1-21 End of Day: Grains End Mixed as Argentina Outlook Turns Dry
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Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures slipped lower on Wednesday, despite the announcement of two flash export sales earlier in the day.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher on a drier than normal outlook for Argentina and southern Brazil over the next 10 days.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City finishing lower while Minneapolis managed a modest gain. A late-session rebound in the U.S. dollar pressured wheat into the close.
- The USDA announced that farmers who qualify for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026.
- To see updated U.S and South American weather maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 470 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March 2026 futures close above 475 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Nine sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 456.64.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Key resistance for the macro trend sits at 475 vs March 2026. A close above 475 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 466 against December 2026 futures to sell another portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 487 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- A Plan A target has been added.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 487 vs December 2026. A close above 487 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures posted a disappointing close, as weakness in the wheat market and an ample supply outlook pushed prices off early-session highs. March corn 421-3/4 down 2 cents, while May corn 429-3/4 down 1-1/2 cents.
- Corn spreads remain under pressure due to the large supply backdrop, despite a solid demand pace. The reversal off the session high produced a bearish reversal on the March chart. Combined with continued weakness in wheat, the technical setup leaves corn vulnerable to a test of the report-day low.
- USDA announced two flash export corn sales Wednesday morning: Colombia purchased 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) and an Unknown Destination bought 195,000 MT (7.7 mb) for the current marketing year.
- The Argentina corn crop could be facing some short-term weather challenges with forecasts of hot and dry weather across parts of the growing region.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1151 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 1067.75.
- Changes:
- The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 1151 from 1162.
- Notes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1224 against November 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.
- Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1142 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation has been made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1142 vs November ‘26. A close above 1142 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to positive trade talks between the U.S. and China. Dry weather in Argentina may have been supportive as well. March soybeans were up 11-1/2 cents to $10.64-1/2 while November is up 10-1/2 cents to $10.74-1/2. March soybean meal was down $0.20 to $291.40, while soybean oil gained 1.45 cents to 54.01 cents.
- Weather models continue to favor a wetter pattern across central Brazil, limiting near-term production concerns as soybeans enter the critical pod-filling stage. Southern Brazil and Argentina, however, are forecast to trend drier than normal over the next 10 days.
- Trade optimism resurfaced Monday, as Treasury Secretary Bessent held informal discussions with China’s Vice Premier. Additionally, U.S. Trade Representative Greer signaled the potential for another round of trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s planned meeting with President Xi in April.
- Short covering rally in soybean oil helped push soybean futures higher on the day. Optimism regarding the bio-fuel mandate has triggered strong short cover in the soybean oil market in recent trading session as prices have reached the level of September 16 highs.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City finishing lower while Minneapolis managed a modest gain. A late-session rebound in the U.S. dollar—following comments from President Trump indicating he would not use force to obtain control of Greenland—pressured wheat into the close. March Chicago wheat 507-3/4 down 2-1/2 cents, March Kansas City 519-3/4 down 3-1/4 cents, and March MIAX 563-3/4 up 1-3/4 cents.
- The market continues to show limited concern over winterkill risk, despite an extreme cold front expected to impact the Midwest and Southern Plains in the coming days. Heavy snow and ice are forecast for parts of the Southern Plains this weekend; snowfall may provide some insulation, though areas receiving ice or minimal cover could still see crop damage.
- Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat exports through mid-January totaled 8.2 MMT, down 20% year over year, as ongoing Russian attacks have disrupted shipping capacity. Despite near-term declines, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister stated that long-term export volumes are not expected to be materially impacted.
- Much like in the U.S., Ukraine has seen very cold weather and icy conditions over the past couple of weeks. This has caused concern about damage to their winter wheat crop, primarily in southern and eastern areas. Reportedly, freezing rain has led to thick layers of ice in crop fields.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.25 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 631.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs March ’26. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 585.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 690 vs July ‘27 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 595.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- None.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 563 to make the next cash sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 596.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 against March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Other Charts / Weather
