All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
MAR ’25	482	-4.5
JUL ’25	493.75	-3.75
DEC ’25	458.25	-2.75

Soybeans
MAR ’25	1045	-10.75
JUL ’25	1070.25	-9.25
NOV ’25	1043.25	-5.5

Chicago Wheat
MAR ’25	535.5	-8.5
JUL ’25	561.5	-8.5
JUL ’26	618.25	-7

K.C. Wheat
MAR ’25	553.25	-6.25
JUL ’25	572.25	-6.25
JUL ’26	616.5	-4.75

Mpls Wheat
MAR ’25	585.75	-9.5
JUL ’25	607.75	-8.5
SEP ’25	619	-7.75

S&P 500
MAR ’25	6016.5	-116.75

Crude Oil
MAR ’25	73.05	-1.61

Gold
APR ’25	2768.5	-38.1

Grain Market Highlights

Corn futures ended lower on Monday following other grains lower despite a daily flash sale of corn to Mexico.
Soybeans finished lower Monday after failing at upside resistance last week. Better than expected rains for Argentina over the weekend pressured the entire bean complex with soybean meal posting the largest losses.
Wheat futures started the week off on the wrong foot following losses in corn and soybeans. Monday appeared to be a “risk-off” day across all markets as stocks futures fell hard along with most commodities.
To see the updated U.S. and South America 7-day precipitation forecasts as well as the 30-day percent of normal precipitation map for South America scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Next Sales Target Range: Eyeing the 495 to 515 range for the March ’25 contract.
Modest Weekly Gain: Following two strong weekly gains totaling 33 cents, the March ’25 contract managed a modest two-cent uptick last week, closing slightly higher overall.
Resistance Levels: On the front-month continuous chart, key resistance lies between the September 2021 low of 497.50 and the May 1996 high of 513.50.
March ’25 Contract Levels: Last week, the March ’25 contract revisited the 487–508 range—where Grain Market Insider issued its first three sales recommendations for the 2024 corn crop during summer 2023 and spring 2024. So far, four sales recommendations have been made for the 2024 crop. If you haven’t acted on all four yet, now is a great time to catch up. Prices rebounded to a high last week of 494.50 vs March ‘25, and despite weakness in the last two trading days, the market remains over 100 cents higher than the August low on the front-month continuous chart.

2025 Crop:

Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling another portion of your 2025 corn crop.
First Resistance: Resistance is now pegged at last week’s high of 465.50. On Thursday, the December ’25 contract managed to break above the October 2024 high of 459.75, but the breakout proved short-lived, with prices closing back below 459.75 today.
Downside Risk: A confirmed close above last week’s high of 465.50 would validate the breakout over 459.75. However, failure to sustain momentum above this level increases the likelihood of a false breakout. In that scenario, the market risks returning to range-bound trading, with support at the lower end of the range near 428.00.
Opportunity: If the December ’25 contract succeeds in rallying above 465.50, a test of the next major resistance area of 480 should be an easy task. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential Grain Market Insider sales recommendation.
Opposing Fundamentals: Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to underpin the market. However, higher prices could incentivize increased U.S. planted acreage for the 2025 crop, potentially adding headwinds.
Buying Call Options: Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance in the 480 area. This strategy would provide cover to current sales and allow you to benefit from any extended rally.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are anticipated for the crop to be planted in spring 2026 for at least another 3–5 weeks.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn futures ended Monday lower, pressured by weakness in other grains. The March contract closed 12 cents below its recent high, marking its second consecutive session of losses as upward momentum stalled.
Better-than-expected weekend rains in Argentina weighed on corn and soybean markets. Forecasts for February also look favorable for crop production in areas previously stressed by heat and dryness.
Demand remains robust, with the USDA reporting a flash sale of 139,000 MT (5.5 mb) of corn to Mexico for the current marketing year. Weekly export inspections reached 1.247 MMT (49.1 mb), 31% ahead of last year and trending above USDA export targets.
The key second corn crop planting pace in Brazil is behind expectations as approximately 2.2% of the crop was planted as of last week. Though still early, a later planting window could push the crop’s finishing point past a key time window closer to maturity and possibly limit production.
Managed hedge funds continue to grow their long position in the corn market, adding nearly 20,000 net long contracts to a total position of 311,678 net long contracts. This is the fourth most bullish position ever held for this date.

Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 470, with additional support near previous resistance at 450. Larger overhead resistance now comes in just below 500.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 19,450 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net long 311,678 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Sell MAR ’25 Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your 2024 soybean crop.
Sales Target Range Reached: The March ’25 contract pushed further into the 1060–1080 target range last week, reaching an intraweek high of 1073.50. However, the gains proved short-lived, with the contract closing below the January 14th high of 1064. Out of three trading days spent in the 1060–1080 range, two ended with bearish reversals, closing below 1060. This highlights the strength of the 1060–1080 range as a key resistance area, which factored prominently into last week’s sales recommendation.
From the Lows: Despite recent softening, the March ’25 contract is still up roughly one dollar from its December low of 947.00. This remains a solid rally and a valuable opportunity to act if you haven’t already.
Fund Activity: Funds have aggressively covered short positions and shifted to a net-long stance on soybeans. This shift reinforces the idea that now remains an opportune time to capitalize on the rally.

2025 Crop:

Target Range: The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.
Call Buying: Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No sales recommendations are expected until spring.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans closed lower for the second consecutive session after March futures failed to hold above the 200-day moving average last week. Long liquidation by funds may have followed a weekend of uncertainty, with President Trump briefly imposing and rescinding tariffs on Colombia, creating a bearish sentiment for grains.
Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with meal picking up the larger losses. Rains fell over Argentina this weekend, which was sorely needed, but soybean oil may be under pressure from the 45z tax credits that may not be implemented.
While Argentina has received needed rain, Brazil continues to rain through what should be the start of harvest. The country is reportedly just 4% completed with harvest compared to the average of 13% for this time of year. Rain is forecast to continue over the next 15 days.
Friday’s CFTC saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 5,497 contracts as of January 21. This left them with a net long position of 40,330 contracts. Since that day, they are estimated to have sold approximately 2,000 contracts.

The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 5,497 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a netlong40,330 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat posted losses alongside the broader grain complex as markets turned risk-averse. Weakness was tied to a sharp selloff in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down over 700 points. The drop followed news of Chinese AI company DeepSeek releasing a cheaper, more efficient model, raising concerns about the valuation of U.S. AI firms.
Weekly wheat inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 season total to 506 million bushels, up 25% year-over-year. Inspections remain ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s export estimate of 850 million bushels, which is 20% higher than last year.
The Commodity Weather Group estimates up to 15% of the U.S. winter wheat crop may have been killed by recent sub-freezing temperatures. Areas with little to no snow cover were hit hardest, with 65% of HRW and 35% of SRW regions reportedly affected.
Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has indicated that their country intends to plant 11.1 million hectares of grain for 2025, which is in line with last year. Of that total, winter grains (which will consist mostly of wheat) are expected to reach 5.2 million hectares.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Target Range: Grain Market Insider continues to target 680–705 vs. March ’25 for the next sale.
Sales Recommendations to Date: Three sales recommendations have been made so far for the 2024 Chicago wheat crop. The current target range aligns with two previous recommendations. If you are behind on sales, this range offers a good opportunity to make a heavier sale.
Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

Target Range: The next target range for a sale is 690–715 vs. July ’25.
Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has taken a slightly more aggressive approach with sales for the 2025 crop, leveraging market carry during the overall downtrend from the October high. The average price of the four sales made so far vs. July ’25 is approximately 651. A sale within the current target range would increase that average.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

Recent Sales Recommendation: Grain Market Insider has recently recommended selling the first portion of the 2026 Chicago wheat crop.
Next Target Range: The next target range for a sale on the 2026 crop is 700–720 vs July ‘26.
Carry & Increased Volume: The growing daily trading volume and approximately 50 cents of additional carry in the July ’26 contract compared to the July ’25 contract make the July ’26 contract an early opportunity to monitor closely.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,601 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 91,792 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Target Range: 650 – 700 vs. March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
Sales Recommendations to Date: Grain Market Insider has issued only two sales recommendations to date, reflecting the significant yield uncertainty before last year’s harvest and the limited post-harvest sales opportunities. These two recommendations, though widely spaced, averaged approximately 719 vs. the July ’24 futures. A sale at the next target range will reduce the average, but upside expectations remain tempered for now
Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

Target Range: 640 – 665 range vs. July ‘25 to make an additional sale for your 2025 HRW wheat crop.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until late spring or early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,475 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 35,131 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

2024 Crop:

Potential Target Range: A rally to the 610–635 range vs. March ’25 is the initial target for another sale of your 2024 HRS wheat crop. However, the near-record short position held by Funds suggests that this target range could adjust higher as future price action unfolds.
Open Call Options: If you hold the previously recommended KC July ’25 860 and 1020 call options, continue to hold them. While actionable targets are still distant, these options have approximately five months remaining until their expiration in the third week of June.

2025 Crop:

Target Range: 700 – 750 is the target range vs September ‘25.
Open Put Options: One-quarter of the initially recommended KC 620 July ’25 put option position remains. Scale-out recommendations were provided for the other three-quarters in July and December. The current plan is to continue to hold the remaining position.

2026 Crop:

Hold Recommendation: No first sales recommendations are expected until early summer.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, January 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,134 contracts between January 14 – January 21, bringing their total position to a net short 27,164 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

South America 30-day precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil and N. Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.