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1-3 End of Day: Grains Tumble Friday on Poor Export Sales

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25 450.75 -8.75
JUL ’25 461.25 -9
DEC ’25 440.75 -5.75
Soybeans
MAR ’25 991.75 -20.25
JUL ’25 1016.5 -21.25
NOV ’25 1008.25 -19.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25 529.25 -16.5
JUL ’25 549.25 -15.25
JUL ’26 611.25 -6
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25 539 -12.75
JUL ’25 556.25 -13.25
JUL ’26 597.5 -12.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25 577.75 -11.75
JUL ’25 595 -11
SEP ’25 605.5 -10.25
S&P 500
MAR ’25 5993.5 77
Crude Oil
MAR ’25 73.23 0.73
Gold
APR ’25 2680.5 -13

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn fell Friday on weak export sales and broad commodity weakness, marking its first weekly loss after four straight weeks of gains.
  • Poor export sales and improved Argentine weather pushed soybeans sharply lower. Despite Friday’s losses, March soybean futures ended the week 2 cents higher.
  • Soybean meal led Friday’s losses, dropping over 3.7%, with soybean oil also lower but by a smaller margin.
  • Wheat futures plunged on marketing-year-low export sales. March contracts for Chicago and spring wheat hit new lows, with KC wheat nearing similar levels.
  • To see the US 2-day snowfall forecast as well as the 30-day accumulated precipitation percent of normal map for South America scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

Active

Sell MAR ’25 Cash

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Corn Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
  • The March 2024 contract has rallied 30 cents from the Thanksgiving low and has recently traded to its highest level since late June. Looking back even farther, corn is roughly 23% higher than the August low when looking at the continuous corn chart. While strong demand has been a main driver of this rally, we are starting to see corn demand slowing at these higher prices. Therefore, Grain Market Insider sees this as an advantageous area to reward this rally by selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Target the 455 – 460 versus Dec. ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2025 crop.
  • The strong demand tone for US corn continues to provide support to the market, but this higher price will likely buy additional planted acres in the US for 2025.
  • Major resistance for the December 2025 chart sits near the 480 futures level, a close above this area would be a potential breakout of the current range.  
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options in the 470–490 range versus Dec’25 to protect current sales against a potential extended rally.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

  • The corn market posted strong losses to end the week, and sellers were extremely active to end the week in the grain markets. A weak export sales report, strong dollar, and heavy selling in the soybean and wheat markets weighed on corn futures.  The March contract finished the week 3 ¼ cents lower, breaking a 4-week streak of higher closes.
  • Failure to break resistance at $4.60 in the March contract triggered long liquidation. The weak close suggests potential for further selling in Sunday night’s trade.
  • Weekly corn export sales disappointed, with 777,000 MT (30.6 mb) reported for the week ending Dec. 26, below expectations. Mexico remained the top buyer.
  • The U.S. dollar index had a strong week, trading to 26-month high this week. The strong dollar limits the corn market as the combination of a strong dollar and higher corn prices may impact demand. In addition, wheat future trading to new lows on the session also brings demand concerns as cheaper wheat can replace corn in feed rations.
  • The USDA will release the next WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday Jan 10. The report will be closely watched to see the available stockpiles, and the current demand tone in the corn market. The corn market may trade very choppy next week going into those reports.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • We are in the time frame when seasonal opportunities typically improve due to the South American growing season.
  • Any negative change in Brazil’s or Argentina’s growing conditions could send the soybean market higher, target the 1060-1080 versus March ‘25 area to make additional sales against your 2024 crop.
  • For those with capital needs, consider making these sales into price strength.

2025 Crop:

  • We are in the window when targets for additional sales on next year’s crop will start being posted. Though patience is still recommended since they could be set as late as early spring.
  • Be on the lookout for a recommendation to buy call options. A rally to the upper 1100 range versus Nov ’25 could increase the likelihood of an extended rally, and we would recommend buying calls to prepare for that possibility.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are currently planned as we monitor the market for more favorable conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after a poor export sales report and an Argentinian weather forecast that has shown increased moisture over the next week. March futures were unable to take out yesterday’s high and were dragged down primarily by lower soybean meal, but soybean oil was slightly lower as well.
  • Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales increase by 17.8 million bushels for 24/25 and none for 25/26. This was below the lowest trade estimate and below last week’s sales. Last week’s export shipments of 62.6 mb were above the 23.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, the Republic of South Africa, and Spain.
  • US soybean crushings came in at 210 million bushels for November, which was above the average trade guess and was 5% higher than the same period last year. Crude oil production was 7.1% higher than the same period last year.
  • On January 1 there were 331 deliveries against January soybeans for a total of 820 deliveries. There have been 2,097 deliveries against January bean meal and 820 deliveries against January soybean oil.

Above: The recent break in prices found initial support near 950. Initial overhead resistance lies just above the market near 1030 with additional resistance between 1060 and 1075.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures saw double-digit losses across all classes, pressured by technical selling, improved rain forecasts for Argentina, and weak export sales. Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat, with March Paris wheat breaking below its 200-day moving average, further weighed on U.S. markets.
  • The USDA reported an increase of only 5.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 with 0 mb for 25/26. Additionally, shipments last week at 14.0 mb fell under the 18.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Total sales commitments have reached 621 mb, which is up 11% from a year ago, but behind the USDA’s estimate of a 20% increase.
  • Despite today’s dip, the U.S. Dollar Index remains near its highest level since November 2022, adding pressure to wheat markets. A record-low Russian ruble further complicates U.S. export competitiveness.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. With harvest underway in the southern hemisphere and winter wheat into dormancy in the northern hemisphere, this can historically be a slow time of the year for the wheat market.
  • For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
  • If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is advised, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing. It may be some time before target ranges are set for the 2026 crop.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target the 635 – 660 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls,target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.  

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Cash

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Puts

2024

No New Action

2025

No New Action

2026

No New Action

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

2024 Crop:

  • Target a rally to the 610 – 635 area versus March ‘25 to sell more of your 2024 crop. We are at that time of year when seasonal price trends become more favorable.
  • For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.

2025 Crop:

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to liquidate half of the remaining open July ’25 620 KC wheat puts at approximately 86 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Back in July Grain Market Insider recommended selling half of the original position to offset the cost of the now remaining puts. Our research shows that, with the July ’25 futures contract down roughly 14% from its October high of 653.75, this is an attractive risk/reward point to exit half of the remaining July ’25 620 KC Wheat put options as we approach the winter dormancy period.
  • Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
  • Continue holding the remaining half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit half of these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.

2026 Crop:

  • Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.