1-13 End of Day: Grains Start the Week Higher
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| MAR ’25 | 476.5 | 6 |
| JUL ’25 | 490 | 8 |
| DEC ’25 | 457.25 | 7 |
| Soybeans | ||
| MAR ’25 | 1053 | 27.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 1078 | 28.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1051 | 20 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 545 | 14.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 567.5 | 13 |
| JUL ’26 | 628.75 | 10.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 561 | 9.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 579.5 | 10.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 623 | 7.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| MAR ’25 | 593.5 | 9.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 609.75 | 8.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 620.75 | 8.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| MAR ’25 | 5862 | -4.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| MAR ’25 | 77.34 | 1.59 |
| Gold | ||
| APR ’25 | 2704.2 | -38.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures continued their march higher on Monday, building on momentum from Friday’s bullish USDA report.
- Soybean and soybean meal futures opened the week with sharp gains as weekend forecasts for Argentina turned warmer and drier, raising concerns about crop stress. Soybean oil also rallied, adding strength to the complex.
- Wheat futures closed higher across all classes on Monday despite the U.S. Dollar hitting another near-term high. Spillover strength from surging corn and soybean markets provided key support for the wheat rally.
- See the 7-day GEFS accumulated precipitation anomaly as well as the GRACE-based shallow ground water drought indicator for South America, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended selling a portion of your 2024 corn crop.
- With March futures knocking on the door of their highest level since May 2024 and continuous corn up roughly 25% from the pre-harvest low in August, it is time to reward this rally.
2025 Crop:
- NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop.
- The December ’25 corn contract has entered the target range of 455–475.
- First resistance is just under 3 cents away at the October 2024 high of 459.75. Selling near this level is advisable in case this resistance halts further gains in the December ’25 contract.
- If the December ’25 contract breaks above 459.75, the next major resistance level is around 480. Selling near 480 would be the next target for a potential sales recommendation.
- Strong demand for U.S. corn continues to support the market, but higher prices may incentivize additional planted acres in the U.S. for 2025.
- Keep an eye out for a recommendation to purchase call options if prices close above major resistance. This strategy would protect current sales while allowing you to benefit from any extended rally.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is advised. No sales recommendations are planned currently, as we continue to monitor the market for more favorable conditions.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures extended gains following Friday’s bullish USDA report. Support from strong buying in both soybean and wheat markets pushed corn prices to their highest close since June.
- Money flow continues to move into the corn market as hedge funds have grown their long position, supported by the demand tone and friendly USDA data. Expectations are that hedge funds are 280,000-300,000 net long contracts. The latest Commitment of Traders report will be released on Monday afternoon.
- Corn export inspections reached 1.441 MMT (56.7 mb) last week, surpassing analyst expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 26% ahead of last year and continue to outpace the USDA’s forecasted pace.
- Strong producer selling in both U.S. and international markets could cap the corn rally by boosting export competition. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index climbed to a new high on Monday, adding headwinds for exports.
Above: The uptrend in the corn market remains intact. Initial support below the market lies near 450, with additional support near 434. Initial overhead resistance comes in near 460 with additional resistance near 475.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- We remain focused on the 1060–1080 range versus March ’25 for recommending additional sales of your 2024 crop.
- Key reasons for targeting this higher range include:
- Funds holding significant short positions across the soy complex—soybeans, meal, and oil.
- The entire soy complex is macro-oversold, a condition that historically favors buying over selling.
- Seasonal opportunities may improve as the South American growing season progresses.
2025 Crop:
- The target range for issuing the first sales recommendation is 1070–1100 versus Nov ’25.
- Keep an eye out for a potential call option recommendation. Since major resistance lies within this range, it’s possible that both a sales recommendation and a call option recommendation could be issued around the same time.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. No sales recommendations are planned until at least the peak of the U.S. growing season.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for the second consecutive trading session with the March contract now comfortably above the 100-day moving average with the 200-day as its potential next target. Trade is riding the sugar high from Friday’s WASDE report and potentially dry Argentinian weather.
- Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean meal led the entire complex higher as concerns arise over the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil with Argentina facing dangerously low soil moisture levels. Higher crude oil prices today were likely supportive to soybean oil.
- Friday’s WASDE report saw the national soybean yield fall by 1 bpa which was significantly more than the average trade estimate. Ending stocks have fallen to just 380 mb from 470 mb in December’s report. World ending stocks were lowered as well.
- One week from today, President Trump will be inaugurated, and he has stated that 100 executive orders would begin on his first day. While most will likely focus on border security, Tariffs on Chinese goods will likely also be a focus, and this could have a negative impact on trade relations.
Above: The 1000 level should act as support on a break lower. Initial overhead resistance lies near the last September highs between 1060 and 1075.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat finished higher in all three classes, led by double digit gains in Chicago. This rally occurred despite a new near-term high for the US Dollar today, and relatively neutral wheat data on Friday’s report. Spillover support from higher corn, and sharply higher soybeans, offered strength to wheat.
- Weekly wheat inspections at 10.6 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 478 mb, which is up 25% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, and exports are estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from the year prior.
- According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values remained unchanged last week at $237 per MT on a FOB basis. SovEcon reported Russian grain exports totaling 410,000 MT for the week, with wheat accounting for 400,000 MT. Russia also reduced its wheat export tax by 2.3% to 4,245 Rubles per MT through January 21.
- Ukraine’s total 2025 grain production may reach between 55-65 mmt, according to UkrAgroConsult. For reference, last year’s grain harvest was 54.3 mmt. In addition, the amount of grain for export is estimated to be between 40-50 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
New Alert
Sell JUL ’26 Cash
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Target 680 – 705 vs March ‘25 to make the next sale.
- For those holding open July ’25 860 and 1020 call options that were recommended in May, target a selling price of about 73 cents for the 860 calls to offset the cost of the remaining 1020 calls. Holding the 1020 calls will provide protection for existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 Chi wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 Chi wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
- Patience is advised regarding sales, as we monitor the market for improved conditions and timing.
2026 Crop:
- NEW ACTION – Grain Market Insider recommends selling the first portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop.
- With daily trading volume in the July ‘26 contract increasing to start the New Year, and nearly 90 cents of carry between the March ‘25 and July ‘26 contracts, we recommend making your first sale for the crop you’ll plant this fall.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Front-month Chicago wheat remains largely rangebound between 540 and 577. A close above the 577–586 resistance area could set up a retest of 617, while a close below 536 might lead to a slide toward the 521–514 support zone.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Target the 650 – 700 versus March ‘25 area to sell more of your 2024 HRW wheat crop.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls, and still give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Target the 640 – 665 range versus July ’25 to make additional 2025 HRW wheat sales.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
- If the market rallies considerably, look to protect sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: KC wheat remains largely rangebound between 536 and 583, with initial overhead resistance near the 100-day moving average around 568. A close above this level and beyond 583 could set the market up for a test of the 590–595 area, while a close below 536 could put prices at risk of falling to the 525 level.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
2024 Crop:
- Potentially targeting a rally to the 610–635 range versus March ’25 for additional sales of your 2024 crop. While this is the initial area of interest, the near-record short position held by the Funds suggests that this target range could shift as future price action develops.
- For those holding the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 calls, target a selling price of approximately 71 cents on the 860 calls. This would achieve a net-neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls and provide confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
2025 Crop:
- Grain Market Insider recently recommended liquidating a portion of previously recommended put options.
- Look to protect existing sales by buying upside calls in the 745 – 770 range versus July ’25 KC wheat if the market turns higher and rallies considerably. This will also give you confidence to sell more bushels at higher prices.
- Continue holding the remaining quarter of the previously recommended July ’25 KC wheat 620 puts to provide downside protection for unsold bushels. Additionally, target the upper 400 range versus July ’25 KC wheat to exit these remaining puts if the market makes new lows.
2026 Crop:
- Patience is recommended. It may be some time before targets are set for the 2026 crop, as we continue to monitor the market for better conditions and timing.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: March Minneapolis wheat is rangebound between 585 and 613. A close above 613 could trigger a rally toward 655, with resistance at 624 and 637. A close below 585 may lead to a decline toward 568.
Other Charts / Weather
