Futures Break Support: Following the release of the September Grains Stocks report, corn futures broke through the 100-day moving average and the lower end of the recent range. The 50-day moving average near 410 will now act as first support. A break below this level could open the door to a retest of the August lows near 370.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after trading in a wild 26 cent range yesterday that was spurred by President Trump tweeting that some tariffs would go towards farmers and that he would discuss a soybean deal with China’s Xi in a month.
  • November soybeans are down 3-1/4 cents to $10.10 while March is down 2-3/4 cent to $10.43-1/2 and remain below all major moving averages. October soybean meal is down $0.10 to $264.60 and October soybean oil is unchanged at 49.75 cents.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 1,600k tons with an average estimate of 1,250k tons. This would compare to 725k last week and 1,445k tons a year ago.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with December Chicago wheat unchanged at $5.09-1/4, KC wheat down 1/2 cent to $4.95, and Minn wheat up 2-1/2 cents to $5.59-1/2. Prices rebounded from a new contract low yesterday.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 650k tons with an average estimate of 475k tons. This would compare to 540k last week and 444k a year ago.
  • The USDA has said that this months WASDE report will be suspended until further notice as a result of the government shutdown and a lapse of federal funding. The report was scheduled for October 9.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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