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10-01 Opening Update: Grains Lower, US Government Shuts Down

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading lower again and have now broken below all major moving averages. December corn is down 2-3/4 cents to $4.12-3/4 and March is down 3-1/4 to $4.29.
  • The government shut down at midnight last night as a spending bill was not able to be agreed upon. The news has pressured the US dollar which could be friendly for grains in the future.
  • This week’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings unchanged from last week at 66% good to excellent while trade was anticipating a 1-2 point drop. This is above the 5-year average of 64% at this time. 71% of the crop is mature and 18% is harvested, down 2 points from this time a year ago.

Corn Futures Consolidate Below Resistance: Following the release of the September WASDE report, corn futures pressed higher. Prices managed to break through the 100-day moving average but have since begun to consolidate below strong resistance at the July 7 price gap. The first point of support lies near 420, at the 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have broken below the $10.00 level in November, below all major moving averages. November is down 5-1/2 cents to $9.96-1/4, and March is down 5-1/4 cents to $10.30-3/4. October soybean meal is down $2.80 to $262.90 and October soybean oil is up 0.17 cents to 49.04 cents.
  • According to US lawmakers, China will not buy US soybeans anytime soon following a briefing with the US ambassador to China. 
  • Crop Progress saw soybean crop ratings improve one point from last week to 62% while trade estimates were expecting a decline. 79% of the of the crop is dropping leaves and 19% is harvested.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day with December Chicago wheat down 5 cents to $5.03, KC wheat is down 6-1/4 cents to $4.91-1/2, and Minn wheat is down 1-3/4 cents to $5.61.
  • Yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report was bearish for wheat with stocks above the average trade guess at 2.12 billion bushels which compared to the trade average of 2.054 bb.
  • The Crop Progress Report saw that the winter wheat crop is now 34% planted which is up from 20% last week but behind from the 5-year average slightly. 13% of the crop is emerged which is up from 4% last week and is on par with the average.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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