1-16 End of Day: Export Demand and Weather Risks Drive Grain Markets Higher Friday
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Fresh export demand supported corn futures on Friday, with the USDA announcing seven export flash sales during the week.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans drew support from strength in corn and wheat, with worsening Argentine crop conditions and a drier forecast adding late-week weather premium.
- 🌾 Wheat: All three U.S. wheat classes finished the session higher, erasing the prior day’s losses as short-covering drove prices into the weekend.
- The USDA announced that farmers who qualify for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program can expect payments to be released by February 28, 2026.
- To see updated U.S and South American weather maps as well as the updated U.S. drought monitor scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 470 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if March 2026 futures close above 475 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Nine sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 456.64.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Key resistance for the macro trend sits at 475 vs March 2026. A close above 475 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 466 against December 2026 futures to sell another portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if December 2026 futures close above 487 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- A Plan A target has been added.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 487 vs December 2026. A close above 487 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures finished the week higher, supported by an uptick in flash export sales and end-of-week profit-taking. March corn futures settled 4-1/2 cents higher at 424-3/4, while the May contract gained 4-1/2 cents to 432. Despite Friday’s strength, March futures declined 21 cents on the week.
- Despite the session strength, March corn futures traded 2 ½ cents off the 427 ¼ high for the session and failed to hold above the 425-price level. The 425-price level was the previous high for the past two sessions.
- USDA announced two flash sales of export corn on Friday morning. Japan purchased 120,000 MT and Unknown Destination picked up 298,000 MT of corn for the current marketing year.
- U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global export market following the recent price break. Including Friday’s announcements, USDA has reported seven flash corn sales this week. The U.S. is expected to retain this advantage into late spring, when South American harvest pressure begins to increase competition.
- Argentina corn production is forecasted to hit a record level of 63 MMT for the growing season as favorable weather and acreage expansion are supporting the potential record production.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1151 against March 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 1067.75.
- Changes:
- The Plan A sale target has been lowered to 1151 from 1162.
- Notes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 1224 against November 2026 futures to sell a portion of your crop.
- Plan B:
- Sell a portion of your crop if November 2026 futures break below 1045.
- Buy call options if November 2026 futures close above 1142 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation has been made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Key support for November 2026 futures is at 1045 – a break below this level would indicate the potential for a trend change. A stop is used to allow the current market trend to continue developing and will only trigger a sale recommendation if prices close below this level.
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1142 vs November ‘26. A close above 1142 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the week higher, marking a third consecutive session of gains. March soybean futures added 4¾ cents to close at 1057-3/4. March soybean meal rose $0.80 per ton to $290, while soybean oil futures faced light profit-taking late in the week, slipping 0.36 cents to close at 52.61 cents.
- Despite closing lower on Friday, soybean oil led the complex higher for the week, posting its strongest weekly performance since June. Market support stemmed from expectations that the Trump administration’s EPA will announce an updated biofuel policy by early March, including higher renewable blending targets.
- NOPA December soybean crush reached a record 225 mb, up 18.4 mb from a year ago and marking the second-largest monthly crush total on record, behind October 2025. Cumulative crush is running at an all-time high, 7% ahead of last year’s pace, and is expected to account for more than 60% of U.S. soybean usage in the current marketing year.
- Soybean crop conditions in Argentina deteriorated over the past week, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Good-to-excellent ratings fell to 61%, down 4% week over week, with the agency noting increasing dryness stress. The two-week outlook calls for below-normal rainfall as the crop enters the pod-fill stage.
- Weekly performance within the soybean complex was mixed: March soybean futures declined 4¾ cents, March soybean oil futures gained $2.92, and March soybean meal futures dropped $13.70 per ton.
- Strong domestic crush demand and renewed optimism around biofuel policy are providing underlying support to the soybean complex, particularly soybean oil. Sustained strength in soybean oil and confirmation of South American production losses would be needed to drive a broader upside move in soybean futures.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three wheat classes finished the day higher, erasing yesterday’s losses. Short covering seemed to be the cause for the rebound in prices to close out the week. March Chicago closed 7-1/2 cents higher to 518, March KC was up 10 cents to 527-1/4, and March MIAX closed at 565, up 2-1/2 cents.
- The International Grains Council raised its Argentine wheat production estimate by 4.2 MMT to a record 27.7 MMT. The group also increased its Canadian wheat forecast by 3.4 MMT, adding further pressure to global supply expectations.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange cut their Brazilian wheat production estimate by 0.1 mmt to 7.9 mmt. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 8.0 mmt.
- Colder temperatures are forecast to move into the U.S. Plains this weekend and persist into next week, raising concerns about potential stress to the winter wheat crop, particularly in areas with limited snow cover.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
Active
Sell JUL ’27 Cash
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 591.25 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 631.25.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 594 vs March ’26. A close above 594 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 585.75 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 futures close above 669 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 669 vs July 2026. A close above 669 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2027 Crop:
- Continued Opportunity: Sell a portion of your 2027 Chicago wheat crop today.
- Plan A:
- Target 690 vs July ‘27 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 595.75.
- Changes:
- A recommendation to sell a portion of your 2027 Chicago wheat crop has been added.
- Notes:
- July 2027 Chicago wheat futures have rebounded more than 13 cents from their mid-December low, and the market is offering nearly 50 cents of carry versus July 2026. That combination supports selling a portion of the 2027 Chicago wheat crop at current levels.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 563 to make the next cash sale.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of approximately 596.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 against March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 617 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- None.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 590.50 vs March ‘26. A close above 590.50 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if July 2026 KC wheat closes at or above 648.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 654.
- Changes:
- None.
- Notes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 648 vs July 2026. A close above 648 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Other Charts / Weather
